Status of U.S. Meat and Product Exports as of 2000

U.S. export shipments of meats, including variety meats, from January through July 2000 are up 21 percent over the same period last year, with total value rising by 25 percent. Excluding shipments to Russia, this time period yielded a 6-percent increase in volume and a 16-percent increase in value.

Trade statistics published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census are recognized as the official U.S. government trade numbers. Published U.S. Census data for January and February 2000 show a significant volume of beef, pork, and poultry exports to Russia, which suggests that some of the food aid shipments from 1999 may have been placed in the first 2 months of 2000. Adjustments have been made to the 1999 trade data to account for the meat food aid that was shipped in 1999. However, adjustments have not yet been made to 2000 trade data, leading to an over-counting of some exports. USDA and the Bureau of the Census continue to work together to revise the official trade data to accurately reflect when the food aid shipments occurred.

The Market Highlights of 2000 include:

• U.S. red meat, poultry meat, and variety meat exports through the first 7 months of 2000 were 21 percent more than a year ago. Excluding shipments to Russia, these exports showed a 6 percent increase. Pork, beef, and poultry meat each showed significant increases on a volume basis over the same period in 1999, with beef and poultry meat rising by 19 percent and pork up 32 percent. Excluding shipments to Russia, exports of beef rose 10 percent and exports of pork rose 11 percent. Exports of poultry meat rose 12 percent, excluding Russia and the Baltic states of Latvia and Estonia.

• U.S. beef exports are expected to reach a record level of 1.15 million tons (carcass weight equivalent (cwe)) in 2000. Increased exports to Japan, Mexico, Korea, and Canada are expected to contribute to the growth. Although exports to Mexico started the year 2000 strong, the finalization of antidumping duties in May slowed the pace.

• U.S. pork exports are forecast to reach 569,000 tons (cwe) in 2000. Japan is accounting for about 50 percent of U.S. pork exports and Mexico for 20 percent during this year.

• U.S. exports of total poultry meat are up 19 percent in volume terms and 14 percent in value terms so far in 2000. Excluding shipments to Russia and the Baltic states of Latvia and Estonia, exports increased 12 percent and 8 percent, respectively, on volume and value bases. Asian countries, particularly Korea, have increased purchases, and shipments are also up to the NAFTA countries. Exports for the year are expected to be up 5 percent from last year at 2.72 million tons. Broiler exports made a strong comeback in 2000 as commercial purchases by both Russia and the Baltic states and China and Hong Kong surged. Exports to those areas were up 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively, over the same period last year.

• Through the first 7 months of 2000, U.S. variety meat exports were up a strong 24 percent (20 percent excluding shipments to Russia) over the same period in 1999. The increase to 335,000 tons was led by rising exports to Japan, Russia, and Korea.

• U.S. tallow and grease exports through July 2000 totaled 534,000 tons, down 25 percent over the same period in 1999. Increases to Turkey and China could not offset declines in export volumes to Mexico, Korea, Colombia, and Venezuela.

• U.S. bovine hide exports experienced a resurgence in the period between January and July of 2000, with export value rising 43 percent over the same time period in 1999. A decline to Mexico was more than offset by gains to Korea, China, and Japan.

OUTLOOK FOR 2001:

• Total red meat and poultry exports are forecast to rise approximately 1 percent in 2001. Beef is projected to experience a drop in shipments, whereas pork is forecast to experience an increase. Poultry exports are expected to rise slightly.

• In 2001, U.S. beef exports are expected to decline slightly, dropping 3 percent from estimated 2000 record volumes. U.S. beef production is forecast to decline, and U.S. exporters face additional competition from other suppliers.

• U.S. pork exports are forecast to rise 4 percent to a record 593,000 tons (cwe) in 2001, spurred by continued strong markets in Japan and Mexico.

• For 2001, U.S. poultry exports will continue to face strong competition in the marketplace from Brazilian product, although European and Thai poultry exports are expected to slow. But inexpensive feed grain prices and an efficient industry will help keep U.S. product priced competitively, and exports are forecast to climb another 1 percent to reach 2.74 million tons. While Russia’s import growth is forecast to slow, China and other countries in Asia are expected to increase their imports of poultry and poultry products.

Last modified: Friday, May 02, 2003