August 2000

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Brazil: Corn Production Estimate Lowered Due to Frost in Parana

Brazil’s 1999/2000 total corn production is estimated at 33.0 million tons, down nearly 1 percent from last month, but 2 percent above last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but 2 percent above last year. Two crops of corn are cultivated: the first crop (planted October-December and harvested February-June), and the second, or Safrinha crop (planted January-February and harvested: June-September). The first-crop accounts for 80-85 percent of total corn production and the Safrinha accounts for the rest. The key first-crop producing states include Parana (22%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Minas Gerais (14%), Santa Catarina (11%), Sao Paulo (10%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (3%), and Mato Grosso (3%). Important Safrinha producing states include: Parana (37%), Sao Paulo (20%), Mato Grosso (15%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13%), and Goias (12%). The first crop experienced drought during the early part of the 1999/2000 growing season but managed to recover with minimal damage. A series of freezes associated with cold fronts from Argentina impacted winter crops in the southern state of Parana during mid-July. Preliminary indications of the impact of the freeze on Safrinha crop production is estimated to be around 500,000 tons.

Canada: Wheat Estimate Climbs as Corn Estimate Falls

Canada wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 26.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month but down 0.4 million tons from last year. Area is estimated at 11.0 million hectares, up 6 percent from last year. An increase in durum is expected to offset a decrease in spring wheat. Rainfall has been adequate in the wheat growing regions of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and most of Alberta, and yields are expected to be above average. Southern Alberta, however, is very dry and yields are expected to be below normal. Planting began several weeks ahead of normal this past spring because of mild temperatures, but below-normal temperatures in the late spring and early summer slowed wheat development. Above-normal prairie temperatures in recent weeks have allowed the crop to progress rapidly and harvest should start in mid-August. Corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last year’s record crop of 9.1 million. Estimate area has dropped from 1.2 million hectares last month to 1.1 million this month. Producers in Ontario and Quebec, where most of the corn is grown, responded to higher demand from the livestock industry and intended to plant a record area of 1.3 million hectares this past spring. However, torrential rains kept farmers from completing their fieldwork: the main corn growing region received nearly twice the normal rainfall between March 30 and June 30. Producers were forced to switch to soybeans or leave fields fallow. Continuing heavy rains during July has damaged many fields and encouraged disease.

EU15: Wheat and Rapeseed Estimates Fall Due to Poor Weather

The European Union (EU15) is forecast to produce 104.9 million tons of wheat in 2000/01, down 2.1 million tons from last month but up 8 percent from last year. Wheat area is forecast at 17.9 million hectares, up 5 percent from last year. Rapeseed production for 2000/01 is estimated at 9.4 million tons, down 0.6 million or 6 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year. Rapeseed area is estimated at 3.2 million hectares, level with last month but down 12 percent from last year. This season, producers planted grains at the expense of oilseeds. Area sown to oilseeds was down throughout the European Union due to low world prices and reduced oilseed payment under the EU-15 Agenda 2000 Reforms. Wheat yields are expected to be up over last year because of higher planting in several large, high-yielding EU countries. However, hot and dry conditions in Germany during June and excessive rains during July in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany which delayed the harvest have reduced wheat and rapeseed yield forecasts.

Central Asia: Cotton Threatened by Long-term Drought

Uzbekistan lint production for 2000/01 is estimated at 4.9 million bales, down 0.2 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 8 percent from last year. Turkmenistan output is estimated at 1.0 million bales, down 0.2 million or 17 percent from last month and down 0.1 million or 10 percent from last year. Winter precipitation in the Tien Shan mountains -- the main source of irrigation water for the region -- has been below normal for four of the past five years. This reportedly has resulted in a shortage of water in some cotton regions. Reports indicate that roughly 30 percent of the cotton area in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan has been affected by restricted irrigation this year. The impact of the drought has been compounded by outdated and inefficient irrigation systems.

China: Drought Affects Corn and Soybeans

China corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 115.0 million tons, down 7 million from last month and down 13 million or 10 percent from last year’s bumper crop. Area is estimated at 24.5 million hectares, down 1.4 million from a year ago, as farmers responded to low market and procurement prices by reducing planted area. The largest area reductions were in the Northeast and the North China Plain, which together account for about 60 percent of China’s total corn area. These losses were partially offset by increased area in southern and central China, where corn was planted as an alternative to early rice and wheat. The crop was seriously affected by drought in several key production provinces this summer, although recent widespread rainfall has improved yield prospects. The estimated yield of 4.69 tons/hectare is down 5 percent from last year and the lowest since the drought-impacted crop of 1997/98.

