|
|
|
|
|
|
|
World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
||||||||
|
Marketing
Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/05 |
||||||||
|
1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
||||||||
|
|
World |
U.S. |
||||||
|
|
2002/0 |
2003/0 |
2004/0 |
% Change |
2002/03 |
2003/0 |
2004/0 |
% Change |
|
|
|
|
|
2003/04 - 2004/0 |
|
|
|
2003/04 - 2004/0 |
|
Production |
88,282 |
93,893 |
104,729 |
11.5% |
17,209 |
18,255 |
18,000 |
1.4% |
|
Imports |
30,302 |
33,749 |
30,975 |
-8.2% |
67 |
50 |
40 |
-20% |
|
Consumption |
98,646 |
98,389 |
100,162 |
1.8% |
7,273 |
6,300 |
5,800 |
-7.9% |
|
Exports |
30,352 |
32,953 |
30,653 |
-6.9% |
11,900 |
13,800 |
11,300 |
-16.7% |
|
Ending Stocks |
36,653 |
32,934 |
37,790 |
14.7% |
5,385 |
3,600 |
4,500 |
25 % |
The U.S. 2004/05 harvested area and production forecasts are raised from last month as favorable conditions to date indicate lower abandonment. Area is increased 121,000 hectares leading to a production increase of 400,000 bales. The U.S. cotton export forecast for MY 2004/05, however, is 200,000 bales lower. Higher production and lower export forecasts increase ending stocks by 600,000 bales.
Based on newly available data, the estimates for MY 2002/03 are revised to reflect lower area and trade, but slightly higher production and ending stocks. The world estimates for imports and exports are lowered 145,000 bales and 270,000 bales, respectively, mainly in Ukraine and Greece. For Ukraine, the data suggest 100,000 bales lower imports and 95,000 bales lower exports, compared to the June estimates. For Greece, the data suggest 150,000 bales lower exports that are expected to role over to ending stocks.
For MY 2003/04, world production is raised 428,000 bales, imports raised 160,000 bales, consumption lowered 221,000 bales, and stocks raised 908,000 bales more than the June forecasts. Since the June report, the major country developments for MY 2003/04 are as follows:
-Brazil: The production forecast has been increased 150,000 bales based on the latest government estimates. The export forecast has been lowered 50,000 bales due to late harvesting. The additional production and lower exports increase ending stocks by 200,000 bales.
-India: New data for India suggest an increase of 100,000 bales for production. Additional production is expected to increase ending stocks by the same amount.
-Australia: New data for Australia suggest an increase of 100,000 bales for production forecast. The export forecast is also raised 100,000 bales due to the greater availability of cotton.
-Mexico: New data for Mexico suggest an additional 250,000 bales in imports, which coupled with 47,000 bales of higher production, raise the ending stocks for Mexico by 308,000 bales.
-Turkey: New data for Turkey suggest a drop of 200,000 bales in their cotton consumption, which raises their ending stocks by the same amount.
For MY 2004/05, forecasts are revised to increase area, production, use, and ending stocks, but lower trade. Area has been raised 416,000 hectares, mainly due to increases in area for India (+200,000 hectares), the United States (+121,000 hectares), and China (+100,000 hectares). The production forecast was raised 1,845,000 bales, mainly due to higher production forecasts for China (+1,000,000 bales), India (+500,000 bales), the United States (+400,000 bales), and Uzbekistan (+100,000 bales), which was partially offset by lower production for Australia (-100,000 bales) and Greece (-100,000 bales). Higher beginning stocks and production in MY 2004/05 should lead to higher world supply. The forecast for ending stocks is increased by 2,443,000 bales which in turn is boosting consumption slightly and reducing world trade.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In June, the index averaged 65.09 cents per pound, down 4.95 cents from May's average. In New York, the nearby July futures contract settlement price decreased 12.94 cents between the end of May and the end of June, closing at 48.25 cents per pound on June 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| May | April | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 23,874 | 30,895 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 492,402 bales | 632,502 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.23 million bales | 8.06 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.17 million | 2.19 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 57% | 56% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.07% | 84.38% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 364,310 bales | 333,760 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 5.83 million bales | 7.56 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Mill buyers purchased a light volume of 2003-crop cotton and older certificated stock for prompt through September 2004 delivery. Reports indicated that some mills needed to purchase additional cotton for July, August, and early September. Mill inquiries for 2004-crop cotton were steady. Mill buyers purchased a moderate volume of 2004-crop cotton for October through September 2005 delivery. Contracts specified Memphis/Eastern growths. Some mill buyers took advantage of lower NY futures prices to fix prices on some of the 2004-crop cotton that was recently booked. Most mills took two to four days off for the Fourth of July holiday, while a few mills took no additional time off.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $479.6 million or 1.4 million bales in April, down from $656.5 million or 1.9 million bales in March, according to Census data. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in April at 592,988 bales or $210.3 million, followed y Turkey at 183,858 bales or $61.1 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS increased to $2.78 million (5,563 bales) in April from $1.45 million (2,795 bales) in March. Egypt accounted for $2.76 million (5,507 bales) and India accounted for $10,000 (56 bales) in April.
Return to table of contents
|
|