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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/03, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/03 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/03 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,519 |
88,274 |
92,860 |
5.2% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
18,224 |
5.9% |
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Imports |
29,377 |
30,446 |
33,861 |
11.2% |
21 |
67 |
50 |
-25.4% |
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Consumption |
94,552 |
98,470 |
97,880 |
-0.6% |
7,696 |
7,269 |
6,300 |
-13.3% |
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Exports |
28,937 |
30,559 |
33,441 |
9.4% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
13,800 |
16.0% |
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Ending Stocks |
46,926 |
36,367 |
31,728 |
-12.8% |
7,448 |
5,385 |
3,550 |
-34.1% |
The U.S. estimates for 2002/03 and preceding years were unchanged.
Projections for 2003/04 were changed to reflect an additional 600,000 bales of exports and 100,000 bales of domestic mill use. The U.S. cotton export forecast is now at a record 13.8 million bales. With U.S. production unchanged, the additional exports and domestic mill use are expected to reduced projected ending stocks by 700,000 bales.
The world cotton use estimate for MY 2002/03 was revised upwards 400,000 bales to reflect higher mill use in China. This resulted in lower world ending stocks by the same amount.
The 2003/04 world forecasts as compared to last month show higher production, use, and trade, but lower area and stocks. Production is up by 210,000 bales, mainly due to increases for Brazil (200,000 bales), Iran (170,000 bales), and Australia (100,000 bales), which were partially offset by reductions for Sudan (125,000 bales) and India (100,000 bales). Total use grew by 640,000 bales mainly due to increases in mill use for China (1,000,000 bales), Turkey (200,000 bales), and the United States (100,000 bales), which were partially offset by lower use for India, Europe, and others.
Since the February report, the major changes for the world 2003/04 forecasts are as follows:
China: Forecasts for China’s imports and use were adjusted to reflect higher imports (1.5 million bales), mill use (1.0 million bales), and ending stocks (100,000 bales) due to the availability of new official data.
Iran: The 2003/04 forecasts for area and production for Iran were adjusted to reflect higher area and production (170,000 bales). The additional production, mainly due to a favorable weather conditions, is expected to reduce imports by 50,000 bales and increase exports by 92,000 bales.
Australia: Australia’s 2003/04 exports increased by 175,000 bales in March, due to a 100,000 bales increase in the production forecast, with an additional 75,000 bales coming from stocks.
Brazil: The 2003/04 forecasts for area, production, trades, and ending stocks for Brazil were adjusted to reflect higher area, production (200,000 bales), imports (50,000 bales), exports (100,000 bales), and ending stocks (150,000 bales).
India: The 2003/04 forecasts for area, production, and mill use for India were revised to reflect lower area (400,000 hectares), production (100,000 bales), and use (300,000 bales) based on reports from India. India’s cotton exports, however, are expected to increase by 200,000 bales.
Turkey: The 2003/04 forecasts for mill use and trade were revised to reflect higher use (200,000 bales), imports (350,000 bales), and exports (100,000 bales); these changes are consistent with trade activity through November. The increase in Turkish exports of textile and apparel to EU, due to Euro's strength against Turkey's Lira, is likely the key to the increase in domestic mill use and imports.
Sudan: The 2003/04 forecasts for Sudan were revised to reflect lower area, production (125,000 bales), and exports (100,000 bales), based on reports from trade sources.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In February, the index averaged 73.91 cents per pound, down 2.25 cents from January’s average. In New York, the nearby March future contract settlement price increased 1.37 cents between the end of January and the end of February, closing at 72.10 cents per pound on February 27.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| January | December | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 24,879 bales | 25,550 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 496,152 bales | 523,533 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.49 million bales | 6.67 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.20 million | 2.22 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 55.8% | 55.4% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 81.73% | 82.61% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 346,615 bales | 338,438 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 13.5 million bales | 14.9 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Mill buyers purchased a very light volume of 2003-crop cotton for prompt delivery and a light volume for delivery through August 2004. Mill inquiries for 2004-crop cotton increased. Demand for ring-spun yarn was moderate. Most mills operated a five to six day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $494 million or 1.4 million bales in December according to Census data, up from $316.6 million or 948,000 bales in November. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in December at 750,000 bales or $260 million, followed by Turkey at 87,000 bales or $28.1 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS increased to $1.6 million (3,703 bales) in December from $327,000 (698 bales) in November. Egypt accounted for $1.1 million (2,589 bales), Turkmenistan accounted for $244,000 (546 bales), Australia accounted for $233,000 (466 bales), and India accounted for $28,000 (103 bales) in December. In November, Australia accounted for $232,000 (464 bales) and Egypt accounted for $93,000 (229 bales).
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