U.S. Cotton Outlook
This monthís 2001/02 U.S. projections include a sharp decline in domestic mill use, higher exports, and ending stocks. Production is unchanged from last month. Domestic mill use is reduced 400,000 bales to 7.4 million bales. Bureau of Census and Step-2 data indicate that mill use in the first half of the marketing year is down 20 percent from a year earlier. Exports are increased 200,000 to 10.0 million, as export sales and shipments strengthen. Projected ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 8.8 million bales.
The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 are unchanged.
World Cotton Outlook
The world 2001/02 situation includes higher
production, beginning and ending stocks, and lower consumption this month.
World production is raised 195,000 bales.
Increases of 200,000 bales for Pakistan, 75,000 bales in Iran, and 50,000
bales in Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Zimbabwe are partially offset by reductions for
Turkey and South Africa. World
consumption is marginally lower, as increases for China, Korea, Russia, and
Turkey are more than offset by decreases for the United States, and the EU.
World stocks are reduced 150,000 bales this month, to 43.9 million bales.
The world estimates for 2000/01 show higher beginning and ending stocks, and lower imports and consumption. Beginning stocks are increased 98,000 bales, mostly due to adjustments in previous years trade for several European Union (EU) countries. Imports were decreased 418,000 bales, again primarily due to adjustments in the EU (down 133,000) and lower estimates for Brazil (down 147,000) and Mexico (down 85,000). Consumption is down 93,000 bales, with increases in India and Korea partially offsetting a decrease in the EU. Ending stocks were down 291,000 bales as a result.
Cotlook A Index:
The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average
of the five lowest quotes of cotton for delivery to Northern European ports. In January, quotes from Syria, Uzbekistan, Greece, African
Franc-Zone, and Brazil were included in the index. The index averaged 43.42 cents per pound during the period,
up 0.55 cents from the previous month. The
Syrian quote was the lowest in the index during the four-week period, averaging
43.18 cents per pound.
U.S. Cotton Highlights
seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in December 2001 was
28,751 (480-lb.) bales, compared with Novemberís level of 28,219. A total of 581,377 bales were consumed during the five weeks
in December, compared with 539,944 during the four weeks in November.
The seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of
December was 7.5 million bales, up from 7.36 million in November.
report: Domestic mill activity remained
slow to inactive. Exports remained somewhat active. Demand was best for color 41
and better, leaf 4 and better, staple 34 and longer, mike 35-47 and strength 27.
A few mills continued to delay some late January deliveries of raw
cotton. Most mills have covered
their anticipated needs through May 2002. Some mills continued to purchase yarn
and/or greige goods in efforts to lower production cost.
Demand for ring-spun yarn was light to moderate, while demand for
open-end yarn was light. Mills
continued to vary work schedules in order to control inventory.
cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of December were
349,756 bales (480-lb), up from 334,996 in November.
Stocks held in public storage and compresses in December totaled 16.29
million bales, up from 14.71 million in November.
Active spindles in December totaled 3.1 million, of which 1.73 million
were dedicated to 100 percent cotton, compared with 4.0 million for the same
time last year, with 2.14 million dedicated to 100 percent cotton.
share on the cotton spindle system in December was 80.5 percent.
cotton exports in November 2001 totaled 743,000 (480‑lb.) bales, up from 648,000 bales in
October and well above the 430,000 reported in November 2000. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the leading
markets in November were India, Mexico, Korea, Turkey, and Indonesia.
U.S. cotton imports in November 2001 came from Egypt and totaled about 200 bales.
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