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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,519 |
88,274 |
92,650 |
5.0% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
18,224 |
5.9% |
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Imports |
29,377 |
30,446 |
32,371 |
6.3% |
21 |
67 |
50 |
-25.4% |
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Consumption |
94,552 |
98,070 |
97,240 |
-0.8% |
7,696 |
7,269 |
6,200 |
-14.7% |
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Exports |
28,937 |
30,559 |
32,019 |
4.8% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
13,200 |
10.9% |
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Ending Stocks |
46,926 |
36,767 |
32,490 |
-11.6% |
7,448 |
5,385 |
4,250 |
-21.1% |
The U.S. estimates for 2002/03 and preceding years were unchanged. Projections for 2003/04 are also unchanged. With 13.2 million bales (unchanged) projected exports, the U.S. is expected to enjoy record cotton exports this marketing year.
The world estimates for MY 2002/03 were revised to reflect higher production and use, but lower trade and ending stocks. The use was up 147,000 bales mainly due to an increase for Pakistan.
The 2003/04 world forecasts as compared to last month show higher production, use, and ending stocks, but lower beginning stocks and trade. The production was up 455,000 bales mainly due to an increase for China. The total use grew by 129,000 bales mainly due to increases in mill use for China (300,000 bales) and Pakistan (200,000 bales), which was offset by lower use for Europe and Russia.
Since the January report, the major changes for the world 2003/04 forecasts are as follows:
China: Forecasts for China’s production and use were adjusted to reflect both higher production (400,000 bales), use (300,000 bales), and exports (100,000 bales) due to the availability of new official data.
Pakistan: The 2002/03 estimates, as well as the 2003/04 forecast for Pakistan’s use were adjusted to reflect additional use of 200,000 bales. For 2002/03, the additional use was expected to reduce ending stocks. For 2003/04, however, additional imports are expected to accommodate higher consumption.
Australia: Australia’s 2003/04 exports increased by 100,000 bales in February due to a 100,000 bales increase in the production forecast.
Brazil: The 2003/04 forecast for Brazilian cotton imports was increased by 100,000 bales based on trade data. Brazil is expected to increase its ending stocks by the same magnitude.
Russia: The 2003/04 forecast for Russia’s cotton use was lowered by 100,000 bales based on trade data, indicating lower imports.
Italy: The 2003/04 forecast for Italy’s use and imports were lowered by 100,000 bales.
Greece: The 2003/04 forecast for production in Greece was lowered by 100,000 bales. Greece is expected to reduce its exports by the same magnitude.
Hong Kong: The 2003/04 forecast for Hong Kong’s use was lowered by 60,000 bales based on the year-to-date trade data. Hong Kong is expected to lower its imports by 65,000 bales.
Germany: The 2003/04 forecast for Germany’s imports was lowered by 50,000 bales due to a decline in year-to-date imports compared to last year. Lower consumption drove imports down by 50,000 bales.
Zimbabwe: The 2003/04 forecast for Zimbabwe’s exports was lowered by 50,000 bales due to a 65,000 bales decline in production forecast.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In January, the index averaged 76.16 cents per pound, up 2.80 cents from December’s average. In New York, the nearby March future contract settlement price decreased 4.34 cents between the end of December and the end of January, closing at 70.73 cents per pound on January 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| December | November | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 23,377 bales | 25,162 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 527,231 bales | 486,214 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.62 million bales | 6.57 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.23 million | 2.27 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 55% | 56% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 82.74% | 81.67% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 338,170 bales | 352,295 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 14.9 million bales | 13.2 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Mill buyers purchased a light volume of 2003-crop cotton for March 2004 through July 2004 delivery. Buyers made additional inquiries for a light volume of cotton for delivery through September 2004. Some mill buyers took advantage of lower futures prices to fix a light volume of previously contracted cotton. Mill inquiries for 2004-crop cotton increased. Demand for ring-spun yarn was moderate to good. Demand for open-end yarn was light. Most mills operated on a five or six-day schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $316.6 million or 948,267 bales in November according to Census data, up from $143.9 million in October or 482,457 bales. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in June at 370,000 bales or $123 million, followed by Mexico at 168,343 bales or $25 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS fell to $327,000 (699 bales) in November from $3.3 million (8,357 bales) in October. Australia accounted for 464 bales, and Egypt accounted for 229 bales in November, while Egypt accounted for all imports in October.
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