China PS&D Includes Revised Estimates for 1996-99
In October 1998, China's State Statistical Bureau (SSB) released livestock estimates for 1997 and revisions for 1996. China's PS&D for 1996-99 reflects the changes in the SSB official data.
(The following information was provided by Lawrence Fuell, Senior Agricultural Attache, Beijing, China)
The Government of China has revised the official data on livestock inventory, slaughter, and meat production since FAS/Beijing issued the China Livestock Annual report in July 1998. In October 1998, the government released the 1998 volume of the official Statistical Yearbook in which it published revised data for animal husbandry and meat production. The specific data revisions included the number of animals in inventory at the end of 1996 and meat production for 1996. Estimates for 1997 data reflected the adjustments that were made for 1996.
The official estimates for cattle, swine, and sheep and goat inventories at the end of 1996 were reduced 21, 21, and 22 percent, respectively. Similarly, the official estimates for meat production in 1996 were reduced 28, 22, and 25 percent, respectively, for beef, pork, and mutton. As large as these changes are, they may not be the last to be announced. According to Chinese officials, further refinements, including further downward adjustment of these numbers, are possible; although it is unknown when revisions will be forthcoming.
The impetus for these changes was a national census of agriculture that was conducted in the beginning of 1997. The results of the census have not been fully released as officials wrestle with their economic and political implications. Thus, the 1998 Statistical Yearbook, which carried the first revised numbers for 1996, did not contain a historical series going back to 1978, as did all previous editions. Instead, data were provided for only 1996 and 1997, and the data provided a national total only, with no breakdown by province. Thus, it is not possible to determine in which province(s) the reductions occurred.
The new data series remains incomplete. Data on female stock are absent, and data on the number of animals slaughtered are provided for hogs but not for cattle or sheep. Data on hides, tallow and grease, and other animal by-products remain unavailable.
The data presented in the China PS&D are largely extrapolated from the few statistics on animal inventory, meat production and, in the case of hogs, the number of animals slaughtered, plus assumptions about the breeding characteristics of animals in China. Further explanation of how animal production, slaughter rates, product yields, and ending stocks were calculated are available in the China Livestock Semi-Annual Report (CH9006) that is available on the Foreign Agricultural Service's internet site at http://www.fas.usda.gov.
Husbandry Inventory and Meat Production
Comparison of Revised Historical Data, 1996-1997
(1,000 Head/1,000 MT)
|Old Series 1/||New Series 2/||Change in Series|
|Ending Stock||Meat Production||Ending Stock||Meat Production||Ending Stock||Meat Production|
|Sheep and Goats/Mutton|
|Sources: 1/ Statistical Yearbook, 1997; 2/ Statistical Yearbook,1998|