U.S. Cotton Outlook
This monthís 2001/02 U.S. projections include higher exports and imports and lower ending stocks. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged from last month. Exports are increased 300,000 to 10.3 million, as export sales and shipments remain strong. Imports are increased to 15,000 bales. Projected ending stocks are lowered 300,000 bales to 8.5 million bales.
The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 are unchanged.
World Cotton Outlook
The world 2001/02 situation includes higher
production, beginning and ending stocks, consumption and trade this month.
World production is raised 290,000 bales.
Production increases of 200,000 bales for Pakistan and Greece are
partially offset by reductions for Paraguay, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
World consumption is higher, with increases for the Czech Republic,
Italy, Korea, Mexico, and Pakistan. Import
forecasts are decreased by 250,000 bales in Brazil and 50,000 bales in Pakistan
and increased in the Czech Republic, Italy, Korea, and Mexico.
The world export forecast is increased 195,000 bales as decreases in
Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Paraguay partially offset the increase in the United
States. World stocks are increased
marginally 35,000 bales this month, to 44.0 million bales.
The world estimates for 2000/01 show slightly lower beginning stocks and marginally higher ending stocks, lower exports and higher consumption. Beginning stocks are decreased 46,000 bales, due to adjustments in previous years trade for the Sudan, the Czech Republic and Iran. Imports were increased 55,000 bales, reflecting a change in Czech Republic. Consumption is up 111,000 bales, on increases in Iran and the Czech Republic. Exports are down 187,000 bales on changes in Iran and the Sudan. Ending stocks were up 90,000 bales as a result.
Cotlook A Index:
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average
of the five lowest quotes of cotton for delivery to Northern European ports. In March, quotes from Uzbekistan, African Franc-Zone,
Paraguay, Syria and Greece were included in the index.
The index averaged 42.87 cents per pound during the period, down 0.55
cents from the previous month. The
African Franc-Zone quote was the lowest in the index during the four-week
period, averaging 42.13 cents per pound.
Futures Prices: Nearby March 2002 futures prices in February averaged 34.55 cents per pound, down 2.34 cents from last month. Benchmark May 2002 averaged 36.06 cents per pound, down 20 points from last month.
U.S. Cotton Highlights
seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in January 2002 was 28,352 (480-lb.) bales, compared with Decemberís
level of 28,754. A total of 565,154
bales were consumed during the four weeks in January, compared with 583,198
during the five weeks in December. The
seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of January was 7.4
million bales, down from 7.5 million in December.
report: Domestic mill
activity continued slow. Most mills
have covered their anticipated needs through July 2002.
Some mills expressed interest in replacing high grade, high priced
California cotton with high grade, relatively lower priced Mid-South and/or
Southeastern cotton. Other mills
bought light volumes of lower grades (colors 42 and 53) for denim production.
A slight improvement in demand for sales yarns was reported, as was some
renewed interest in knitted products. Demand
for woven products remained depressed.
cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of January were
340,198 bales (480-lb), down from 347,477 in December.
Stocks held in public storage and compresses in January totaled 15.3
million bales, down from 16.3 million in December.
Active spindles in January totaled 2.84 million, of which 1.62 million
were dedicated to 100 percent cotton, compared with 3.93 million for the same
time last year, with 2.1 million dedicated to 100 percent cotton.
share on the cotton spindle system in January was 81.3 percent.
cotton exports in December 2001 totaled 924,000 (480‑lb.) bales, up from 743,000 bales in
November 2001, and 400,000 bales above December 2000.
According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the leading markets in
December were India, Mexico, Thailand, Pakistan, Turkey, and Taiwan.
U.S. cotton imports in December 2001 came from Egypt and totaled about 400 bales, up 200 bales from the previous month.
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