|World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook|
|Marketing Years 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2002/03|
|1,000 480-Lb. Bales|
2001/02 - 2002/03
2001/02 - 2002/03
U.S. Cotton Outlook
The first U.S. estimates for 2002/2003 reflect lower production, higher consumption and exports and a large decrease in ending stocks. Production is projected down 12 percent at 17.8 million bales, based on USDA’s Prospective Plantings and average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is projected at 7.8 million bales, up just over 2.5 percent from 2001/02 as growth in retail demand more than offsets competition from textile imports. U.S. cotton exports are projected at 11.0 million bales, unchanged from 2001/02. Exports are expected to benefit from strong foreign import demand and large exportable supplies in the United States. Stocks are expected to decrease 13 percent (1.0 million bales) to 6.7 million bales, or 36 percent of total use.
This month’s 2001/02 U.S. projections include higher domestic use and exports, resulting in lower ending stocks. Production is reduced just 2,000 bales, to remain at 20.3 million, based on USDA’s final Crop Production report. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales as the upward trend in mill use continues due to improved economic conditions. Exports are increased 500,000 bales to 11.0 million, as export sales and shipments remain strong. Projected ending stocks are lowered 600,000 bales to 7.7 million bales.
World Cotton Outlook
The initial 2002/03 forecast is described on the cover.
The world 2001/02 situation includes higher production, consumption, stocks, and trade this month. Historical changes for Brazil accounted for most of the stock and production changes. Other changes include; production increases of 100,000 bales for Australia and 200,000 bales for Pakistan, consumption increases of 100,000 bales each for Mexico and the United States, 250,000 bales for China and 150,000 bales for Turkey. The world export forecast is increased 406,000 bales as increases in the U.S. and Australia are partially offset by several smaller decreases. World stocks are increased 378,000 bales this month, to 44.8 million bales. Bahrain and Mauritius have been added to the database of countries. See Supplement A for historical data for Bahrain and Mauritius.
Note: For more information on historical revisions for Brazil, see Supplement B for a complete description.
Cotlook A Index: The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of cotton for delivery to Northern European ports. In April, the index averaged 41.38 cents per pound, down 0.66 cents from the previous month. The West African quote was the lowest in the index, averaging 40.73 cents per pound for the month of April. The Memphis quote averaged 44.25 cents per pound.
Futures Prices: The May 2002 contract averaged 36.18 cents per pound in April, down 1.93 cents from last month.
U.S. Cotton Highlights
Cotton Consumption: The seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in March 2002 was 29,317 (480-lb.) bales, up from 29,264 in February. A total of 768,408 bales were consumed during the five weeks of March, compared with 602,165 during the four weeks of February. The seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of March was 7.7 million bales, up from 7.6 million in February.
Textile mill report: Domestic mills purchased a light volume of current crop cotton for summer delivery. A moderate volume of 2002/2003 cotton was also booked.
Cotton Stocks: U.S. cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of March were 351,679 bales (480-lb), down from 354,127 in February. Stocks held in public storage and compresses in March totaled 12.2 million bales, down from 13.9 million in February. Active spindles in March totaled 2.78 million, of which 1.64 million were dedicated to 100-percent cotton, compared with 3.67 million for the same time last year, with 2.00 million dedicated to 100-percent cotton. Cotton's share on the spindle system in March was 82 percent.
According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. cotton exports in February 2002 totaled 1,103,233 (480-lb.) bales, up from 986,505 bales in January. Turkey accounted for over 20 percent of February exports. Indonesia, Mexico, and Taiwan were other important destinations in February.
U.S. cotton imports in February 2002 came entirely from Egypt and totaled about 5,600 bales, up 4,000 bales from the previous month.
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