NOTE TO READERS
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of what is happening among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview of the world situation. In addition, an explanation of significant changes in production, supply, and demand (PSD) is provided for major meat importing and exporting countries.
Assumptions and Data Modifications
Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. The delay in the implementation of the U.S. minimal-risk rule to allow imports of Canadian cattle is assumed to be temporary. Forecasts of 2004 and 2005 poultry trade reflect policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks of avian influenza. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.U.S. and Canadian trade forecasts do not reflect the April 6th determination by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) of non-injury from imports of hogs from Canada.
The PSD data series for the European Union (EU) was modified in November 2004 to account for 10 new members. The European Union-15 (EU-15) data series was discontinued. All data and references in the text that refer to the "European Union" or "EU" imply all 25 member states (EU-25) unless it is specified as "EU-15" and "New Member States" (NMS). For additional details, please refer toNotes on European Union Data (http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/circular/2004/04-10LP/EUDataNotes.html) and European Union Consolidated PSD Tables (http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/circular/2004/04-10LP/EUDatatables.pdf) from the October 2004 edition of Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade.
All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.
Only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means world totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically. Nevertheless, by capturing the PSDs for all major meat importers and exporters, it is possible to forecast world trends, which are reflected in the text.
The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached throughhttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
In addition, please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry (DLP) website at:http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html for additional data and analysis, such as International Agricultural Trade Reports, Trade at a Glance and Country Pages. These reports are posted regularly on the homepage covering analysis on current issues and topics, new trade data, and market competition.