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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,463 |
87,989 |
95,375 |
8.4% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
17,104 |
-0.6% |
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Imports |
29,615 |
30,862 |
30,458 |
-1.3% |
21 |
65 |
50 |
-23.1% |
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Consumption |
94,381 |
97,767 |
99,161 |
1.4% |
7,696 |
7,300 |
6,600 |
-9.6% |
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Exports |
29,052 |
30,544 |
30,010 |
-1.7% |
11,000 |
11,900 |
11,800 |
-0.8% |
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Ending Stocks |
47,186 |
37,619 |
34,292 |
-8.8% |
7,448 |
5,500 |
4,300 |
-21.8% |
The U.S. estimates for MY 2002/03 were revised to reflect higher exports (300,000 bales) and lower ending stocks (300,000 bales).
The U.S. forecast for MY 2003/04 was revised to reflect higher production and ending stocks, and lower domestic mill use. The U.S. production forecast for MY 2003/04 was revised to 17.1 million bales, 0.5 million bales or 3 percent higher compared to last month, but slightly below MY 2002/03. Domestic mill use is down 200,000 bales compared to last month’s forecast. Ending stocks are forecast at 4.3 million bales, up 400,000 bales. U.S. exports are expected to reach 11.8 million bales, 0.1 million bales below last year’s record.
The world estimates for MY 2001/02 were revised to reflect slightly lower beginning stocks, imports, use, and ending stocks.
The world estimates for MY 2002/03 were revised to reflect lower use and higher production, trade, and ending stocks. Production was up 273,000 bales due to an increase in the production estimate for Australia (300,000 bales). Imports were up 680,000 bales mainly due to an increase in the import estimate for China (600,000 bales). Total use was down 62,000 bales mainly due to reductions in estimated domestic use for Taiwan (150,000 bales) and India (100,000 bales), which was partially offset by an increase for China (200,000 bales). Ending stocks were up by 658,000 bales due to increases in ending stocks estimated for China (400,000 bales), Australia (200,000 bales), and Mexico (150,000 bales).
The world estimates for MY 2003/04 were revised to reflect higher production, trade, use, and ending stocks. Production was up 540,000 bales mainly due to increases in production estimates for the U.S. (504,000 bales) and India (300,000 bales), which were partially offset by reductions in Australia (200,000 bales). Imports were up 190,000 bales due to a larger import estimates for China (400,000 bales) and others, which were partially offset by lower imports for Taiwan (200,000 bales). Total use was up 25,000 bales mainly due to an increase in estimated domestic mill use for China (500,000 bales), which was partially offset by reduction in the U.S. (200,0000 bales). Ending stocks were up, by 1.3 million bales or 4 percent, mainly due to increases for the U.S. (400,000 bales), India (400,000 bales), and China (300,000 bales).
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In July, the index averaged 60.19 cents per pound, up 1.69 cents from June's average. In New York, the nearby October futures contract settlement price rose 0.71 cents between the end of June and the end of July, closing at 56.91 cents per pound on July 31.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| June | May | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 25,139 bales | 25,882 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 638,340 bales | 542,696 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.561 million bales | 6.755 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.53 million | 2.57 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 57% | 56% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.80% | 80.90% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 420,483 bales | 482,540 bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Domestic mill buyers purchased a very light volume of 2002-crop cotton for prompt and nearby delivery. Mills bought a light volume of 2003-crop cotton for delivery in September 2003 through March 2004. Demand was highest for Memphis/Eastern cotton. Sales of finished products continued to determine when and how much additional raw cotton would be purchased. Inventory control continued to drive production schedules, with some reporting that additional time was being scheduled in late summer. Most mills operated a five to six day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $294 million or 1.2 million bales in May according to Census Data, down from $320 million in April or 1.26 million bales. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in May at 228,000 bales or $56 million, followed closely by Mexico at 214,000 bales or $48.5 million.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS rose to $1.7 million (4,643 bales) in May from $1.5 million (4,155 bales) in April. Egypt accounted for all imports for both months.
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