Poultry Meat and Products
The 2001 production forecast for selected poultry meat countries is at a record level, led by gains in the United States and China. Total poultry meat trade for 2001 is projected to continue expanding, as exports are up 4 percent and imports up 6 percent from last year. For 2001, U.S. exports are forecast to increase by 2 percent from the previous year due to increased imports from Russia, Hong Kong and China, benefitting from continued demand for inexpensive poultry meat.
Production of poultry meat in the major countries is forecast at 59.6 million tons for 2001, up 3 percent from 2000. Across the spectrum of major poultry producing countries, the United States and Brazil are up 2 and 6 percent, respectively. Production is also forecast higher for China, Thailand, Mexico, and the European Union (EU).
Total 2001consumption of poultry meat is projected at 58.5 million tons, up 3 percent from 2000. The two largest consumers are the United States and China, projected to be up 2 percent each from the previous year. Increases in consumption are also projected for Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, and Russia. Consumption of poultry meat in the EU is also set higher in 2001 because of increased demand spurred by the BSE effects.
The export of poultry meat by selected countries for 2001 is forecast to shift upward to 6.8 million tons, a 4-percent increase from 2000. This increase is largely driven by strong exports from the United States and Brazil. A decline of 1 percent from 2000 in poultry exports is projected for the EU because of an increase in domestic consumption, as consumers respond to the BSE crisis.
The United States poultry meat exports for 2001 are forecast at 2.9 million tons, up 2 percent from last year. The major markets that are expected to boost U.S. poultry meat export sales include Russia, Hong Kong, and China. Broiler meat exports are projected to rise by 3 percent, while turkey meat exports are forecast to be virtually unchanged from the previous year.
Overall, U.S. poultry production is expected to slow its rate of growth in 2001, increasing by 2 percent. This slower growth rate is a result of poor producer returns (as large supplies of other meat and slower export growth pressure prices downward) and decreased hatchery supply flocks.
U.S. egg production is up 1 percent from 2000, at 85.0 billion pieces. Egg exports are down 1 percent at 2.0 billion pieces from the previous year because of increased competition in the Hong Kong market and lower Japanese egg imports.
Brazils poultry exports for 2001 are projected at 1.1 million tons, up 16 percent from 2000. The leading markets for Brazilian exports in total volume of sales include Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, and Japan. Brazilian exports of broiler and turkey meat to the EU are anticipated to grow in 2001 due to a slightly higher demand resulting from the effects of BSE.
Thailands exports of poultry meat in 2001 are projected to reach 343,000 tons, up 6 percent from 2000. Exports have been propelled upward due to a combination of larger domestic supplies (Thai breeding facilities have expanded) and increased domestic and international demand.
The EUs poultry meat exports for 2001 are projected at 821,000 tons, down 1 percent from last year. The year-to-year decline in exports is partly explained by a projected increase in demand within the EU. With a 3-percent increase forecast for consumption, spurred by the effects of BSE, exportable surpluses are expected to decline despite an increase in production and imports.
Total 2001 imports of poultry meat for selected countries are projected to be 5.5 million tons, up 6 percent from the previous year. The increase is forecast to be largely driven by the combined volume of imports from the major markets of Russia, China, and Hong Kong; their economies are projected to strengthen in 2001. Increases in imports are also forecast for Mexico, Canada, and the EU.
Russias imports of poultry meat for 2001 are forecast at 1.0 million tons, up 5 percent from 2000. Increased production of poultry meat in Russia, projected to increase by 3 percent to 680,000 tons, is expected to partially offset domestic demand and slow import growth for 2001.
Hong Kongs poultry meat imports for 2001 are projected at 1.1 million tons, up 11 percent from last year. Hong Kongs imports are projected to increase in 2001 because of increased demand in China for poultry meat. Hong Kong transships the majority of its poultry imports to China.
Mexicos poultry meat imports for 2001 are forecast at 312,000 tons, up 10 percent from 2000. This surge in imports from 2000 is primarily driven by a projected growth of 10 percent in turkey consumption, and a 5- percent increase in broiler consumption. As the Mexican economy is projected to continue expanding, demand for poultry by processors is also expected to increase. Poultry is a major component of processed meat in Mexico.
Japans imports of poultry meat for 2001 are forecast at 575,000 tons, unchanged from 2000. Japanese consumption of poultry meat is projected to only increase marginally from the previous year. With production forecast to decline slightly, competitively-priced poultry meats from Brazil and China are expected to make-up a larger percentage of the market share of Japanese poultry meat imports.