U.S. Cotton Outlook

The U.S. estimates for 2001/02 are unchanged this month.

This month's U.S. forecast for 2002/03 shows only minor changes. Imports are increased 10,000 bales while exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are unchanged at 6.2 million bales.

World Cotton Outlook

The 2001/2002 world estimates reflect minor changes for several countries based on revised trade data. Beginning stocks are down 10,000 bales and ending stocks are decreased 161,000 bales.

The 2002/03 forecast includes increased production and use and decreased trade compared with last month. Production is increased by 345,000 primarily due to a 600,000-bale increase for China and a 100,000-bale increase for Brazil. These and other smaller increases are partially offset by a 200,000-bale decrease in Pakistan, a 125,000-bale decrease in Zimbabwe, and other smaller decreases. Forecasted world use is increased by 301,000 bales, including a 500,000-bale increase in China and a 100,000-bale increase in Mexico which more than offset a 200,000-bale decrease in Brazil and changes in other countries. Imports are decreased 135,000 bales as 100,000-bale increases in Pakistan and Mexico did not offset a 250,000-bale decrease in Brazil and smaller decreases elsewhere. Forecast exports are down 25,000 bales from last month, with 100,000-bale decreases in Zimbabwe and Cote d'Ivoire offset by a 200,000-bale increase in Brazil. World ending stocks are decreased by 287,000 bales.

Cotton Prices

The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In February, the index averaged 58.25 cents per pound, up 1.54 cents from January's average. In New York, the nearby March futures contract settlement price fell 3.37 cents between the end of January and the end of February, closing at 48.99 cents per pound on February 28.

U.S. Cotton Highlights

COTTON CONSUMPTION: The seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in January 2003 was 28,162 (480-lb.) bales, down from 29,881 in December. A total of 689,823 bales were consumed during the five weeks of January, compared with 619,458 during the five weeks of December. The seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of January was 7.350 million bales, down from 7.799 million in December. Active spindles in January totaled 2.65 million, down from 2.84 million the same month last year. The share of active spindles dedicated to 100-percent cotton was 57 percent, same as in January 2002. Cotton's share of total fibers consumed on the spindle system by weight in January was 80.7 percent, down from 83.3 percent in December.

TEXTILE MILL REPORT: Domestic mills purchased light volumes of 2002-crop cotton during February for April-October delivery. Most mills have reportedly covered anticipated needs through the third quarter of 2003. Some Memphis/Eastern cotton was switched to Texas cotton due to quality requirements. The recent rise in cotton prices has not been mirrored in the yarn market. While landed mill prices for cotton are up 33 percent from the same time last year, cotton yarn prices are only about 5 percent higher than at the same time last year.

COTTON STOCKS: Stocks are moving from warehouses to mills. U.S. cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of January were 454,092 (480-lb.) bales, up from 446,902 in December. Stocks held in public storage and compresses in January totaled 15.12 million bales, down from 15.82 million in December. 

U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $219 million or 946 thousand bales in December, according to Census data, up from $136 million or 625 thousand bales in November. China was by far the largest destination in December, accounting for $63 million or 299 thousand bales. In Calendar Year 2002 U.S. cotton exports totaled $2.0 billion, down slightly from $2.2 billion in CY 2001.

U.S. COTTON IMPORTS in Calendar Year 2002 totaled $20 million, $18.6 million of which was from Egypt. According to Census Bureau data, a pound of cotton imported into the United States in 2002 had a dollar value, on average, that was more than twice that of exported U.S. cotton. The reason is that imports are mainly Extra-Long Staple varieties, which command a higher price. In December, cotton imports rose to $2.8 million (6,793 bales) from $1.0 million (2,719) in November. Egypt accounted for almost all imports in both months.

Return to table of contents 

Last modified: Sunday, March 17, 2013