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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/03, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2002/0 |
2003/0 |
2004/0 |
% Change |
2002/03 |
2003/0 |
2004/0 |
% Change |
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2003/04 - 2004/0 |
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2003/04 - 2004/0 |
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Production |
88,232 |
93,488 |
102,500 |
9.6% |
17,209 |
18,255 |
17,600 |
-3.6% |
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Imports |
30,289 |
33,523 |
30,800 |
-8.1% |
67 |
50 |
40 |
-20% |
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Consumption |
98,600 |
97,796 |
99,000 |
1.2% |
7,269 |
6,300 |
5,800 |
-7.9% |
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Exports |
30,587 |
33,032 |
30,500 |
-7.7% |
11,900 |
13,800 |
11,500 |
-16.7% |
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Ending Stocks |
36,492 |
32,655 |
36,455 |
11.6% |
5,385 |
3,600 |
3,900 |
8.3% |
No significant changes compared to April’s forecasts.
Based on new import data for India, MY 2001/02 world import
numbers were increased by 441,000 and world stocks by 406,000 bales. The new
data also led to lower world import and higher stock numbers for MY 2002/03.
For 2003/04, favorable conditions in India and Brazil led to a 712,000 bale
increase in the May world production forecast. At the same time, world use is
proving slightly lower than previously expected. Although use in 2003/04 is
still expected to significantly outstrip production, the May world stock
estimate is 1,047,000 bales higher than April.
The prospect for world trade in 2003/04 has deteriorated more than for use. The
2003/04 world import estimate is down 278,000 bales in May as compared to April.
Since the April report, the major country by country developments for the
2003/04 crop year are as follows:
Brazil: Favorable weather is continuing to improve prospects for the Brazilian
crop and the production estimate has been raised 250,000 bales. The export
forecast, however, has been lowered 300,000 bales due to the later harvesting
period for the Mato Grosso area. A combination of higher production and lower
export has caused the ending stocks forecast to be increased 625,000 bales.
India: The Indian harvest has proven significantly better than originally
expected, up 500,000 bales over the April estimate. However domestic consumption
has picked up only slightly such that nearly all the increase will go into
stocks. Factoring in a 2002/03 increase in ending stocks, the May forecast for
ending stocks is 704,000 bales higher than in April.
China: Trade data have prompted a 200,000-bale increase in both imports and
ending stocks.
Mexico: The consumption forecast has been lowered 100,000 bales and the import
forecast lowered 125,000 bales.
Pakistan: Trade data suggest that 2003/04 imports should be 150,000 bales lower
than was predicted in April. However mill use continues relatively strong.
Millers are apparently willing to let stocks drop in anticipation of a more
favorable market, and the forecast ending stocks have been dropped by the full
150,000 bales.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In April, the index averaged 69.37 cents per pound, down 3.08 cents from March’s average. In New York, the nearby July future contract settlement price decreased 2.60 cents between the end of March and the end of April, closing at 59.50 cents per pound on April 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| March | February | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 23,595 | 23,811 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 635,056 bales | 492,950 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.16 million bales | 6.22 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.22 million | 2.23 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 55.5% | 55.3% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.32% | 80.86% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 353,438 bales | 335,279 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 9.3 million bales | 11.7 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Mill buyers purchased a light volume of 2003-crop cotton
for prompt through August 2004 delivery. Reports indicated that most mills have
covered most of their expected raw cotton needs through September 2004. Mill
inquiries were steady for 2004-crop cotton. Most mills operated on a five to six
day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $480 million or 1.4 million bales in February, up
from $382 million or 1.11 million bales in January according to Census data.
China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in February at 707,186 bales or
$246.8 million, followed by Turkey at 134,140 bales or $44.9 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS decreased to $944,000 (1,891 bales) in February from $2
million (4,004 bales) in January. Egypt accounted for $711,000 (1,426 bales),
Australia accounted for $233,000 (465 bales) in January.
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