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January 2005 Edition:

Cotton Supply Even Larger in 2004/05

With the 1.5 million-bale increase in Pakistan’s production estimate this month, the USDA’s world cotton production estimate in 2004/05 is 115.6 million bales, up 22.1 percent from last year. Yields considerably above historical trends in key producing countries resulted in production over 12.4 percent higher than preliminary early season estimates from June 2004.

Lower cotton prices resulting from these large supplies have helped expand world cotton consumption. World consumption for 2004/05 is forecast at 104.4 million bales, up 6.2 percent from 2003/04. This forecast is up 4.6 percent from USDA’s June forecast, which includes increases from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey. Favorable economic growth continues to support increased global consumption. While the forecast for U.S. consumption is higher than initial forecast, a decline is expected compared to last year in the United States.

While consumption has increased, high production in consuming countries has constrained import demand and thus limited trade. The forecast for world trade remains down slightly, 2.1 percent, from 2003/04 and has increased only marginally since the original forecast in June of 2004.

Increased production forecasts in 2004/05 have raised stocks 32.3 percent above 2003/04. Stocks are forecast to be disproportionately large in the United States, up 119.6 percent. The world stocks-to-consumption ratio is 45.1 percent in January; the original forecast was 35.4 percent in June of 2004

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook
Marketing Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/2005
1,000 480-Lb. Bales
	World				US
	2002/03	2003/04	2004/2005	% Change 2003/04 -2004/05	2002/03	2003/04	2004/2005	% Change 2003/04 -2004/05
Production	88,309	94,779	115,641	22.1%	17,209	18,255	23,006	26.0%
Imports	30,183	33,917	32,905	-3.0%	67	45	40	-11.1%
Use	98,560	98,376	104,431	6.2%	7,273	6,489	6,200	-4.5%
Exports	30,377	32,982	32,603	-1.1%	11,900	13,759	12,700	-7.7%
Ending Stocks	38,269	35,606	47,118	32.3%	5,385	3,506	7,700	119.6%

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf).

Tables

Summary of Changes (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}

Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2003/2004-2004/2005 {.pdf}

Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2003/2004 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2003/2004 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}

Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}

Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Most statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat and Lotus version 3 format. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook

Marketing Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/2005