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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,519 |
88,034 |
92,171 |
4.7% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
18,215 |
5.8% |
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Imports |
29,555 |
30,683 |
32,461 |
5.8% |
21 |
67 |
50 |
-25.4% |
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Consumption |
94,575 |
97,933 |
97,171 |
-0.8% |
7,696 |
7,269 |
6,200 |
-14.7% |
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Exports |
29,092 |
30,609 |
32,109 |
4.9% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
13,200 |
10.9% |
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Ending Stocks |
46,943 |
36,868 |
32,190 |
-12.7% |
7,448 |
5,385 |
4,250 |
-21.1% |
In December, there were no changes to the United States forecast.
World: The world production estimate for 2003/04 is up 30,000 bales in December, while consumption is down 521,000 bales. As a result of decreased consumption, imports also fell by 279,000 bales, which in turn decreased demand for exports by 151,000 bales.
China: There were no changes for China this month.
India: India’s 2003/04 production was raised in December by 200,000 bales to 12.7 million bales. At the same time, India's consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to higher cotton prices. The increased production resulted in India’s import demand in 2003/04 being lowered 150,000 bales to 1 million bales. As a result, India’s cotton exports were raised 200,000 bales in December.
Asia
Japan: Japan’s imports and consumption were lowered by 100,000 bales and 75,000 bales respectively. Consumption is declining due to rising textile imports.
EU and Middle East
Greece: 2003/04 production in Greece is down 70,000 bales from the November forecast. Exports from Greece were reduced by 100,000 bales because of the lower production forecast and reduced world import demand.
Turkey: Turkey’s production in 2002/03 was increased 45,000 bales this month; however, production in 2003/04 is down 100,000 bales from the November forecast. Turkey’s consumption is reduced 100,000 bales based on as FAS Post report which indicates that higher cotton prices and unfavorable exchange rates have adversely affected teextile production.
Egypt: The December production forecast is down 75,000 bales, bringing the 2003/004 forecast to 875,000 bales, 435,000 lower than last year. Because of the decrease in production and the current government export policy, the export forecast was reduced by 100,000 bales.
Americas
Mexico: Mexico’s 2003/04 import forecast is up 150,000 bales, as sales from the U.S. begin to gain momentum.
Former Soviet Union (FSU)
Turkmenistan: Estimated production is up 100,000 bales in Turkmenistan for 2003/04. The consumption forecast is raised based on reports of increased consumption, and the export forecast is raised based on larger supplies.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In November, the index averaged 76.94 cents per pound, up 4.38 cents from October’s average. In New York, the nearby December futures contract settlement price declined 7.73 cents between the end of October and the end of November, closing at 69.00 cents per pound on November 26.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| October | September | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 23,474 bales | 23,660 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 503,150 bales | 622,798 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.1 million bales | 6.2 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.4 million | 2.4 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 56% | 56% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 82.15% | 82.28% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 328,138 bales | 404,608 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 8.5 million bales | 4.6 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile mill report. Domestic mill purchases were moderate. A few mill buyers made inquiries for a light volume of cotton for delivery through January 2004 and a moderate volume of 2003-crop cotton for delivery through July 2004. As the end of the year approached many mills began focusing on reducing inventory levels, resulting in some changes in operating schedules.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $100 million or 354,000 bales in August according to Census data, down from $152 million or 575,600 million bales in August. Again, Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cotton in August at 71,000 bales or $19.0 million, followed by Indonesia at 29,000 or $7.9 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS increased to $2.4 million (2264 bales) in September from $1.5 million (2,264 bales) in August. In September, Egypt accounted for most imports with a small amount coming from Australia.
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