September 1999

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

CHINA: CORN PRODUCTION DOWN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER

China’s 1999/2000 corn crop is reduced this month to 125.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 2 percent from last month and down 6 percent from last year’s revised crop. Area is lowered slightly to 25.1 million hectares and yield is projected down to 4.98 tons per hectare due to unfavorable weather in several corn-growing provinces during August. Southern and southwest China had excessive rainfall and cloudiness, and local flooding is reported in the lower Yangtze River valley. Dry weather continued to affect corn in parts of the North China Plain and Liaoning Province during the month. However, crop conditions were very good in Heilongjiang and Jilin, and moderate rainfall in mid-August brought drought relief to Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces in northern China. The estimate for the 1998/99 corn crop was revised upward to a record 133 million tons.

CANADA: FAVORABLE WEATHER RESURRECTS WHEAT AND RAPESEED OUTPUT

Canada's 1999/2000 wheat production is estimated at 25.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and 2 percent higher than last year. Wheat yield is forecast to match the 1996/97 record at 2.43 tons per hectare, up 7 percent from last month as favorable summer weather aided crop development and offset the delay caused by late planting. USDA’s yield estimate matches Statistics Canada, which released a crop report on August 26 with the results of the July crop yield survey. Wheat area is forecast to remain at 10.3 million hectares, the same as last month but down 5 percent from last year.

Canada's rapeseed production is estimated at 8.3 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 9 percent from last year. Crop yield is forecast at a record 1.48 tons per hectare, up 14 percent from last month because of favorable weather. Rapeseed area is forecast to remain at 5.6 million hectares, the same as last month and up 3 percent from last year. Area forecasts for all crops were dampened early in the season owing to excessive moisture, which caused planting delays that left crops in many areas of the prairies two to four weeks behind normal development. Furthermore, cool wet weather in early summer raised concerns that an early frost could damage overall production. The first freeze in the prairies usually occurs in early September. However, nearly ideal warmth and dryness in August accelerated crop development such that frost is no longer a serious threat to yields. There are still concerns about frost, but at this point a frost would not greatly reduce the quantity of the crop, but may significantly reduce crop quality.

ARGENTINA: HIGHER AREA RAISES WHEAT OUTPUT

Argentina’s 1999/2000 wheat production is estimated at 12.7 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month and up 15 percent from last season’s revised output. Harvested area is estimated at 5.5 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 12 percent from last year. As of late-August, planting was virtually complete, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The weather and planting conditions have been generally favorable to date; however, light frost in late August across central and southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa burnt back very early vegetative growth. Yield is unchanged this month at 2.34 tons per hectare and is slightly below the 1998/99 crop as less fertilizer is being used which will restrict potential yield.

MEXICO: CORN AND SORGHUM INCREASED DUE TO FAVORABLE WEATHER

Mexico’s 1999/2000 corn production is increased 0.5 million tons this month to 19.0 million based on favorable weather and an increase in area, mostly for the main season crop. Over 80 percent of the total crop is produced during the May to December season; while the second crop will be planted in the northwest during the autumn and harvested in the spring of 2000. Generally, favorable weather has supported yield this season. In addition, the 1998/99 corn crop is revised 0.3 million tons higher to 17.8 million due to an increase in area and a better than expected second crop. The 1999/2000 sorghum production is increased to 6.2 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month, but down marginally from last year’s revised estimate. About two-thirds of the total sorghum crop is produced during the main season.

EU-15: WHEAT AND COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION DROP

The EU-15 wheat production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 96.4 million tons, down slightly from last month and 7 percent below last year. Harvested area is reduced marginally from last month and down 1 percent from 1998/99 at 16.9 million hectares. This year’s growing season could not match the record yield of last season, falling from 6.05 tons per hectare to 5.69 tons. The decreased wheat production estimate in France from 38.5 million tons to 37.0 million is based on initial harvest results and is mainly responsible for the overall drop in the EU-15 wheat estimate. The decrease is partly offset by estimated yield increases in Germany causing production to rise from 19.0 million tons to 19.6 million and in United Kingdom as output climbed from 14.5 million tons to 15.0 million.

Coarse grain production decreased slightly to 101.4 million tons this month, down 0.8 million from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Overall, EU production is down as reductions in the barley and oats crops more than offset a slight increase in corn output. Barley production is estimated at 48.6 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month due mainly to a decreases in Spain and Finland; oats, 6.2 million tons, down 0.3 from last month due to a decrease in Finland; and corn, 35.8 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month.

AUSTRALIA: BARLEY AREA AND PRODUCTION FORECAST FALLS

Australian barley production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.7 million tons, down 6 percent or 0.3 million tons from last month’s estimate due to a decrease in area. The latest harvested area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, down from last month’s 2.65 million based on an August 31 crop report from Australia’s Bureau of Agricultural Resource and Economics (ABARE). This is the smallest barley area in four years with last year’s area pegged at 3.0 million hectares. A glut of domestic feed grain supplies and a poor export price outlook due to aggressive EU subsidies have resulted in less barley being planted this year. The weather over much of the grain growing regions have seen adequate rainfall amounts with exception of South Australia where dry areas continue to be a problem. Barley yield for Australia is projected to be 1.88 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last season.

UKRAINE: PRIVATE SECTOR RAISES BARLEY OUTPUT

Ukraine’s 1999/2000 barley production is estimated at 6.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up marginally from last year. The increase is based on a larger-than-expected harvest from the private sector. Between 1995 and 1998, the private sector in Ukraine was responsible for an estimated 9 to 11 percent of total grain production, roughly 3.0 to 3.5 million tons. Preliminary harvest results this season indicate that wheat and barley output from the private sector could jump by approximately 1.5 million tons due largely to high export potential. Unfavorable weather and harvest delays resulted in barley yield estimated at 1.71 tons per hectares, slightly above last year, but 17 percent below the 5-year average.

