The Southwest Monsoon typically retreats southeastward during September from southern Pakistan and northwest India including Gujarat and northwest Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. In 1999, rainfall was sparse as early as late-July and throughout most of September in northwest India, especially Gujarat. Soybeans, groundnuts, cotton, and to some extent rice were hurt by long-term dryness. However, a late-September and early October revival of monsoonal rain benefitted the late portion of the soybean crop in western Madhya Pradesh and cotton in Gujarat. During the week of September 19-25, locally heavy rain (50-100 millimeters) fell in Madhya Pradesh. Beneficial rain (10-50 millimeters) brought welcome drought relief to cotton and oilseeds in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. From September 26 through October 2, rainfall nationwide was the most widespread and beneficial coverage since early July. Amounts that week totaled 25 to 100 millimeters across Gujarat, giving late-developing cotton a boost but coming too late for maturing crops in the groundnut basin (Saurashtra). Showers in neighboring section of Madhya Pradesh were too late for most soybeans but benefitted the area’s cotton and improved moisture supplies for secondary cropping. Farther south, widespread, locally heavy rain (25 to 100 millimeters or more) improved prospects for late-developing summer crops and autumn-sown oilseeds and grains.

During September, wheat in Argentina normally advances from the vegetative to the heading and reproductive stages, while planting of corn, sunflowerseed and cotton begins. For September 1999, rainfall amounts were favorable across the major wheat areas, while clear weather favored planting. During the weeks of September 5-11, 12-18, and September 26 through October 5, rain fell in Buenos Aires Province, benefitting wheat. From September 19 through October 5, Cordoba and southern Santa Fe provinces received rainfall that benefitted wheat and provided moisture for summer crop planting. During the week of September 26 through October 2, unseasonably cold and dry weather prevailed in the southern wheat area of Buenos Aires. Extreme minimum temperatures as low as -1 degree C, probably caused some burn back of young vegetative wheat. However, due to the short duration only light damage is expected.

During August 1999, near- to above-normal rainfall was recorded over most winter crop areas, except for portions of South Australia and the northernmost crop areas of Queensland. The moisture kept semi-dormant to vegetative winter crops well watered. During September, the same pattern continued, with the heaviest rains falling in New South Wales and eastern Victoria. Growing areas of South Australia and Queensland tended to be drier. Mid-September rainfall maintained favorable conditions for vegetative to reproductive winter grains and oilseeds in New South Wales and Victoria. Mild and mostly dry weather in Queensland favored winter grains maturation and early harvesting. During late September and the first week of October, showers swept across the east, benefitting winter crops advancing through reproductive phases of development. The heaviest rain fell across the winter grain and oilseed areas of New South Wales, improving yield prospects and increasing reservoir levels. In eastern Queensland, rainfall did not reach the major winter grains areas, allowing harvesting to progress. However, beneficial rain covered the region’s main western cotton and sorghum areas and spread westward through important grazing areas. During that time in South Australia and the western two-thirds of

Victoria, light showers stabilized growing conditions, but failed to improve the long-term moisture outlook. In South Australia’s western growing areas, a brief period of heat stress added pressure to crops already hurt by low available moisture, and also hastened crop maturation. In western Australia, light showers and seasonably mild temperatures covered most winter grains areas. However, unusually high temperatures on the eastern fringe of the growing area raised crop moisture demands.

Mexico total grain production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 29.3 million tons, up 1.2 million tons or 4 percent from last year and slightly below the 1996/97 level of 29.9 million. Harvested area is estimated at 11.3 million hectares, up 1.2 million hectares or 4 percent from 1998/99 and is also at the second highest level on record. Grains are grown year-round in Mexico with over 65 percent of the national total produced in the summer months (April-September). Corn and sorghum account for the vast majority of Mexico’s summer total, and the Bajio (the central plateau region of south Mexico including states Jalisco, Guanajuarto, and Michoacan) is the primary contributing region.

Weather Events: The relative absence of rainfall from November 1998 to June 1999 had profound impact upon the entire Mexican society with agricultural interests among the primary sectors suffering losses. The Government of Mexico (GOM) declared 10 northern Mexico states (Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas) to be disaster zones (May 27, 1999), as all segments of agriculture in these regions were negatively impacted by insufficient rainfall from November 1998 to June 1999. Reservoir levels in the region had not returned to normal levels since the 1994-96 drought, and thus could not support field preparation for irrigated areas across the northern two-thirds of the country. The arrival of the annual summer monsoon in July 1999 averted further degradation. However, the GOM declared on October 5 that the southern states Puebla, Michoacan, Jalisco, and Tabasco are disaster areas due to intense rainfall generated by a tropical depression nearly stationary in the Gulf of Mexico.

Corn: Second only to the 1993/94 crop, production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 19.0 million tons, up 1.2 million or 7 percent from last year. Area harvested is forecast at 8.2 million hectares, up 0.3 million or 4 percent from last year. The annual summer monsoon traverses Mexico in a southeast-to-northwest pattern, ensuring that the fields in the Bajio are among the first and last fields to receive its benefits. A long spring/summer growing season affords producers extraordinary flexibility in planting and harvesting. For the 1999 summer, the crops experienced very agreeable growing conditions across the region that melded into an overabundance of precipitation in late September and early October. A rapid withdrawal of the 1999 monsoon will be necessary to avert the development of diseases and pest populations that thrive in humid, wet conditions. In a normal year, the summer corn crop generates at least 85 percent of the annual total. The summer crop (mostly non-irrigated) is planted during April/August and harvested from October/February. The winter crop is mostly irrigated, planted during November/February and harvested from March/July, the main state being Sinaloa.

