U.S. Cotton Outlook
This months 2001/02 U.S.
projections indicate reduced domestic mill use and higher
production. Production is raised slightly, up 20,000 bales from
last month. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales to 7.7
million bales, reflecting lower rates of mill use reported by the
Census Bureau for October and November. Projected ending stocks
are raised 200,000 bales to 8.6 million bales.
The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 are unchanged.
World Cotton Outlook
The world 2001/02 situation
includes higher production and ending stocks this month. World
production is raised 675,000 bales, including an increase of
900,000 bales for China, based on numerous reports, including
provincial estimates, that indicate production is larger than
previously anticipated. Higher production for China and Egypt is
partially offset by a reduction for Pakistan. World consumption
is marginally higher, as increases for China and Turkey are
partially offset by decreases for the United States, India, and
Mexico. World stocks are raised 1.3 percent this month, to 44.1
The world estimates for 2000/01 has only minor changes for Turkey and Indonesia.
Cotlook A Index: The A-Index, a principal
measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five
lowest quotes ofcotton for delivery to Northern European ports.
In December, quotes from Syria, Uzbekistan, Greece, African
Franc-Zone,and Brazil were included in the index. The index
averaged 42.87 cents per pound during the period, a 4.83-cent
increase from the previous month. The Syrian quote was the lowest
in the index during the four-week period, averaging 42.63 cents
Futures Prices: Nearby March 2002 futures prices in December averaged 36.61 cents per pound, up 3.06 cents from last
month. Benchmark May 2002 averaged 38.03 cents per pound
U.S. Cotton Highlights
Cotton Consumption: The seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S.
cotton consumption in November was 28,057 (480-lb.) bales,
compared with Octobers level of 28,927. A total of 540,440
bales were consumed during the four weeks in November, compared
with 622,338 during the same period in October. The seasonally
adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of November
was 7.32 million bales, down from 7.55 million in October.
Textile mill report: Domestic mills purchased a very light volume of cotton for February 2002 through July 2002 delivery. Mill buyers and merchants continued to negotiate terms to accept deliveries with a slightly higher mike average. Some mills continued to bring in yarn and/or greige goods in efforts to lower production cost. This resulted in an increase of inventories of raw cotton at the mills, which delayed additional deliveries. Demand for ring-spun yarn was light, while demand in open-end yarn was moderate. Some yarn mills indicated that they would take less time off around the holidays than previously expected. Weak retail sales in the home fashion segment continued to cause inventories to build resulting in longer downtime during the holidays.
Cotton Stocks: U.S. cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of November were 335,792 bales (480-lb), down from 353,956 in October. Stocks held in public storage and compresses in November totaled 14.7 million bales, up from 9.6 million in October. Active spindles in November totaled 3.2 million, of which 1.8 million were dedicated to 100 percent cotton, compared with 4.2 million for the same time last year, with 2.3 million dedicated to 100 percent cotton. Cotton's share on the cotton spindle system in November was 81 percent.
U.S. cotton exports in October 2001 totaled 378,000 (480-lb.) bales, down 307,000 bales from the previous month, but up 270,000 bales from the same time last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The leading markets in October were India, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia and Thailand.
U.S. cotton imports in October 2001 of 400 bales were primarily from Egypt. There were no imports last month.
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