PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1999/2000
July 1999
WHEAT
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 575.4 | +5.3 | +1 | -2 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in both the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 63.5 | +2.5 | +4 | -9 | Production is forecast higher as a record winter wheat yield more than offset lower area. |
| Total Foreign | 509.9 | +0.8 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher as increases in China, EU-15, Kazakstan, and Australia more than offset decreases in Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Ukraine. |
| China | 112.0 | +6.0 | +6 | +2 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in yield. Favorable late season rainfall and good harvest weather boosted winter wheat prospects. |
| EU-15 | 97.6 | +1.1 | +1 | -6 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in the United Kingdom and Spain. Favorable weather boosted yield in the United Kingdom, while an upward adjustment in Spain's area increased output. |
| Kazakstan | 7.0 | +1.0 | +17 | +49 | Production is forecast higher as favorable weather to date spurred yield potential. |
| Australia | 22.5 | +0.5 | +2 | +7 | Production is forecast higher as timely rainfall in the east allowed producers to expand plantings. |
| Russia | 31.5 | -2.0 | -6 | +17 | Production is forecast lower due to hot, dry June weather that further reduced winter wheat yield prospects. |
| Turkey | 16.5 | -1.0 | -6 | -11 | Production is forecast lower as unfavorable dry weather in the Central and Southeastern crop regions reduced yield potential. |
| Iran | 8.5 | -1.0 | -11 | -29 | Production is forecast lower as severe drought throughout most of the season reduced area and yield prospects. |
| Ukraine | 14.0 | -0.5 | -3 | -6 | Production is forecast lower due to hot, dry weather that reduced winter wheat yield prospects. |
| Algeria | 2.2 | -0.3 | -12 | NC | Production is forecast lower due to preliminary harvest results that indicate a decrease in yield. |
WHEAT (CONTINUED)
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| Iraq | 0.8 | -0.2 | -20 | -38 | Production is forecast lower as severe drought throughout most of the growing season reduced area and yield potential. |
COARSE GRAINS
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 884.6 | +4.4 | +0 | +1 | Production is forecast higher as an increase in the United States more than offsets a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 268.7 | +6.3 | +2 | -1 | Production is forecast higher, largely due to increases in corn yield and sorghum area. |
| Total Foreign | 615.9 | -2.0 | -0 | +2 | Production is forecast lower as decreases in Russia, Romania, and Turkey more than offset increases in China, Canada, and EU-15. |
| Russia | 23.7 | -2.5 | -10 | +25 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in barley, oats, and rye yield as hot, dry weather reduces crop prospects. |
| Romania | 10.6 | -0.8 | -7 | +5 | Production is forecast lower as a reduction in corn output more than offsets an increase in barley. |
| Turkey | 10.0 | -0.4 | -4 | -4 | Production is forecast lower as field travel by FAS officials indicated a barley yield reduction due to dry weather in the southeast. |
| Iran | 2.3 | -0.3 | -11 | -27 | Production is forecast lower for barley and corn as severe drought reduced area and yield potential. |
| Iraq | 0.9 | -0.2 | -19 | -41 | Production is forecast lower as barley area and yield are reduced due to drought. |
COARSE GRAINS (continued)
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| China | 143.1 | +2.0 | +1 | +6 | Production is forecast at a record level owing to record corn output. Corn area for 1998/99 and 1999/00 are revised higher. |
| Canada | 25.8 | +0.4 | +2 | -3 | Production is forecast higher due to a Statistics Canada report raising oat area. Also, barley yield is raised due to plentiful rainfall in Alberta. |
| EU-15 | 102.7 | +0.4 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher as increases in Sweden and Finland more than offset a decrease in Spain. |
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
------ 1999/00 ------- |
|||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 398.9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | Production is forecast at a record due to increases in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 6.9 | +0 | +1 | +12 | Production is forecast at a new high due to record area. |
| Total Foreign | 383.0 | +0.0 | +0 | +2 | Production is forecast at a record level based mainly on increases in China, Thailand, Philippines, and Bangladesh. |
| Philippines | 7.3 | NA | NA | +9 | Production is forecast to rebound from last year's weather-reduced crop as area and yield are projected higher. |
| Egypt | 3.1 | NA | NA | +9 | Production is forecast to increase due to higher yield as farmers have sufficient seed to plant their fields. Last season, producers had to use some of the rice stocks for seed. |
| China | 138.0 | NA | NA | +4 | Production is forecast higher due to a slight increase in area, a rebound in yield potential, and recovery from last season's flood-reduced crop. |
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS- CONTINUED)
------ 1999/00 ------- |
|||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| South Korea | 5.3 | NA | NA | +3 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in yield. Area is unchanged from last season. |
| Thailand | 14.7 | NA | NA | +3 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in area and yield. Planting of the main season crop is underway with beneficial rainfall. |
| Burma | 9.6 | NA | NA | +3 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in area as the government emphasizes exports. |
| Bangladesh | 19.5 | NA | NA | +2 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in area as producers replant their fields that were lost to floods last season. |
