TextTable

May 2006 Edition:

USDA Initial 2006/07 Forecast: Consumption Growth Outpaces Production and Stocks Decline

Bar chart showing cotton production, ending stocks, and consumption for marketing years 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 (predicted) in in thousands of 480-pound bales for the United States, China and rest of the world.

The initial USDA cotton forecast for the 2006/07 marketing year shows world consumption growth out pacing production gains, resulting in a 5.0 million bale (9.5 percent) decline in world stocks.

World production is forecast to increase marginally to 115 million bales. The U.S. crop is forecast to decline by 3.2 million bales (13.4 percent) as both harvested area and yield fall from levels seen with the record 2005/06 crop. The U.S. decline is offset by larger crops in China and the rest of the world. The crop in China is forecast to increase by 1.8 million bales (6.9 percent) primarily due to increased area.

World trade is expected to remain stable as a larger crop and a slower consumption growth rate stabilizes China’s import demand. China’s imports for 2006/07 are forecast at 20.0 million bales, up only 5 percent. China’s near tripling of imports in 2005/06 drove a 32-percent increase in world trade. For 2006/07 tighter stocks in the U.S. and increased competition from countries such as India result in U.S. exports forecast to decline 2.9 percent from the record 17.0 million bales in 2005/06 to 16.5 million. The forecast increase in China’s imports of 1.0 million bales offsets declining import demand in the rest of the world.

World consumption in 2006/07 is expected to increase by just over 4 percent to 122 million bales. China’s consumption is forecast to increase by 9.7 percent to 51.0 million bales. Once again, China will account for over 90 percent of the world growth in consumption. Since 1997/98 China has accounted for 92 percent of world consumption growth. Overall China will account for 46 percent of world imports, 42 percent of world consumption and 24 percent of world production. Recent changes in Chinese data on yarn production statistics have complicated estimating Chinese mill use of cotton. However, both recent yarn data and other textile data indicate that the rate of growth in 2006/07 will continue strong, but be lower than in the previous year.

Stocks in China are forecast to tighten even further and ending stocks are expected to be only 11.5 million bales, down 11.7 percent. Estimating stock levels in China remains difficult given the lack of clear historical data and the continued existence of state reserves. However, China’s stocks relative to use continue to fall due in part to improvements in supply chain efficiency and increased reliance on consignment purchases of imported cotton.

Trade Data	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	Change 05/06– 06/07	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	Change 05/06– 06/07	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	Change 05/06– 06/07
World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook Marketing Years 2004/05, 2005/06, and 2006/07 (1,000 480-Lb. Bales)
Trade Data	World				U.S.				China
Beginning Stocks	43,097	54,287	52,415	-3.40%	3,506	5,538	6,500	17.40%	14,958	13,063	13,038	-0.20%
Production	120,497	113,407	115,000	1.40%	23,251	23,890	20,700	-13.40%	29,000	26,200	28,000	6.90%
Imports	33,294	44,086	44,000	-0.20%	29	30	30	0.00%	6,385	19,000	20,000	5.30%
Use	108,912	117,204	122,000	4.10%	6,693	6,000	5,800	-3.30%	38,500	46,500	51,000	9.70%
Loss	-1,081	-1,334	-1,500	12.40%	146	-42	30	-171.40%	-1,250	-1,300	-1,500	15.40%
Exports	34,770	43,495	43,500	0.00%	14,409	17,000	16,500	-2.90%	30	25	25	0.00%
Ending Stocks	54,287	52,415	47,420	-9.50%	5,538	6,500	4,900	-24.6	13,063	13,038	11,513	-11.70%
Stocks-to-Use	49.8%	44.7%	38.9%		26.2%	28.3%	22.0%		33.9%	28.0%	22.6%

Download Cotton Supply and Demand Database {.csv}

Download Cotton Circular {.pdf}

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® {.pdf}.

Tables

Summary of Changes (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 2000/2001-2005/2006 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 2000/2001-2005/2006 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}

Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2004/2005-2005/2006 {.pdf}

Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2005/2006 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2005/2006 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}

Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}

Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.

Last modified: Sunday, March 17, 2013