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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,462 |
87,716 |
94,835 |
8.1% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
16,600 |
-3.5% |
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Imports |
29,656 |
30,182 |
30,268 |
0.3% |
21 |
60 |
50 |
-16.7% |
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Consumption |
94,453 |
97,829 |
99,136 |
1.3% |
7,696 |
7,300 |
6,800 |
-6.8% |
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Exports |
29,052 |
30,209 |
29,980 |
-0.8% |
11,000 |
11,600 |
11,800 |
1.7% |
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Ending Stocks |
47,203 |
36,961 |
32,963 |
-10.8% |
7,448 |
5,800 |
3,900 |
-32.8% |
The U.S. estimates for 2001/02 are unchanged.
The estimates for 2002/03 show higher exports and lower consumption and ending stocks. The rate of U.S. exports continues higher than last year at this time. U.S. exports are expected to reach a record 11.6 million bales, surpassing the MY 1926/27 record of 11.3 million bales. Both domestic consumption and ending stocks are down by 100,000 bales.
The U.S. MY 2003/04 production was revised down 600,000 bales or 3.5 percent, from last month. Domestic use is revised down by 400,000 bales to 6.8 million bales. U.S. exports, on the other hand, are expected to reach another record of 11.8 million bales in MY 2003/04. Ending stocks are also down 600,000 bales at 3.9 million bales, the lowest level since 1997/98.
The world estimates for MY 2001/02 were revised to reflect higher production, imports, exports, and ending stocks. Production was up 110,000 bales due to a production increase for Syria. Imports were up 160,000 bales due to an increase for Mexico. Total use was down 51,000 bales as reductions by Brazil and Canada were partially offset by an increase for Mexico. Ending stocks were revised upward by 245,000 bales. An increase in ending stocks for Brazil and Syria was more than a decrease for Mexico.
The world estimates for MY 2002/03 were also revised to reflect higher production, imports, exports, and ending stocks. Production was up 267,000 bales mainly due to increases in the production estimate for Pakistan (100,000 bales), Uzbekistan (200,000 bales), and Zambia (70,000 bales), which more than offset a decrease in production for Syria of 149,000 bales. Imports are up 160,000 bales due to an increase in the import estimate for Mexico. Total use is down 205,000 bales mainly due to a 150,000-bale reduction in domestic use by Brazil. Ending stocks were revised upward by 626,000 bales as increases in ending stocks for Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan more than offset a decrease for China.
The 2003/04 world forecast as compared to last month has slightly higher beginning stocks, production is down nearly 700,000 bales, use is up slightly and ending stocks down 200,000 bales to 33.0 million bales.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In June, the index averaged 64.29 cents per pound, up 1.92 cents from May's average. In New York, the nearby July futures contract settlement price rose 5.62 cents between the end of May and the end of June, closing at 56.20 cents per pound on June 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| April | March | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 25,957 bales | 27,046 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 540,558 bales | 561,056 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 6.78 million bales | 7.06 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.59 million | 2.62 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 56% | 57% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.90% | 81.00% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 483,398 bales | 476,338 bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile mill report. Domestic mill purchases of 2002-crop cotton were very light. Some mill buyers continued to accept a higher mike average than contracted. Other mill buyers continued to switch from Memphis/Eastern cotton to Texas cotton to obtain lower mike averages. Mill purchases of 2003-crop cotton were slowed by the rise in the NY futures prices. Sales of finished products continued to determine when and how much additional raw cotton would be purchased.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $320 million or 1.26 million bales in April according to Census data, down from $337 million or 1.37 million bales in March. China was the largest destination in April with $91 million or 362 thousand bales, followed by Turkey with $34 million or 149 thousand bales.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS rose from $1.4 million (3,828 bales) in March to $1.5 million (4,155 bales) April. Egypt accounted for almost all imports in both months.
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