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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
% Change |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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2002/03 - 2003/04 |
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Production |
98,349 |
87,912 |
96,500 |
10% |
20,303 |
17,209 |
17,200 |
0% |
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Imports |
29,294 |
30,125 |
31,000 |
3% |
21 |
50 |
50 |
0% |
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Consumption |
94,504 |
97,799 |
99,000 |
1% |
7,696 |
7,500 |
7,300 |
-3% |
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Exports |
29,042 |
29,961 |
30,700 |
2% |
11,000 |
11,000 |
11,500 |
5% |
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Ending Stocks |
46,479 |
36,704 |
34,504 |
-6% |
7,448 |
6,200 |
4,700 |
-24% |
The first U.S. estimates for 2003/04 reflect lower consumption, higher exports and a large decrease in ending stocks. Production is projected to remain nearly unchanged at
17.2 million bales. Domestic mill use is projected at 7.3 million bales, down 2.7 percent from 2002/03 continuing a downward trend that began in 1998/99. U.S. cotton exports are projected at 11.5 million bales, increasing 500,000 bales from 2002/03,
and surpassing the 11.3 million bale record set in 1926/27. Exports are expected to benefit from strong foreign import demand and large exportable supplies in the U.S. Stocks are expected to decrease 24 percent (1.5 million bales) to 4.7 million bales, or
25 percent of total use.
The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 and 2001/02 are changed slightly this month based on Census data. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are decreased 1,000 bales, while the unaccounted difference (negative loss) loss was decreased 1,000 bales. In 2001/02, domestic consumption decreased 25,000 bales, while ending stocks increased 22,000 bales and loss increased 2,000 bales.
This month's U.S. forecast for 2002/2003 shows several changes. The rate of U.S. export sales growth has been higher than
expected, so U.S. exports increased 200,000 bales. Both domestic consumption and ending stocks decreased by 100,000 bales. Area harvested increased 5,000 hectares while domestic consumption increased 3,000 bales.
The 2000/01 and 2001/02 world estimates are changed slightly this month to reflect the changes in the U.S. data outline above.
The 2002/03 forecast includes increased use, production and trade while area planted is down slightly compared with last month. Production is increased by
68,000 bales primarily due to a 50,000-bale increase in each of Greece and Zimbabwe, along with a small increase in the U.S., which was partially offset by a 15,000 decrease in each of Uganda and Paraguay. Forecasted world use is unchanged. Imports are increased 305,000 bales primarily due to increases of 100,000 bales in Taiwan and India, along with a 50,000-bale increases in Korea and Pakistan. Forecast exports are up by 290,000 bales from last month, with a 200,000-bale increase from the U.S., along with a 50,000-bale increase from Greece. Pakistan and Zimbabwe’s exports each increased 25,000 bales. These were partially offset by a 15,000-bale decrease in Uganda and a
10,000-bale decrease in Paraguay. Area planted decreased by 10,000 hectares, led by a decrease of 15,000 hectares in South Africa, which was offset by a 5,000 hectare increase in the U.S. World ending stocks increased by 80,000 bales.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In April, the index averaged 60.08 cents per pound, down 0.06 cents from March's average. In New York, the nearby May futures contract settlement price fell 3.76 cents between the end of March and the end of April, closing at 53.95 cents per pound on April 30.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| March | February | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 27,735 bales | 28,150 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 729,948 | 575,731 |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 7.239 million bales | 7.347 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.66 million | 2.65 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 57% | 57% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 80.50% | 81.10% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 473,798 bales | 459,610 bales |
| Stocks held in public storage and compresses | 11.334 million bales | 13.593 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
Textile Mill Report. Domestic mill buyers purchased a very light volume of 2002-crop cotton for June through August delivery. Demand was good for higher white color grades with staple 34 and longer, mike 37-45, and strength 26 and higher. Demand for this quality was expected to stay good as supplies of this type cotton decreased. Interest in 2003-crop cotton was moderate leading to a booking of light volume of cotton. Mill buyers delayed some purchases of 2003-crop cotton until they had a better idea of their raw cotton needs. Demand for ring-spun yarn was moderate and demand for open-end yarn was good. Most mills operated on a five to six day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $211 million or 892 thousand bales in February according to Census data, up from $208 million or 782 thousand bales in January. Turkey was by far the largest destination in February, followed by Mexico accounting for $49 million (221 thousand bales) and $27 million (120 thousand bales), respectively.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS fell to $2.5 million (6,518 bales) in February from $3 million (8,116) in January. Egypt accounted for virtually all imports in February.
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