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March 2005 Edition:

2004/05 U.S. Export Sales Continue Strong

Season-to-date export sales are about 4 percent below last year at this time. This is in line with this season’s export forecast of 13.2 million 480 lb. bales, down 4.3 percent from last season’s total of 13.8 million.

Through the end of February, U.S. total sales stood at 11.0 million running bales with accumulated exports of 6.05 million running bales. Both exports and sales are down 400,000 bales from last year at this time. Total sales to China are down 2.66 million bales compared to last year while total sales to all other markets are up 2.29 million bales. Leading the increase in non-China sales are Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. Sales to non-China markets are expected to slow slightly in the remainder of the year, relative to last year’s pace. 

The U.S. share of China’s imports will likely be below last year’s 57.5 percent due to larger foreign supplies of cotton this season and the late timing of China’s imports relative to last year. The U.S. share of China’s imports in the first half of 2004/05 was 41 percent compared to 53 percent during the same period last year.  Uzbekistan, Australia, Paraguay, and Pakistan, with larger exportable supplies in 2004/05, have increased their market shares in China.

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook
Marketing Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/2005
1,000 480-Lb. Bales
  World US
  2002/03 2003/04 2004/2005 % Change 
03/04 - 04/05
2002/03 2003/04 2004/2005 % Change 
03/04 - 04/05
Production 88,310 95,075 117,711 23.81% 17,209 18,255 23,006 26.03%
Imports 30,146 33,906 33,792 -0.34% 67 45 40 -11.11%
Use 98,452 98,377 106,163 7.91% 7,273 6,489 6,300 -2.91%
Exports 30,449 33,033 33,583 1.67% 11,900 13,759 13,200 -4.06%
Ending Stocks 38,137 35,772 47,554 32.94% 5,385 3,506 7,100 102.51%

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Last modified: Sunday, March 17, 2013