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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,464 |
87,989 |
94,495 |
7.4% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
17,559 |
2.0% |
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Imports |
29,497 |
30,460 |
30,735 |
0.9% |
21 |
67 |
50 |
-25.4% |
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Consumption |
94,226 |
97,452 |
98,452 |
1.0% |
7,696 |
7,269 |
6,400 |
-12.0% |
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Exports |
29,052 |
30,629 |
30,330 |
-1.0% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
12,000 |
0.8% |
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Ending Stocks |
47,190 |
37,308 |
33,732 |
-9.6% |
7,448 |
5,385 |
4,600 |
-14.6% |
The U.S. estimates for 2002/03 were revised to reflect small changes in imports, use and ending stocks based on the U.S. Census Bureau's end of season report.
The U.S. forecasts for MY 2003/04 was revised to reflect higher production and ending stocks, while domestic mill use declined. U.S. production for 2003/04 was revised to 17.6
million bales an increase of 620,000 bales or a 3.7 percent change from last month. Domestic mill use declined 200,000 bales compared to last month. Ending stocks were raised to 4.6 million bales a 21.1-percent change (800,000 bales) from last month.
Historical changes where made in Europe, Venezuela, and Brazil, to reflect lower imports, consumption, production, area, and stocks.
The world estimates for MY 2002/03 were revised due to the availability of complete market year data. Production was raised 90,000 bales due to an increase in the production estimate for Brazil. The world import estimate was decreased to reflect a decline in imports from Europe (120,000 bales) and Venezuela (130,000 bales). Along with imports, use was also down in Europe (79,000 bales) and Venezuela (125,000 bales). Exports and stocks experienced little change.
The world estimates for MY 2003/04 were revised to reflect an increased production and ending stocks, while imports, use, and exports decreased. The world production estimate is up 1.1 million bales. The majority of this increase is from the U.S (620,000 bales), India (500,000 bales) and Brazil (150,000 bales); however, this increase was offset by a decline in Former Soviet Union (FSU) production (250,000 bales). World imports also deceased due to a 400,000-bale decrease in India’s imports, a 130,000-bale decline in Venezuela, and 98,000 bales in Europe. A 500,000-bale increase in China helped decrease the magnitude of the import decline to 168,000 bales. Exports from Brazil (200,000 bales) and Franc Zone Africa (50,000 bales) increased, while exports from the FSU fell by 210,000 bales. Consumption in China rose by 200,000 bales, but was more than offset by declines in U.S. (200,000 bales), Turkey (150,000 bales), Venezuela (125,000 bales), and Europe (89,000 bales), leaving consumption down 409,000 bales from last month. Ending stocks were up 1.5 million bales with most of the increase in the United States, China, Turkey, and India.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In September, the index averaged 63.55 cents per pound, up 3.03 cents from August’s average. In New York, the nearby October futures contract settlement price rose 9.20 cents between the end of August and the end of September, closing at 66.75 cents per pound on September 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| August | July | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 24,137 bales | 27,025 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 497,692 bales | 473,579 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6 million bales | 7 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2 million | 2 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 55% | 55% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.36% | 80.42% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 412,217 bales | 408,190 bales |
| Cotton stocks in public storage | 4.387 million bales | 4.646 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile mill report. Domestic mill purchases were slow. Reports indicated that mill buyers were reluctant to buy at the current price levels. Mill buyers purchased a very light volume of 2003-crop cotton for December 2003 through March 2004 delivery. A few mills have delayed some of their October deliveries to November. Sales of finished products continued to determine when and how much additional raw cotton would be purchased.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $371 million or 1.5 million bales in July according to Census data, up from $255 million or 1 million bales in June. Turkey was the top destination for U.S. cotton in July at 307,000 bales or $73.6 million, followed by Mexico at 280,000 bales or $74.1 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS decreased to $2.7 million (7,257 bales) in July from $3.8 million (8,133 bales) in June. Egypt accounted for $2.3 million (5,772 bales) and Australia accounted for $323,000 (1947 bales) in July. In June, Egypt accounted for $3.8 million (8,027 bales) and India accounted for $29,000 (106 bales).
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