Cotton: World Markets and Trade (Jan. 2002)

January 2002 Edition:

Argentine Devaluation Possible Key to Long Term Recovery

Bar graph showing trends in Argentine cotton market (production and use) compared to Brazil's cotton market and the value of the monetary systems

On January 6th, Argentina devalued its currency 28.6 percent. Because most debts in Argentina, including mortgages and corporate loans, are denominated in dollars, the devaluation may cause liquidity problems for many farms and mills, hurting cotton production and consumption in the short-run. Accordingly, forecasted production for MY 2001/02 has been revised downward this month to 330,000 bales from 450,000 bales in December. Consumption is expected to be 250,000 bales in MY 2001/02, down from the December forecast of 300,000 bales. Last year, Argentina produced 735,000 bales and consumed 350,000.

However, to the extent that an overvalued currency has severely weakened the competitiveness of Argentine cotton in the past few years (particularly with respect to its primary trading partner and competitor, Brazil) the devaluation could contribute to a long-run recovery of Argentina’s cotton sector. As recently as 1996/97, Argentina was the world’s tenth largest producer, with a crop larger than Brazil’s. Since that time, Brazil’s floating currency depreciated some 60 percent against the Argentine peso; Argentina’s production fell over 80 percent and Brazil’s rose over 80 percent. Just as Brazil’s production surged following the dramatic depreciation of the Real in 1999, the decline of Argentina’s cotton production may be reversed over the next few years.

Download the entire circular.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf) or downloaded as Lotus 1-2-3 ® spreadsheets (.wk3).

Tables

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1995/96-2001/2002 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1995/96-2001/2002 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 3: FY 99 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}
Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2000/2001-2001/2002 {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2001/2002 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2001/2002 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2000/2001 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2000/2001 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}
Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2001/2002 {.pdf, .wk3}

	Most statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat and Lotus version 3 format. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.
Download the trade tables in Lotus 123 version 3 format. Please note that some versions of Netscape Navigator will change the filename extension; if this happens, you MUST rename the file to .wk3 to access it.

Last modified: Sunday, March 17, 2013