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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/04, 2002/04 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/04 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/04 |
2002/04 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/04 - 2003/04 |
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2002/04 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,565 |
88,275 |
92,776 |
5.1% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
18,224 |
5.9% |
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Imports |
29,377 |
30,446 |
33,801 |
11.0% |
21 |
67 |
50 |
-25.4% |
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Consumption |
94,552 |
98,620 |
97,880 |
-0.8% |
7,696 |
7,269 |
6,300 |
-13.3% |
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Exports |
28,937 |
30,559 |
33,344 |
9.1% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
13,800 |
16.0% |
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Ending Stocks |
47,002 |
36,294 |
31,608 |
-12.9% |
7,448 |
5,385 |
3,550 |
-34.1% |
The U.S. estimates for 2002/04 and preceding years were unchanged.
The forecasts for 2003/04 remained unchanged from March.
The world estimates for MY 2001/02 reflect higher production (+46,000 bales) and slightly lower area due to changes in Peru.
The world estimates for MY 2002/04 were changed to reflect higher use (+150,000 bales) and lower ending stocks (-73,000 bales). Brazil’s consumption was raised based on newly available trade data.
The 2003/04 world forecasts as compared to last month show lower area (-42,000 hectares), production, trade, and ending stocks. Production is down by 84,000 bales, mainly due to reductions for Benin (-90,000 bales), Argentina (-65,000 bales), Zambia (-55,000 bales), and Ivory Coast (-50,000 bales), which were partially offset by an increase for Pakistan (+150,000 bales). Exports are down (-97,000 bales) mainly due to a reduction in the forecast for Brazil (-350,000 bales), which was partially offset by increases for Turkey (+150,000 bales) and Pakistan (+100,000 bales). The forecast for cotton consumption remains unchanged from March. A reduction for Thailand (-75,000 bales) and some smaller countries offset an increase in India’s consumption (+100,000 bales).
Since the March report, the major changes for the world 2003/04 forecasts are as follows:
Brazil: The 2003/04 forecasts for Brazil were adjusted to reflect lower beginning stocks (-150,000 bales), lower exports (-350,000 bales), and higher ending stocks (+200,000 bales), imports (+50,000 bales), and consumption (+50,000 bales).
India: The 2003/04 forecast for mill use for India was revised upward (+100,000 bales) based on recent activities. With the forecasts for production and imports unchanged, the additional consumption is expected to reduce ending stocks by the same amount.
Turkey: The 2003/04 forecast for exports was revised upward (+150,000 bales), with ending stocks reduced by the same amount.
Pakistan: The 2003/04 forecasts were revised upward to reflect higher production (+150,000 bales), exports (+100,000 bales), and ending stocks (+50,000 bales).
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In March, the index averaged 72.23 cents per pound, down 1.68 cents from February’s average. In New York, the nearby March future contract settlement price decreased 10 cents between the end of February and the end of March, closing at 62.10 cents per pound on March 31.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| February | January | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 24,151 bales | 24,761 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 500,183 bales | 495,752 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.30 million bales | 6.46 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.21 million | 2.21 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 55.9% | 55.9% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 81.03% | 81.72% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 346,615 bales | 346,635 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 12.1 million bales | 13.6 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Mill buyers purchased a light volume of 2003-crop cotton for prompt through August 2004 delivery. Reports indicated that most mills have covered a large portion of their expected raw cotton needs through September 2004 and were only seeking fill-in deliveries as needed. Mill buyers took advantage of the lower NY futures prices to fix prices on a light to moderate volume of cotton. Most activity was in nearby months. Mill inquiries were steady for 2004 crop cotton.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $382 million or 1.11 million bales in January, down from $494 million or 1.4 million bales in December according to Census data. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in January at 512,787 bales or $181 million, followed by Mexico at 97,660 bales or $31.3 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS increased to $2 million (4,004 bales) in January from $1.6 million (3,703 bales) in December. Egypt accounted for $1.8 million (3,540 bales), Australia accounted for $232,000 (465 bales) in January.
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