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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,352 |
87,449 |
95,500 |
9% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
17,200 |
0% |
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Imports |
29,496 |
30,020 |
31,000 |
3% |
21 |
60 |
50 |
-17% |
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Consumption |
94,504 |
98,034 |
99,000 |
1% |
7,696 |
7,400 |
7,200 |
-3% |
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Exports |
29,042 |
29,996 |
30,700 |
2% |
11,000 |
11,400 |
11,500 |
1% |
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Ending Stocks |
46,958 |
36,335 |
33,315 |
-6% |
7,448 |
5,900 |
4,500 |
-24% |
The U.S. estimates for 2001/02 are unchanged this month.
The estimates for 2002/03 show higher exports and lower consumption and ending stocks. The rate of U.S. export sales continues higher than expected, so the U.S. forecast shows an increase of 400,000 bales to a record 11.4 million bales, surpassing the 11.3-million bale record set in 1926/27. Domestic consumption is decreased by 100,000 bales and ending stocks are down 300,000 bales.
The U.S. estimates for 2003/04 reflect lower consumption, beginning stocks and ending stocks. Production and exports are unchanged. Domestic mill use is projected at 7.2 million bales, down 100,000 bales from May, in line with the decrease in the 02/03 mill use. U.S. cotton exports are unchanged at 11.5 million bales. Stocks are decreased by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales, or 24 percent of total use.
The 2001/02 world estimates have slightly higher beginning stocks, due to historical revisons for Argentina's production, see Supplement A. Imports are up 200,000 bales, due to a 200,000-bale increase in the import estimate for India. Ending stocks are up 479,000 bales.
The 2002/03 world estimates have higher beginning stocks being more than offset by lower production, higher use and lower imports. Lower production; down 300,000 bales in India, 200,000 bales in Uzbekistan, and 100,000 bales in Paraguay, is partially offset by a 100,000-bale increase in Brazil. Use is up 235,000 bales as a 500,000 bale increase in China is partially offset by 100,000-bale decreases in Brazil, India, and the United States. Total world exports are relatively unchanged with decreases in Uzbekistan, Egypt, and Paraguay largely offsetting the increase in the United States. Ending stock are down 369,000 bales with decreases in China (500,000 bales) and the United States (300,000 bales) more than offsetting increases in Argentina and Brazil.
The 2003/04 forecast has slightly lower beginning stocks, production down 1.0 million bales and ending stocks down 1.4 million bales to 33.14 million.
80,000 bales.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In May, the index averaged 57.80 cents per pound, down 2.28 cents from April's average. In New York, the nearby July futures contract settlement price fell 3.37 cents between the end of April and the end of May, closing at 50.58 cents per pound on May 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| April | March | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 27,202 bales | 27,731 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 560,844 bales | 732,521 bales |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 7,100 million bales | 7,238 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.65 million | 2.67 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 57% | 57% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 81.10% | 80.50% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 476,642 bales | 473,502 bales |
| Stocks held in public storage and compresses | 9,300 million bales | 11.398 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile mill report. Domestic mill buyers purchased a very light volume of 2002-crop cotton. Qualities purchased were mostly discounted lots containing light spotted cotton. Interest in 2003-crop cotton was moderate and a light to moderate volume of cotton was booked. Demand for open-end yarn declined this week due to last week’s closing of a Levi Strauss denim plant. WestPoint Stevens, Inc. also announced this week that it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Allocated funds and no plant closings at this point allowed shipments to continue. Mills resumed a normal work schedule after most of them took a full week off for the Memorial Day holiday.
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