TextTable

October 2005 Edition:

U.S. Market Share Likely Declines in 2005/06

China’s imports are expected to reach 15.5 million bales in 2005/06, 9.1 million bales above 2004/05. However, U.S. exports are forecast to increase by only 1.6 million bales, and U.S. ending stocks are expected to increase 750,000 bales. The United States will face pressure in China from Brazilian, African, Central Asian, and Subcontinent producers who carry in large stocks from 2004/05. These countries have increased exports to China in recent years and their large exportable supplies will position them well in 2005/06. Since 1999/00, the U.S. share of China’s imports has ranged from 60 percent (2002/03) to 50 percent (2004/05).

U.S. exports to China and overall foreign competition will be determining factors of U.S. export distribution elsewhere in 2005/06. Foreign exports are projected to increase 18 percent in 2005/06, compared to 11 percent for the United States. A large exportable supply in Australia will constrain U.S. opportunities in Indonesia, Japan, Thailand, and Korea; similar circumstances are expected of Greece in Turkey. As Brazil’s exports increase, its presence in U.S. markets should follow. Since 2001/02, Brazil’s shares in Japan and Korea have increased from zero to 19 percent and zero to 17 percent, respectively. In Mexico, where U.S. cotton faces little competition, export opportunities are bearish. Unprecedented beginning stock levels, increasing production, and decreasing consumption will lower import demand by a third to 1.2 million bales.

Combined imports by Mexico, Turkey, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, and Japan are expected to decline by 1.4 million bales or 11 percent and together accounted for 45 percent of U.S. 2004/05 exports outside China. Assuming current estimates and U.S. market share in the world outside China holds constant, U.S. share of China would fall to 37 percent or 2.0 million bales short of retaining its historical 50-60 percent market share. While the U.S. share of non-Chinese import demand is likely to fall due to greater foreign competition, this analysis indicates that it may be difficult to sustain a 50-percent U.S. market share of China’s imports.

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook
Marketing Years 2003/04, 2004/2005, and 2005/06
1,000 480-Lb. Bales
	World				U.S.
	2003/04	2004/2005	2005/2006	% Change 04/05 - 05/06	2003/04	2004/2005	2005/2006	% Change 04/05 - 05/06
Production	95,062	120,429	111,439	-7.5	18,255	23,251	22,717	-2.3
Imports	34,015	33,018	40,728	23.4	45	30	40	33.3
Use	98,198	108,746	112,926	3.8	6,221	6,264	5,800	-7.4
Exports	33,155	34,957	40,220	15.1	13,758	14,409	16,000	11.0
Ending Stocks	40,615	50,984	50,980	0.0	3,506	5,650	6,400	13.3

Download Cotton Supply and Demand Database {.csv}

Download Cotton Circular {.pdf}

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® {.pdf}.

Tables

Summary of Changes (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}

Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2003/2004-2004/2005 {.pdf}

Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2003/2004 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2003/2004 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}

Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}

Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005