April 2003 Edition:

World Stocks at Lowest Level Since 1994/95

The April estimate for MY2002/03 has total ending stocks at 36.6 million bales, down 941,000 bales from the March estimate. Stocks tightened this month as use increased and production decreased. Lower stocks are forecast in Pakistan, Egypt, India, Brazil, and China. 

Ending stocks for 2002/03 are forecast down 21 percent or nearly 10 million bales from 2001/02. Tightening stocks in China account for over one third (3.6 million bales) of the total decrease from 2001/02. Stocks tightened by over one million bales in Australia, India and the United States. Lower stocks are forecast in most producing countries, while stocks in non-production consuming countries are generally stable or down slightly. The tightening stock situation is reflected in the A-index. The 2002/03 average (1 Aug. 2002 to date) is more than 25 percent above last season’s average.

Ending stocks for 2002/03 are now forecast at the lowest level since 1994/95 and are down nearly 25 percent from the record 47.9 million bale ending stock level in 1998/99. Much of the decrease in recent years is due to lower stock levels in China. China’s 2002/03 ending stocks are forecast at 9.3 million bales down 28 percent from 2001/02 and down 60 percent from 1998/99. In fact, 2002/03 world-less-China ending stocks are higher than in 1998/99. While U.S. ending stocks for 2002/03 are forecast down 15 percent from the previous year, they are still nearly double the average seen during the 1990's.

Download the entire circular.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf).

Tables

• Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}
• Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2001/2002-2002/2003 {.pdf}
• Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}
• Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
• Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2002/2003 {.pdf}
• Table 13:Summary of Changes 2000/02-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005