May 2005

May 2005 Edition:

World 2005/06 Imports Rise 16 Percent on China Demand

The initial forecast for the world 2005/06 marketing year shows production down, and consumption and trade up from 2004/05. As a result, 2005/06 ending stocks are forecast down 3.9 million bales.

World trade is expected to grow dramatically. World imports are forecast to reach 39.3 million bales, up 16.3 percent from 33.8 million in 2004/05. Falling production and rising consumption in China is expected to widen the supply gap to 15.5 million bales. Imports of 15.0 million bales will be needed to cover the gap and prevent stocks from tightening further. Outside of China, import demand will decline due to both limited consumption growth and tightening global stocks. World exports are forecast to reach 39.0 million bales, up 16.6 percent in 2004/05. Exports from nearly all major exporters will increase to fill China’s import needs; U.S. exports are forecast at a record 14.5 million bales.

World production is forecast to decline 11 percent to 107 million bales with both area and yields down from the record levels in many countries in 2004/05. Production in the United States is forecast down 16 percent to 19.5 million bales, and down 12 percent in China to 25.5 million bales. Production in the rest of the world is forecast down 7.6 percent.

World consumption in 2005/06 is expected to increase by 3.3 percent (down from 9 percent growth in 2004/05) to another record of 111.5 million bales. Consumption in the U.S. will continue to decline to 5.8 million bales, down 8 percent. Consumption in China will continue to grow faster than the world average to 41.0 million bales, up 6.5 percent, and will represent 37 percent of total world consumption. Consumption in the rest of the world is expected to increase slightly (1.6 percent) to 64.7 million bales.

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook
Marketing Years 2003/04, 2004/2005, and 2005/06
1,000 480-Lb. Bales
	World				US
	2003/04	2004/2005	2005/2006	% Change 04/05 - 05/06	2003/04	2004/2005	2005/2006	% Change 04/05 - 05/06
Production	95,117	119,318	107,000	-10.3	18,255	23,251	19,500	-16.1
Imports	33,963	33,790	39,300	16.3	45	30	40	33.3
Use	98,600	107,979	111,500	3.3	6,489	6,300	5,800	-7.9
Exports	33,060	33,734	39,000	15.6	13,759	13,400	14,500	8.2
Ending Stocks	37,336	49,071	45,171	-8.0	3,506	7,100	6,300	-11.3

Download Cotton Supply and Demand Database {.csv}

Download Cotton Circular {.pdf}

Download Cotton Circular and Special Report {.pdf}

Special Report: Explanation of Revisions to the China Cotton Balance Sheet, ICEC {.pdf},

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® {.pdf}.

Tables

Summary of Changes (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}

Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2003/2004-2004/2005 {.pdf}

Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2003/2004 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2003/2004 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}

Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}

Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.

Last modified: Sunday, March 17, 2013