INDIA: COARSE GRAIN OUTPUT REDUCED DUE TO DRY WEATHER

India’s 1999/2000 coarse grain production estimates are lowered this month based on monsoon activity. The larger producing regions of corn, sorghum, and millet experienced an extended dry spell and is now expected to have a moderate affect on the coarse grain yields. The major growing regions in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have received only 50 to 70 percent of the normal monsoon rainfall amounts as of early September. Corn production is estimated at 10.5 million tons, down from last month’s estimate of 11.0 million; sorghum production at 9.0 million tons, down from 10.0 million; and millet production at 9.5 million tons, down from 10.3 million. The rainfall pattern during September will be a significant determinant on final production levels.

BRAZIL: RICE CROP DROPS DUE TO LOWER AREA

Brazil’s 1999/2000 rice area and production are lowered based on preliminary forecasts of planting intentions. Rice production forecast is reduced from 7.4 million tons (milled basis) to 7.2 million, down 3 percent from last month. Harvested area is forecast to fall from 4.0 million hectares to 3.8 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but up 4 percent from last season. The decrease in area this month is attributed to lack of available credit for farmers, increased production costs associated with the devaluation of the Real, and lower domestic prices for rice driven by excess production in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Rice plantings begin in October.

THAILAND: RICE PRODUCTION RISES ON REVISED STATISTICS FROM MINISTRY

Thailand’s rice production rose this month on both favorable main season rainfall and in light of new official past years’ statistics from the Thai Ministry of Agriculture. Milled rice production for 1999/2000 rose 0.7 million tons from last month to 15.4 million tons, an increase of 2 percent from last year’s revised output of 15.1 million. The increase in production is mainly due to increased area, up 0.5 million hectares to 9.8 million.

INDIA: POOR MONSOON RAINS DIMINISH PEANUT PRODUCTION

Groundnut conditions have improved slightly during the past month in Andrah Pradesh but remain poor in Gujarat. Indian peanut production for 1999/2000 is estimated lower at 6.9 million tons, down from 8.0 million tons. Area remains at 8.0 million hectares. The decrease is the result of a weak monsoon and resulting dryness in the major groundnut growing regions of Gujarat and southern Andhra Pradesh. The main Gujarat growing region of Saurashtra has received only 40 percent of normal rainfall during the current monsoon for the period up to August 25 thus creating very dry conditions in this predominantly rain fed area. The current crop is reported to be at flowering and pod formation stages and susceptible to moisture stress. Rainfall levels during September will be a significant determinant of final production levels.

GERMANY: HARVEST COMPLETED ON RECORD RAPESEED CROP

Germany’s completed rapeseed harvest shows an estimated record production of 4.0 million tons, up 14 percent from last month’s 3.5 million ton estimate and up 22 percent from last year’s 3.3 million ton harvest. Area was unchanged from last month at a record 1.2 million hectares, but increased 14 percent from last season’s 1.0 million hectares. Estimated yield this season is also a record at 3.48 million tons per hectare, up 7 percent from last year’s 3.25 yield. Yield estimates were revised upward following information released by the German Ministry of Agriculture and favorable weather during the growing season.

PAKISTAN: COTTON ESTIMATED HIGHER

Pakistan’s cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 7.2 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.9 million from last year’s weather and insect reduced crop. The increase is based largely on good growing weather and the absence of major pest problems, thus far. Weather through the end of August generally has been favorable. Except the May cyclone in the lower Sindh, which damaged or destroyed about 50,000 hectares of cotton, no other weather-related problems have been reported. Irrigation supplies are adequate and monsoon rains have been widespread and well spaced since mid-July. Rainfall has helped to control white fly populations. However, some pockets of bollworm infestations were reported. Rains have helped to keep day time temperatures around normal levels. Pesticide supplies are reported to be adequate. Weather and insect infestation levels in September and into early October will be major determinants of the final output.

UZBEKISTAN: COTTON YIELDS CUT DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER, LOCUST DAMAGE

Cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.8 million bales, down from the 5.0 million last month, but up from the 4.6 million last year. According to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor, yield potential has been reduced because of unfavorable weather and some locust damage. An estimated 0.5 million hectares were replanted due to heavy spring rains, but subsequent wetter and cooler than normal conditions retarded crop development. Local sources reported that locusts have damaged 0.2 million hectares of cotton in the southern growing region. However, the U.S. Agricultural Counselor says that the extent of locust damage is difficult to set. The government maintains that spraying and other measures have effectively reduced damage, while other observers believe that locusts have had and will continue to have a negative impact on production.

INDIA: COTTON AREA IS REDUCED DUE TO ADVERSE SEEDING CONDITIONS

Cotton production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 12.1 million 480 pound-bales. This is a reduction of 550,000 bales from last month’s 12.65 million and a 700,000 bale reduction from last year’s production of 12.8 million. The 1999/2000 area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, a drop of 300,000 hectares from lastyear due to weak monsoonal rains. Dry conditions during the planting windows in Gujarat, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh contributed to the decrease in area this season. Gujarat’s cotton areas are the most affected with most of the area drop occurring in this state as the dryness has continued during the monsoon season. In past seasons, Gujarat has contributed nearly 30 percent of India’s total cotton production. Due to the decline in area and crop stress, Gujarat is expected to contribute only 20 percent of the crop this season. The rainfed areas of the central and southern states will require a second round of monsoon rains in early September to sustain current progress. Another contributing factor to the area decrease is a slight shift from cotton to other crops in the northern states.