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This month’s 2001/02 U.S. projections include higher production, domestic use and exports, resulting in lower ending stocks. Production is raised 221,000 bales, to 20.3 million, based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginning report. Domestic mill use is raised 200,000 bales based recent turnaround in mill use reflecting improved economic conditions. Exports are increased 200,000 bales to 10.5 million, as export sales remain strong and exports are boosted by the reestablishment of Step-2 payments. Imports are increased to 25,000 bales. Projected ending stocks are lowered 200,000 bales to 8.3 million bales.
The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 are unchanged.
The world 2001/02 situation includes higher
production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and lower trade this
month. World production is raised
401,000 bales. Production increases
of 100,000 bales for Benin, Brazil and Uzbekistan and a smaller increase for
Kazakhstan are partially offset by reductions for Paraguay, Cote d’Ivoire and
Zimbabwe. World consumption is
702,000 bales higher at 92.7 million bales, due to increases of 200,000 bale for
the U.S. and Pakistan, 100,000 bale increases for Turkey and Thailand and
smaller increases for several other countries.
Imports are forecast down from last month by 335,000 bales.
Imports for Brazil are 650,000 bales lower 200,000 bales lower for India.
Imports are increased for Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey and Thailand by
100,000 bales. The world export
forecast is decreased 235,000 bales as increases in the U.S. and Brazil are more
than offset by decreases in China Australia, Egypt, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and
others. World stocks are increased
464,000 bales this month, to 44.4 million bales.
The world estimates for 2000/01 show higher beginning stocks and higher ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks are due to historical revisions for Brazil.
Cotlook A Index:
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average
of the five lowest quotes of cotton for delivery to Northern European ports. In March, the index averaged 42.04 cents per pound, down 0.83
cents from the previous month. The
African Franc-Zone quote was the lowest in the index during the four-week
period, averaging 41.26 cents per pound. The Memphis quote averaged 45.68 cents
per pound.
Futures Prices: May 2002 futures prices averaged 38.11 cents per pound in March, up 2.05 cents from last month.
Cotton
Consumption: The
seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in February 2002 was
29,039 (480-lb.) bales, up from 28,344 in January.
A total of 602,352 bales were consumed during the four weeks of February,
compared with 559,873 during the four weeks of January.
The seasonally adjusted anualized consumption rate for the month of
February was 7.6 million bales, up from 7.4 million in January.
Textile mill
report: Domestic mill
purchases were light in March. Most
mills have covered their anticipated needs through July 2002, and need only a
limited amount of fill in cotton for August through October 2002. Increased
demand in denim led to an improvement in demand for open-end yarn. Some mills
intend to operate a full production schedule with no scheduled time off during
the next few months.
Cotton
Stocks: U.S.
cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of February were
351,338 bales (480-lb), up from 339,075 in January.
Stocks held in public storage and compresses in February totaled 13.9
million bales, down from 15.4 million in January.
Active spindles in February totaled 2.80 million, of which 1.62 million
were dedicated to 100-percent cotton, compared with 3.76 million for the same
time last year, with 2.03 million dedicated to 100-percent cotton. Cotton=s share on the cotton spindle system in
February was 81.3 percent.
U.S.
cotton exports in January 2002 totaled 986,500 (480‑lb.) bales, up from 924,440 bales in
December 2001, and almost double (422,700 bales higher) total cotton exports in
January 2001. According to the U.S.
Bureau of the Census, Pakistan and Turkey were the largest destinations in
January, accounting for over 142,000 bales each. Thailand, Indonesia and Mexico
were other important destinations in January.
U.S.
cotton imports in January 2002 came mainly from Egypt and totaled about 1,600 bales,
up 1,200 bales from the previous month.
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