Status of U.S. Meat Product Exports in 1999

U.S. export shipments of meats from January through August 1999 are down 7 percent over the same period last year, with total value dropping by 8 percent. As expected, last year's devaluation of the Russian ruble had a strong negative impact on U.S. meat exports, as did European Union export subsidies. Strong demand in Mexico and economic recovery in Asia, however, have acted to cushion U.S. exports from these negative effects.

Food aid to Russia, to be delivered during the latter half of 1999, is expected to help reverse the significant year-to-date decreases in U.S. exports of red meat and poultry by the end of the year. In addition, economic recovery in Asia, especially in Korea and Taiwan, and a nascent Japanese recovery should continue to translate into higher U.S. exports of red meat and poultry to the Asian region for the remainder of 1999 and into 2000. Strong Mexican demand for U.S. pork and beef is also expected to contribute to this upswing.

The Market Highlights of 1999 include:

• U.S. red meat and poultry meat exports through the first eight months of 1999 were more than 2.6 million tons, 7 percent lower than a year ago. Pork and poultry volumes showed declines, while beef exports experienced a significant increase.
• U.S. beef exports are expected to rise about 9 percent this year, compared with a lackluster 2 percent in 1998. The rise reflects strong markets in Mexico, Korea, and Taiwan; reduced competition from Australia and New Zealand; and food aid to Russia. Export growth to Mexico has been strong this year, but below the rapid growth of last year. Exports to Mexico for the rest of 1999 may be slightly moderated by antidumping tariffs. These tariffs vary by company and type of product. While the demand for beef has declined in the Japanese home consumption market, the lucrative hotel-restaurant market has grown slightly. Japan's stagnant economy is resulting in consumers purchasing fewer expensive beef cuts, which gives Australia a boost in the market.
• U.S. pork exports are forecast to increase 3 percent to 572,000 tons in 1999, boosted by pork food aid to Russia in the last half of the year and strong exports to Japan. Through August, U.S. pork exports are 6 percent behind last year's pace at 254,000 tons (PWE), primarily due to the collapse of commercial sales to Russia and the delay in food aid shipments. Though U.S. pork exports slowed considerably to Russia, Canada, and Hong Kong, exports to other major markets surged. Excluding Russia, U.S. pork exports are 9 percent ahead of last year's pace. U.S. pork exports to Korea and Taiwan through August have already surpassed last year's total export volume, while exports to Japan, our largest export market, increased nearly 6 percent.
• U.S. poultry meat exports continue to suffer from the near total collapse of the Russian commercial import market. Following the August 1998 devaluation of the ruble, exports to Russia during the first eight months of 1999 were more than 80 percent below the value level for the same period in 1998. Commercial imports of U.S. poultry meat have also been faced with severe competition from highly subsidized exports of pork from the European Union which brought pork into Russia at prices below those of leg quarters. However, total U.S. exports of poultry meat are only trailing last year’s volumes by 12 percent, mainly due to a resurgence in the Asian markets of Hong Kong, China, and Korea, and stronger exports to the Baltic countries.
• Through the first eight months of 1999, U.S. variety meat exports were nearly unchanged over the same period last year, at 307,000 tons. The value of U.S. variety meat exports totaled $425 million. Increased exports to Japan were offset by decreased exports to the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom.
• U.S. tallow and grease exports through August 1999 totaled 788,000 tons, 5 percent lower than the same period last year. Gains in U.S. tallow and grease exports to Korea, Colombia, and Guatemala were offset by lackluster trade to Mexico, Turkey, and Argentina. Tallow and grease prices fell to nine-year lows and caused the value of U.S. exports to decrease 24 percent to $285 million.

The Asian financial crisis continued to plague U.S. hides exporters by slashing total export revenues 10 percent to $610 million during the January-August 1999 period compared to the same period in 1998. However, exports to Korea continue to show strong growth. Since Korea accounts for over one-third of total U.S. hide exports, this growth helped push hide prices up 30 percent in early October, to more than $70/cwt, compared to $50/cwt in mid-February. Strengthening U.S. domestic demand, lower slaughter rates, and increased Korean imports of U.S. cattle hides should continue to increase hide prices to even more profitable levels during 2000.

OUTLOOK FOR 2000:

• Total red meat and poultry exports are forecast to decline slightly by one percent to just more than 4 million tons in 2000. Beef and pork are projected to experience drops in shipments, whereas poultry exports should rise.
• In 2000, U.S. beef exports are expected to fall about 4 percent to 1.025 million tons, reflecting higher U.S. beef prices as supplies tighten.
• U.S. pork exports are forecast to decline 5 percent to 544,000 tons in 2000 as commercial sales to Russia are not expected to return to pre-devaluation levels.
• U.S. poultry meat exports for 2000 are forecast to increase by close to 2 percent, mainly due to improved demand in the Asian economies. Exports to Russia and the Baltics are forecast to remain steady, but an improvement in the economic situation there could lead to a dramatic increase in demand. U.S. egg exports are forecast to increase by 5 percent in 2000 as increased production and low prices make U.S. product more competitive.

Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat and Lotus 123 formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader.

PDF Formatted Files:

Tables 1 and 2. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Beef, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 3 and 4. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Pork, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 5 and 6. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Variety Meats, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 7 and 8. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Poultry Meat, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 9 and 10. Value of U.S. Exports of Tallow and Grease, by Country, 1993-99
Table 11. Value of U.S. Exports of Bovine Hides & Skins, by Country, 1993-99

Download Lotus version 4 format:

Tables 1 and 2. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Beef, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 3 and 4. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Pork, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 5 and 6. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Variety Meats, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 7 and 8. Value and Volume of U.S. Exports of Poultry Meat, by Country, 1993-99
Tables 9 and 10. Value of U.S. Exports of Tallow and Grease, by Country, 1993-99
Table 11. Value of U.S. Exports of Bovine Hides & Skins, by Country, 1993-99

Last modified: Friday, May 02, 2003