|World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook|
|Marketing Years 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2002/03|
|1,000 480-Lb. Bales|
|2000/01||2001/02||2002/03||% Change||2000/01||2001/02||2002/03||% Change|
|2001/02 - 2002/03||2001/02 - 2002/03|
U.S. Cotton Outlook
The U.S. forecasts for 2002/2003 are unchanged.
This month’s 2001/02 U.S. projections include marginally higher imports.
World Cotton Outlook
The initial 2002/03 forecast has slightly higher beginning and ending stocks, while production, consumption and trade are unchanged
The world 2001/02 situation this month includes higher production and ending stocks and lower consumption, beginning stocks, and trade. Beginning stocks are lowered 321,000 bales. Production is increased by 209,000 bales, due mainly to increases of 100,000 bales in Australia and Pakistan and 68,000 bales in India, which were partially offset by several smaller decreases. Consumption is down 130,000 bales as increases in Russia (100,000) and Pakistan (50,000) are more than offset by decreases in Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Hong Kong, and other small decreases. As a result, ending stocks are decreased by 100,000 bales.
COTLOOK A INDEX: The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of cotton for delivery to Northern European ports. In May, the index averaged 39.93 cents per pound, down 2.11 cents from the previous month. The Syrian quote was the lowest in the index during the four-week period, averaging 39.06 cents per pound. The Memphis quote averaged 42.32 cents per pound.
FUTURES PRICES: Nearby futures prices averaged 35.75 cents per pound in May, up only .43 cents from last month, but reversing last month's downward slide.
U.S. Cotton Highlights
COTTON CONSUMPTION: The seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in April 2002 was 29,397 (480-lb.) bales, down from 29,878 in March. A total of 611,000 bales were consumed during the four weeks of April, compared with 786,296 during the five weeks of March. The seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of April was 7.67 million bales, down from 7.8 million in March.
TEXTILE MILL REPORT: Domestic mill buyers purchased a light volume of 2001-crop cotton for summer delivery. Demand was best for low white or light spotted cotton with 34 and shorter staple and high mike and high white grades with 34 and longer staple and higher strength. Interest in 2002-crop cotton was good. Export sales continued strong. Demand for ring-spun yarn was light to moderate, and demand for open-end yarn was moderate to good. Consumption of raw cotton was steady. Some mills operated at close to full production, a six to seven day workweek. Other mills continued operating on a five to six day workweek.
COTTON STOCKS: U.S. cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of April were 375,554 bales (480-lb), up from 353,296 in March. Stocks held in public storage and compresses in April totaled 10.7 million bales, down from 12.2 million in March. Active spindles in April totaled 2.79 million, of which 1.6 million were dedicated to 100-percent cotton, compared with 3.59 million for the same time last year, with 2.0 million dedicated to 100-percent cotton. Cotton's share on the cotton spindle system in April was 80.7 percent.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS in March 2002 totaled 1.03 million (480-lb) bales, down from 1.1 million bales in February 2002. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Turkey and Mexico were the major destinations in March, accounting for 374,397 bales combined. Indonesia and Thailand were other important destinations in March.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS in March 2002 totaled 8,979 (480-lb) bales, up from 5,621 bales in February. The majority of the imports, 8,931 bales, came from Egypt.
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