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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,463 |
87,899 |
95,355 |
6.2% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
16,939 |
-1.6% |
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Imports |
29,615 |
30,737 |
30,903 |
0.5% |
21 |
65 |
50 |
-23.1% |
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Consumption |
94,381 |
97,683 |
99,861 |
1.2% |
7,696 |
7,266 |
6,600 |
-9.2% |
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Exports |
29,052 |
30,634 |
30,415 |
-0.7% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
12,000 |
-0.8% |
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Ending Stocks |
47,186 |
37,264 |
32,222 |
-13.5% |
7,448 |
5,400 |
3,800 |
-29.6% |
The U.S. estimates for MY 2002/03 were revised to reflect lower use (34,000 bales) and ending stocks (100,000 bales).
The U.S. forecast for MY 2003/04 was revised to reflect lower beginning stocks and production, higher exports and lower ending stocks. The U.S. production forecast for MY 2003/04 was lowered to 16.9 million bales, 165,000 bales less than last month. The decrease in production reflects lower forecasts for Southeast and Southwest regions, which was partially offset by an increase for the Delta states. Domestic mill use remains unchanged at 6.6 million bales. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.8 million bales, down 500,000 bales. U.S. exports are expected to reach record 12 million bales, exceeding last year’s record.
The world estimates for MY 2001/02 remained unchanged
The world estimates for MY 2002/03 were revised to reflect higher exports, and lower production, imports, use, and ending stocks. Exports were up 90,000 bales due primarily to a 175,000-bale increase in the export estimate for Turkey, which was partially offset by a decrease of 100,000 bales for Egypt. Production was down 90,000 bales mainly due to a reduction in the production estimate for Uzbekistan (100,000 bales). Imports were down 125,000 bales mainly due to a reduction in the import estimate for Taiwan (100,000 bales). Total use was down 84,000 bales mainly due to reduction in domestic use by Brazil (50,000 bales) and the U.S. (34,000 bales). Ending stocks were down by 355,000 bales due to the reduction in ending stocks for Turkey (175,000 bales), the U.S. (100,000 bales), and Taiwan (100,000 bales).
The world estimates for MY 2003/04 were revised to reflect higher trade, but lower production, use, and ending stocks. Production was down 2 million bales mainly due to reduction in the production estimate for China (1.5 million bales), the United States (165,000 bales), Pakistan (150,000 bales), and Paraguay (100,000 bales). Imports were up 445,000 bales due to higher import estimates for China (800,000 bales) and Pakistan (150,000 bales), which was partially offset by small import estimate declines in several countries. Exports were up 405,000 bales due to higher export estimates for the U.S. (200,000 bales), Australia (150,000 bales), and Brazil (100,000 bales), which were partially offset by a 100,000-bale decrease in China’s export estimate. Total use was down 300,000 bales mainly due to reductions in domestic mill use by Brazil (50,000 bales), Indonesia (50,000 bales), Italy (50,000 bales), Russian Federation (50,000 bales), and Taiwan (50,000 bales). Ending stocks were down 2.1 million bales, mainly due to reductions for China (674,000 bales), the U.S (500,000 bales), Turkey (225,000 bales), and Australia (205,000 bales).
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In August, the index averaged 60.52 cents per pound, up 0.31 cents from July's average. In New York, the nearby October futures contract settlement price rose 0.64 cents between the end of July and the end of August, closing at 57.55 cents per pound on Aug 29.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| July | June | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 26,994 bales | 254,38 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 469,994 bales | 640,510 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 7 million bales | 7 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2 million | 3 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 55% | 55% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.34% | 80.70% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 399,300 bales | 418,298 bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Domestic mill buyers purchased a very light volume of 2002-crop cotton for prompt and nearby delivery. Mills bought a light volume of 2003-crop cotton for delivery in September 2003 through March 2004. Demand was highest for Memphis/Eastern cotton. Sales of finished products continued to determine when and how much additional raw cotton would be purchased. Inventory control continued to drive production schedules, with some reporting that additional time was being scheduled in late summer. Most mills operated a five to six day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $2.7 billion or 11.2 million bales in MY2002/2003 according to Census Data, up $544.5 million or 800,000 bales from MY2001/02. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in May at 1.8 million bales or $425.7 million, followed closely by Mexico at 1.78 million bales or $423.3 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS rose to $3.8 million (8,027 bales) in May from $1.7 million (4,643 bales) in April. Egypt accounted for all imports for both months.
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