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World and
U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook |
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Marketing
Years 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2002/03 |
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1,000
480-Lb. Bales |
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World |
U.S. |
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2000/01 |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
% Change |
2000/01 |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
% Change |
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2001/02 - 2002/03 |
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2001/02 - 2002/03 |
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Production |
88,682 |
98,349 |
87,844 |
-10.7% |
17,188 |
20,303 |
17,206 |
-15.3% |
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Imports |
26,607 |
29,294 |
29,820 |
1.8% |
16 |
21 |
50 |
138.1% |
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Consumption |
92,167 |
94,529 |
97,799 |
3.5% |
8,862 |
7,721 |
7,600 |
-1.6% |
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Exports |
26,589 |
29,042 |
29,671 |
2.2% |
6,740 |
11,000 |
10,800 |
-1.8% |
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Ending Stocks |
42,442 |
46,457 |
36,624 |
-21.2% |
6,001 |
7,426 |
6,300 |
-15.2% |
The U.S. estimates for 2001/02 are unchanged this month.
This month's U.S. forecast for 2002/2003 shows only minor changes. The production estimate is raised 61,000 bales, reflecting USDA's March 21 Cotton Ginnings report. Imports are increased 10,000 bales while domestic mill use and exports remained unchanged. Ending stocks are increased slightly at 6.3 million bales.
The 2001/02 world estimates are unchanged this month.
The 2002/03 forecast includes increased use and trade while production is down slightly compared with last month. Production is decreased by 145,000 bales primarily due to a 200,000-bale decrease in India and 100,000 bales in Pakistan and these were partially offset by a 75,000-bale increase in Syria and 61,000 bales in the U.S. along with other small increases. Forecasted world use is increased by 725,000 bales, which includes a 500,000-bale increase in China, 200,000 bales in Pakistan and 150,000 bales in Egypt. These increases are partially offset by a 100,00-bale decrease in each of India, Russia and Turkey, along with other small changes. Imports are increased 260,000 bales primarily due to an increase of 350,000 bales in China, 125,000 bales in Taiwan and 100,000 bales in Thailand with smaller increases elsewhere. Decreases in imports of 200,000 bales in each of Brazil and India and 100,000 bales in Russia partially offset the increase. Forecast exports are up by 360,000 bales from last month, with a 200,000-bale increase in Egypt and 75,000 bales in Pakistan with other small increases which are partially offset by small decreases. World ending stocks are decreased by 941,000 bales.
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In March, the index averaged 61.04 cents per pound, up 2.79 cents from February's average. In New York, the May futures contract settlement price fell 0.58 cents between the end of February and the end of March, closing at 57.71 cents per pound on March 31.
| U.S. Cotton Consumption and Stocks | ||
| February | January | |
| Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption | 27,918 bales | 28,267 bales |
| Total bales consumed per month | 573,073 | 696,148 |
| Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate | 7.29 million bales | 7.38 million bales |
| Active spindles | 2.65 million | 2.64 million |
| % Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton | 57% | 57% |
| Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system | 81.10% | 80.90% |
| U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills | 460,269 bales | 452,354 bales |
| Stocks held in public storage and compresses | 13.51 million bales | 15.12 million bales |
| Source: Census Bureau | ||
TEXTILE MILL REPORT: Domestic mill buyers bought a light volume of 2002-crop cotton for May through August delivery. Demand was good for higher white color grades with staple 34 and longer, mike 37-45 and strength 26 and higher. Demand was moderate for lower color grades with mike 50-52. Interest in 2003-crop cotton was moderate, and a light volume of cotton was booked. Other mill buyers bought more raw cotton to meet production needs required by sales of finished goods. Most mills operated on a five to six day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $208 million or 782 thousand bales in January according to Census data, down from $219 million or 946 thousand bales in December. Mexico was the largest destination in January, closely followed by Turkey accounting for $32 million (44 thousand bales) and $30 million (44 thousand bales), respectively.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS rose to $3 million (8,116 thousand bales) in January from $2.8 (7,036 bales) million in December. Egypt accounted for almost all imports in both months.
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