China’s 2000/01 soybean crop is estimated at 15.0 million tons, down 0.8 million or 5 percent from last month, but up 5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.3 million hectares, up more than 13 percent from 1999/00 due to higher prices, strong domestic demand for soybean products, and local government policies that encouraged soybean production. In the main soybean-growing region of the Northeast, at least 500,000 hectares were reportedly switched from corn to soybeans this year. Summer drought in the Northeast (45 percent of total soybean area) and parts of the North China Plain (20 - 25 percent) had a serious impact on yield. Estimated yield for the 2000/01 crop is 1.61 tons/hectare, down 8 percent from last year and well below the 5-year average.

Ukraine: Wheat and Barley Yield Prospects Reduced by Wet Weather

Wheat production in Ukraine for 2000/01 is estimated at 11.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month, and down 2.0 million or 15 percent from last year. Barley production estimates for 2000/01 increased from 5.5 million tons last month to 6.0 million tons, based on final sown-area statistics released by the State Statistical Committee. The month-to-month barley increase was the result of a 20-percent increase in estimated area to 4.0 million hectares. Yield estimates for both wheat and barley fell from last month because of persistently wet weather during July, which has damaged crops and interrupted harvest operations. Compounding the dryness is continued inadequate application of fertilizers and pesticides, which also will lower yield potential.

Kazakstan: Wheat and Barley Conditions Remain Favorable

Wheat production in Kazakstan for 2000/01 is estimated at 8.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 14 percent from last month, but down 3.2 million or 29 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Barley production is estimated at 2.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month, but down 0.3 million from last year. Area is estimated at 1.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.1 million or 6 percent from last year. Conditions have been consistently favorable in north-central Kazakstan, the main spring-grain production zone; however, yield is not expected to match the near-record output of last year, when growing conditions were nearly ideal.

Romania: Wheat Harvest Upped in Face of Drought

Romania wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 3.8 million tons, up 0.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 1.0 million from last year. The revision is based on preliminary yield data (harvest was nearing completion in early August) and other reports which indicate that the wheat crop will be slightly better than earlier forecast. Drought has prevailed in eastern Europe since last winter, and was particularly severe in eastern and southern Romania.

Poland: Rye Production Drops on Late Frost and Drought

Poland rye production for 2000/01 is estimated at 4.1 million tons, down 0.5 million or 11 percent from last month and down 1.1 million or 21 percent from last year. The reduced yield estimate is attributed to a late spring frost followed by persistent drought. The hardest-hit growing regions are in the central and eastern provinces. Rye, traditionally cultivated on sandy and less fertile soils, suffered more from the effects of the drought than did crops planted in soils with a higher moisture-holding capacity. Rye yields are forecast to decline by 20-24 percent. Although rains have returned to the northern countries of eastern Europe, including Poland, crops have already suffered significant crop damage.

Brazil: Cotton Production up on Favorable Prices

Brazil cotton production for 2000/01 is forecast at 3.2 million bales, up 0.3 million or 10 percent from both last month and last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.8 million hectares, up 4 percent from last month, and up 11 percent from last year. Cotton production in Brazil has recently shifted from the traditional states of Parana and Sao Paulo into the states of Mato Grosso and Goias. Commercial plantations with access to credit and using increased levels of technological inputs combined with a favorable climate continue to boost yields in Mato Grosso. Favorable cotton prices fueled by increased domestic demand and reduced imports of cotton yarn and fabrics following the devaluation of the Real are contributing to the rapid area increase in states such as Mato Grosso. Relatively lower soybean prices are also encouraging some traditional soybean farmers in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana to shift area to either corn or cotton.

China: Rice Area Declines in 2000/01

China rice production for 2000/01 is estimated slightly lower this month at 136.5 million tons (milled basis) due to lower area. Total rice area is estimated at 30.3 million hectares, down 3 percent from last year. The Chinese Government announced that early rice area for 2000/01 dropped by more than 0.9 million hectares in response to lower prices and government polices designed to reduce the output of low-quality crops such as early rice and spring wheat. Late rice and single-crop rice area may also drop this year due to shifting crop patterns and drought in northern China during the planting season. The weather in the major rice-growing regions was generally favorable this summer, with adequate rainfall, warm temperatures and limited flood damage. A record yield of 4.5 tons/hectare is forecast for the 2000/01 crop.

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