Sorghum: Production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 6.2 million tons, the third largest crop on record. Area harvested is forecast at 1.9 million hectares, down 0.10 million or 5 percent from 1998/99. Mexican producers frequently switch from other crops to sorghum when low moisture supplies are anticipated. Reservoir levels were below normal entering the 1998/99 winter season, a period wherein Mexico normally receives little precipitation, and reservoirs in the northern states were especially low. The sturdy sorghum stands struggled to sustain development on the available moisture causing sorghum yield potential to drop in Tamaulipas. Tamaulipas accounts for better than 75 percent of the fall/winter crop in most years (planted during January/February to non-irrigated fields and harvested from June/August). The moisture deficit lingered into spring 1999, as the annual monsoon was about a month behind its usual late May/early June arrival time frame. Although early 1999 summer plant development was inhibited, conditions rapidly improved once the annual showers began, and a bountiful 1999/2000 summer crop remains probable, barring an early frost. Nearly 70 percent of Mexico’s annual sorghum total is produced during the spring/summer cycle and is planted during May/August and harvested from October/December. The major producing states include Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, and Sinaloa, with some states irrigating more than others.

Wheat: Production is forecast at 3.1 million tons, down 0.2 tons or 5 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.8 million hectares, down 6 percent from 1998/99. Wheat is mainly a fall/winter crop (planting October /March) and the major producers are almost all irrigated (Baja California Norte, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, Sinaloa, Sonora). The fall/winter wheat crop is frequently around 90 percent of annual production. Summer production, primarily in Tlaxcala, Puebla, Mexico, Hidalgo and other central plateau states is almost exclusively rain fed. It is planted from May/August and harvested from November/February. The 1998/99 water deficiency resulted in reduced production in both 1999 wheat crop cycles, but to a lesser degree for the summer crop. The torrential cloudbursts of September and October have raised the possibility of lodging damage in the wheat stands.

Rice: Production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 0.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from last year. Harvested area is forecast at the same level as last season at 85,000 hectares. Rice is primarily a summer crop in Mexico and is planted during May/August and harvested from October/February. In a moderate deviation from past practice, the east coast states (Veracruz, Campeche, and Tabasco) have become predominately non-irrigated summer producers, while west coast states (Sinaloa, Michoacan, and Nayarit) have been predominately irrigated summer producers. Rice is also produced in Morelos with its irrigated summer rice fields residing on the east flank of the central plateau. The other states are in the southernmost third of the country, where conditions had been favorable for rice prior to the recent torrential rains.

	Area (THa)	Yield (MT/Ha)	Production (TMT)	5-Yr. Avg. (TMT)	Record (TMT)
Corn	8,200	2.32	19,000	17,688	19,141
Rice	85	3.24	275	262	498
Sorghum	1,850	4.85	6,200	5,474	6,855
Wheat	750	4.13	3,100	3,523	4,500

World production of tropical oilseeds (including copra and palm kernel) plus palm oil has expanded dramatically over the last decade, up 67 percent to 32.2 million tons forecast for 1999/2000. Attractive world prices and favorable economic situations in many countries have resulted in investment in palm oil plantations, while competition from palm oil and palm kernel has kept copra production fairly level.

Malaysia is the world’s largest producer of tropical oilseeds plus palm oil, and is forecast to produce 13.2 million tons in 1999/2000, up 4.8 million tons from 1989/90. The percentage increase of 56 percent is far less than the 135 percent increase for Indonesia which is forecast to produce 9.7 million tons in 1999/2000. Many industry analysts expect output in Indonesia to overtake that of Malaysia in 10 years or less. New investments in palm oil plantations in Indonesia were reduced dramatically by the currency crisis starting in 1997, but the currency has stabilized since then and new projects continue to be announced.

El Nino related drought in the latter half of 1997 reduced output in a number of countries where stressed trees will not recover fully until sometime in 1999/2000. A year-to-year decline of 497,000 tons of palm oil occurred in Malaysia and 385,000 tons in Indonesia in 1997/98. Palm oil output in Thailand is estimated to have declined by 70,000 tons in 1998/99, while a copra production decline of 820,000 tons in the Philippines was blamed on the drought. A modest decline of 16,000 tons in Columbian palm oil production was blamed on El nino related dryness in the face of average year-to-year increases of 25,000 tons over the last decade.

Improving economic policies in some countries in West Africa is resulting in more palm oil output there. Cameroon’s output has increased 78 percent to 160,000 tons from 1993/94 to 1998/99. Nigeria’s palm oil output for 1998/99 is estimated at 760,000 tons, up 29 percent in three years. Output is expanding due to price incentives which have fostered investment and improved management in the recently privatized state owned estates. Palm oil production in Cote d’Ivoire rose 14 percent to 325,000 tons in 1997/98 and is forecast to continue to increase due to improved efficiency in the operation of privatized companies.

Increasing consumption of fats and oils in Columbia, the world’s fourth largest producer of palm oil, is being met by local industry efforts to increase palm oil production. The increase comes as production of soybeans, cottonseed and sesame have declined in recent years. The increase has come despite high interest rates, elimination of government subsidies, and insecurity in palm oil growing regions resulting from insurgent groups.

Next door to the United States, Mexico is the world’s fourth largest producer of copra. Mexico, which is forecast to produce 203,000 tons of copra in 1999/2000, has seen little change in copra output for eight years. Meanwhile, a small palm oil industry has expanded from 2,000 tons of production to an estimated 12,000 tons.

Paul Provance, Oilseeds Chairperson
Telephone: (202) 720-0881
E-mail: provance@fas.usda.gov