U.S. Cotton Outlook
This months 2001/02 U.S. projections include higher production and exports and lower consumption and ending stocks. The production forecast is up marginally to 20.2 million bales due to good weather conditions. Domestic mill use is down 200,000 bales based on weaker economic expectations. Exports are now forecast at 9.4 million bales, equal to the post-World War II record of 9.4 million bales set in 1994/95.
The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 are unchanged.
World Cotton Outlook
The revised 2001/02 global cotton situation reflects lower consumption and higher production, resulting in a 1 million-bale increase in ending stocks. Production is increased 798,000 bales with gains in Kazakhstan and Egypt (100,000 bales each), United States (103,000), Turkey (150,000) China (500,000), and in several African countries but is somewhat offset by a reduction for India (300,000). Consumption reductions of 100,000 to 200,000 for India, Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the United States are somewhat offset by an increase for China (250,000). Foreign exports are decreased 350,00 bales offsetting the 400,000-bale increase for the United States.
For 2000/01, only minor changes were seen. Consumption was up 85,000 bales, with an increase in India partially offset by a decrease in Indonesia. Beginning stocks and production increased slightly, while imports were down slightly. As a result, ending stocks were down 75,000 bales.
Cotlook A Index: The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of cotton for delivery to Northern European ports. In October, quotes from Syria, Uzbekistan, Greece, African Franc-Zone, and Spain were included in the index. The index averaged 37.22 cents per pound during the period, a 4.04-cent decrease from the previous month. The Greek quote was the lowest in the index during the four-week period, averaging 36.03 cents per pound.
Futures Prices: Nearby 2001 futures prices in October averaged 31.15 cents per pound, down 4.31 cents per pound from September. The December 2001 contract averaged 31.52 cents per pound, a decrease of 5.38 cents from the previous month.
U.S. Cotton Highlights
Cotton Consumption: The seasonally adjusted daily rate of U.S. cotton consumption in September was 30,142 (480-lb.) bales, compared with Augusts level of 30,415. A total of 780,683 bales were consumed during the five weeks in September, compared with 639,327 in the four weeks of August. The seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate for the month of September was 7.87 million bales, down from 7.93 million in August.
Textile mill report: Domestic mills purchased a light to moderate volume of cotton for delivery in November 2001 to September 2002. Demand was good for color 52, leaf 5, staple 32, mike 50-53, strength 25 and color 42, leaf 4, staple 36, mike 35-49, strength 28. Demand was moderate for color 31, leaf 3, staple 36, mike 37-42 and strength 28. A few mills began switching to 2001-crop cotton. Other mills plan to continue accepting 2000-crop cotton through December. Some mills continued to buy yarn instead of spinning it due to low yarn prices. Interest in ring-spun yarn was good, while interest in open-end yarn was moderate. Demand for fine count yarns was good and coarse count yarns was moderate. Sales of domestic denim fabrics, greige cloth, sales yarn, upholstery, print cloth and industrial fabric were moderate; mill sales of specialty yarns were very light. Most mills continued to run various production schedules to control inventory.
Cotton Stocks: U.S. cotton stocks on hand in consuming establishments at the end of September were 378,213 bales (480-lb), down from 377,815 in August. Stocks held in public storage and compresses in September totaled 4.5 million bales, down from 4.7 million in August. Active spindles in September totaled 3.3 million, of which 1.91 million were dedicated to 100 percent cotton, compared with 4.4 million for the same time last year, with 2.4 million dedicated to 100 percent cotton. Cotton's share on the cotton spindle system was 80.9 percent.
U.S. cotton exports in August 2001 totaled 947,000 (480-lb.) bales, up 247,000 bales from the previous month, and 517,000 bales from the same time last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The leading markets in August were Mexico, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Taiwan and South Korea.
U.S. cotton imports in August 2001 were 300 bales, down 100 bales from last month and 1,100 below the same time last year. The only suppliers were Egypt and India.
WORLD COTTON STATISTICS
Special Supplement to the November 2001 Edition of Cotton: World Markets and Trade (MY 1992/93- 2001/2002)
This supplement presents the Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) database for world cotton area, yield, production, trade, and utilization for the marketing year 1992/93 through 2001/2002. The information in this supplement presents statistical totals for each individual country.
The database contains 119 countries. U.S. agricultural counselors and attachés report regularly on 37 of the major cotton producing and/or consuming countries. Official statistics, trade journals, U.S. embassy reports, and data compiled by various international agencies serve as the primary basis for data covering the remaining countries. The statistics presented here are current as of November 13, 2001. Data in this section for marketing year 2001/2002 should be regarded as a forecast. All data is subject to revision. Marketing years refer to an August-July time frame. For example, MY 1996/97 begins August 1, 1996 and ends July 31, 1997. All bales are 480-pounds net weight.