| India | 84.0 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged from last season's record level. Area is forecast higher, while yield is slightly below the 1998/99 record level. |
| Vietnam | 18.9 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged from last season's record level. Area is forecast slightly higher, while yield is below the 1998/99 record level. |
| Indonesia | 32.1 | NA | NA | NC | Production is unchanged from last year's level, although area is raised slightly and yield falls below the strong 1998/99 level. |
| Iran | 1.6 | NA | NA | -9 | Production is forecast lower due to drought conditions. |
| Brazil | 7.4 | NA | NA | -3 | Production is forecast lower as a return to normal yield more than offsets an increase in area. |
| Pakistan | 4.6 | NA | NA | -1 | Production is forecast lower as yield is below last season's record level. |
OILSEEDS
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 301.1 | +3.1 | +1 | +3 | Production is forecast higher for 1999/00 due to increases in the United States and total foreign category. |
| United States | 91.1 | +1.4 | +2 | +7 | Production is estimated higher for 1999/00 because of increased planted area for soybeans and cottonseed. |
| Total Foreign | 210.0 | +1.7 | +1 | +2 | Production is forecast up slightly for 1999/00 as increases in India, China, Russia, and the European Union offset a sizeable decline in Argentina. |
| Russia | 4.2 | NA | NA | +25 | Production is estimated higher due primarily to increases in area and yield of sunflowerseed. |
| Uzbekistan | 2.3 | NA | NA | +15 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in cottonseed yield. |
| Pakistan | 3.7 | NA | NA | +11 | Production is forecast up because of increases in cottonseed area and yield. |
| Eastern Europe | 5.8 | NA | NA | +8 | Production is estimated higher due to increases in rapeseed in Poland and the Czech Republic and increases in sunflowerseed in Romania and Hungary. |
| India | 26.8 | NA | NA | +4 | Production is estimated higher because of an increased yield for peanuts and modest production increases in other oilseeds. |
| EU-15 | 15.7 | NA | NA | +4 | Production is forecast higher because of increased plantings of rapeseed on set-aside area. |
| China | 43.9 | NA | NA | +2 | Production is estimated up primarily because of increased area and yield of rapeseed. |
| Argentina | 24.3 | NA | NA | -5 | Production is forecast lower as poor prices for soybeans and sunflowerseed are expected to reduce area. |
| Canada | 10.0 | NA | NA | -4 | Production is estimated down because of lower yields for rapeseed and soybeans. |
| Brazil | 31.5 | NA | NA | -1 | Production is forecast lower because of reduced area for soybeans. |
PALM OIL
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 20.6 | NA | NA | +7 | Production for 1999/00 is forecast to be a record due to increases in Indonesia and Malaysia. |
| Indonesia | 6.4 | NA | NA | +10 | Production is forecast higher due to recovery from the 1997 drought and greater area harvested. |
| Malaysia | 10.2 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in harvested area and recovery from drought. |
COTTON
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MBALES | MBALES | (%) | (%) | ||
| World Total | 89.2 | +2.2 | +2.6 | +6 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in both the domestic and foreign categories. |
| United States | 18.7 | +0.7 | +3.9 | +34 | Production is estimated up as area is higher and yield potential is improved by favorable weather in Texas and California during planting and early crop development. |
| Total Foreign | 70.5 | +1.5 | +2.2 | +0 | Production is forecast up slightly from last season due to higher yield prospects in a few major cotton producers. |
| Uzbekistan | 5.3 | NA | NA | +15 | Production is forecast up due to favorable weather patterns during the early months of the growing season. The plants have been helped by an unusually warm June which often increases potential yield. |
| Pakistan | 7.0 | NA | NA | +11 | Production is projected higher based on a combination of slightly higher area and recovery from the yield losses that resulted from late rains in 1998/99. |
COTTON (CONTINUED)
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MBALES | MBALES | (%) | (%) | ||
| Brazil | 2.1 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is estimated up due to the use of improved seeds, better crop management, and a shift in area to Center-West States where yields are higher. |
| Australia | 3.2 | NA | NA | +3 | Production is estimated higher as an increase in potential yield is projected to more than offset a loss in dryland area. |
| China | 19.5 | NA | NA | -6 | Production is estimated lower due to the impact of reduced returns from cotton. Input costs and the risk associated with cotton production continues higher than for competing crops. |
| Egypt | 1.0 | NA | NA | -5 | Production is estimated lower as area is down 7 percent from last year as farmers have switched to other crops. |
| India | 12.7 | NA | NA | -1 | Production is estimated down as lower cotton prices during 1998/99 vis-a-vis those of competing crops like rice, tobacco, chillies and coarse grains resulted in a decrease in cotton area. |
| Turkey | 3.8 | NA | NA | -1 | Production is estimated down from last season as farmers lower area in response to reduced cotton price support. |
| Argentina | 1.0 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged from last season based on reduced area combined with a return to normal yields. |
| Turkmenistan | 1.0 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged from last season as the government has taken steps to provide the same level of production credit--the lack of which was a major problem two years ago. |
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