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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/03, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2002/0 |
2003/0 |
2004/0 |
% Change |
2002/03 |
2003/0 |
2004/0 |
% Change |
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2003/04 - 2004/0 |
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2003/04 - 2004/0 |
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Production |
88,275 |
93,465 |
102,884 |
10.1% |
17,209 |
18,255 |
17,600 |
-3.6% |
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Imports |
30,447 |
33,589 |
31,615 |
-5.9% |
67 |
50 |
40 |
-20% |
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Consumption |
98,659 |
98,610 |
99,862 |
1.3% |
7,273 |
6,300 |
5,800 |
-7.9% |
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Exports |
30,622 |
32,995 |
30,283 |
-5.2% |
11,900 |
13,800 |
11,500 |
-16.7% |
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Ending Stocks |
36,594 |
32,026 |
35,347 |
10.4% |
5,385 |
3,600 |
3,900 |
8.3% |
Based on revised Census data, U.S. use is increased 4,000 bales in MY 2002/03. The change is offset in the "difference unaccounted," and ending stocks remain 5,385,000 bales.
Based on new production data for Kyrgyzstan, MY 2001/02 world production numbers were increased by 60,000 bales and world exports by 69,000 bales, thus reducing world ending stocks by 9,000 bales.
For MY 2002/03, world imports are increased 158,000 bales with a corresponding 59,000-bale world use increase due mostly to new estimates for Bangladesh. A 43,000-bale increase in world production led to a 35,000-bale increase in world exports led solely by new production data for Kyrgyzstan. World ending stocks are increased 102,000 bales from the May estimate.
For MY 2003/04 world use is increased 814,000 bales from the May estimate. This increase is mostly led by a 700,000 bale increase in China's consumption. China's stocks tighten as increased consumption is covered by stocks, thus reducing world stocks by 629,000 bales.
Since the May report, the major country developments for the 2003/04 crop year are as follows:
Brazil: The export forecast has been lowered 150,000 bales, thus increasing ending stocks. More cotton than previously expected from the late harvesting Mato Grosso area will be exported next marketing year.
Chad: New data indicate area down 125,000 hectares and production down 100,000 bales. Exports are also reduced 75,000 bales.
China: Continued strong mill use prompted a 700,000-bale increase in consumption that resulted in a corresponding 700,000-bale decline in ending stocks. A 100,000-bale decline in production was based on official data, and is offset by a 100,000-bale increase in imports.
India: Use is increased 200,000 bales due to better than expected mill consumption. Exports are increased 100,000 bales due to new trade data. Accordingly, stocks are reduced 300,000 bales.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In May, the index averaged 70.04 cents per pound, up 0.59 cents from April’s average. In New York, the nearby July future contract settlement price increased 1.69 cents between the end of April and the end of May, closing at 61.19 cents per pound on May 28.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| April | March | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 23,674 | 24,141 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 485,152 bales | 632,502 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.18 million bales | 6.3 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.2 million | 2.19 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 56.25% | 56.1% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 79.93% | 80.29% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 333,656 bales | 353,240 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 7.58 million bales | 9.26 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report: Mills purchased a light volume of 2003-crop cotton for July-September 2004 delivery. Yarn prices strengthened somewhat. Higher petroleum prices improved cotton’s price position relative to man-made fibers. Business was stronger. Some mills that were covered for the summer months were back in the market for raw cotton. Pricing for new crop cotton was reported at a similar basis as that received the past couple of years.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $656.5 million or 1.9 million bales in March, up from $480 million or 1.4 million bales in February, according to Census data. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in February at 896,849 bales or $314.6 million, followed by Turkey at 272,126 bales or $90.6 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS increased to $1.45 million (2,795 bales) in March from $944,000 (1,891 bales) in February. Egypt accounted for $1.43 million (2,707 bales), India accounted for $9,000 (47 bales), and Pakistan accounted for $7,000 (42 bales) in March.
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