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World
and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/2005 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
%
Change 04/05-03/04 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
%
Change 04/05-03/04 |
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Production |
88,276 |
94,027 |
106,589 |
13.4% |
17,209 |
18,255 |
20,183 |
10.6% |
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Imports |
30,222 |
34,034 |
31,600 |
-7.2% |
67 |
50 |
40 |
-20.0% |
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Use |
98,601 |
98,664 |
100,662 |
2.0% |
7,273 |
6,300 |
5,900 |
-6.3% |
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Exports |
30,352 |
32,977 |
31,303 |
-5.1% |
11,900 |
13,800 |
12,000 |
-13.0% |
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Ending
Stocks |
36,612 |
33,012 |
39,220 |
18.8% |
5,385 |
3,600 |
5,900 |
63.9% |
No changes are made to the U.S. estimates for 2003/04.
U.S. production in 2004/05 is raised 2.2 million bales this month to 20.2 million bales, nearly a record. This is primarily due to better than average weather conditions reducing abandoned acres. Consumption is increased 100,000 bales as recent textile imports are lower than previously expected. Exports are raised 700,000 bales due to higher U.S. production and slightly higher world demand. Ending stocks are expected to increase to 5.9 million bales, the highest in three years and 30 percent higher than last month’s estimate.
2001/02 and 2002/03
Based on updated information on Vietnam, imports and use are both reduced by 40,000 bales. For 2002/03, Vietnam’s imports are reduced 80,000 bales, while use is reduced 45,000 bales.
2003/04
World production is raised 134,000 bales led by a 250,000-bale production increase in India, which is partially offset by a 100,000-bale decrease in Uzbekistan. Use is increased 275,000 bales led mostly by a 200,000-bale increase in China and 150,000 bale increase in India. Imports are increased 285,000 bales with Mexico and Pakistan accounting for most of the increase.
2004/05
World production is increased this month by 1.9 million bales to 106.6 million bales. A 2.2 million bale increase in the U.S. and a 250 thousand-bale increase in India are partially offset by decreases in Australia (100,000 bales), and Brazil (500,000) bales. World consumption is increased 500,000 bales, led primarily by China (300,000 bales), India (150,000 bales), and the United States (100,000). World imports and exports are increased 620,000 bales and 650,000 bales, respectively. Imports are primarily increased in China (250,000 bales) and Pakistan (225,000). The increase in exports are primarily led by increases in the U.S. (700,000 bales) and Brazil (300,000) which is partially offset by decreases in Australia (300,000 bales) and other small changes. Ending stocks are increased 1.4 million bales from last month’s estimate reflecting higher production estimates.
Highlights of this month:
-Australia: Production is reduced by 100,000 due to lower expected yields. Additionally, exports are reduced 300,000 bales because of expected changes in export timing during the local marketing year.
-Brazil: Exports are increased 300,000 bales because of expected changes in export timing during the local marketing year. Production is reduced 500,000 bales as world prices have fallen substancially below those prevaling at planting time last year.
-China: Consumption is increased 300,000 bales and imports are increased 250,000 bales. This is the result of increases in yarn production, which were higher than anticipated previously.
-India: Production is increased 250,000 bales due to a better than expected monsoon season. Consumption is increased 150,000 bales reflecting increased cotton usage in yarn production and recent strength in textile output.
-Pakistan: Imports are increased 225,000 bales reflecting recent higher imports and greater available world supplies.
The former A-Index, presently called the A (NE), is a principle measure of international cotton prices. It is calculated as an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In July, the index averaged 57.02 cents per pound, down 7.53 cents from June's average. In New York, the nearby October futures contract settlement price decreased 7.37 cents between the end of June and the end of July, closing at 43.83 cents per pound on July 30.
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U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks |
June |
May |
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Seasonally
adjusted daily rate of consumption |
23,776 bales |
23,834 bales |
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Total
bales consumed per month |
605,656
bales |
491,573
bales |
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Seasonally
adjusted annualized consumption rate |
6.20 million
bales |
6.22 million
bales |
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Active
spindles |
2.17 million |
2.18 million |
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%
Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton |
57 percent |
56 percent |
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Cotton’s
share of total fibers consumed on spindle system |
80.6 percent |
80.6 percent |
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Cotton
Stocks at mills |
332,713
bales |
357,752
bales |
| Cotton Stocks in public storage | 4.38 million bales | 5.84 million bales |
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Textile Mill Report. Mill buyers purchased a moderate volume of 2004-crop cotton for January through December 2005. Some mill buyers indicated that due to quality concerns they were restricting purchases of Georgia cotton. Mill buyers purchased a light volume of 2004-crop cotton for November/December 2004 delivery. Mill inquiries were steady for 2003-crop cotton and were for September/October 2004 delivery. Most mills operated on a five to six day production schedule with some increases in activity noticed in denim mills.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $479.9 million or 1.5 million bales in May, relatively flat from $479.6 million or 1.4 million bales in April, according to Census data. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in May at 542,000 bales or $181.8 million, followed by Mexico (182,000 bales or $60.1 million) and Turkey (177,000 bales or $53.4 million). Exports to China and Turkey were down slightly from April; exports to Mexico were up nearly 75 percent.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS decreased to $575,000 (1,100 bales) in May from $2.8 million (5,600 bales) in April. Egypt accounted all U.S. cotton imports in May.
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