PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1999/2000

June 1999

WHEAT

	------ 1999/00 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1998/99	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	570 .1	-2.3	-0	-3	Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and the total-foreign category.
United States	61.0	-0.1	-0	-12	Production is forecast lower due to a decrease in winter wheat output.
Total Foreign	509.1	-2.2	-0	-2	Production is forecast lower mainly due to declines in Canada, Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia.
Canada	23.5	-1.5	-6	-4	Production is forecast lower as area is reduced because of wet planting conditions in southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba.
Ukraine	14.5	-1.0	-6	-3	Production is forecast down as frost damage lowers yield potential.
Turkey	17.5	-1.0	-5	-5	Production is forecast lower due to unfavorably dry conditions in Central and Southeastern crop regions, reducing yield potential.
Russia	33.5	-0.5	-1	+25	Production is forecast lower due to unfavorably cold weather that reduced winter wheat yield prospects.
Mexico	3.1	-0.2	-6	-5	Production is forecast down as low reservoir levels in the North reduces winter wheat area.
EU-15	96.6	+1.5	+2	-7	Production is forecast up due to increased area in Germany and higher yield in France. In Germany, spring wheat area increased as farmers' winter wheat plantings were lowered by unfavorable conditions last autumn. Favorable weather boosted yield prospects in France.
Pakistan	18.0	+0.5	+3	-4	Production is forecast higher based on harvest progress reports indicating increased yield .

COARSE GRAINS

	------ 1999/00 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1998/99	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	880.2	-4.5	-1	+0	Production is estimated down due to a decrease in the total-foreign category.
United States	262.4	NC	NC	-3	Production is unchanged this month.
Total Foreign	617.8	-4.5	-1	+2	Production is forecast lower mainly due to decreases in Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and Romania.
Russia	26.2	-2.7	-9	+38	Production is forecast lower as sub-zero temperatures during the first few weeks of May reduced yield potential for barley and corn.
Ukraine	12.0	-1.1	-8	+14	Production is forecast lower as sub-freezing temperatures in the first half of May reduced yield prospects for barley, corn, and rye.
Canada	25.4	-0.5	-2	-4	Production is forecast lower for barley and oats as above normal precipitation has saturated soils, reducing area.
Romania	11.4	-0.4	-3	+13	Production is forecast lower as barley area is reduced based on planting progress reports.
Turkey	10.4	-0.2	-2	-1	Production is forecast lower as dry weather reduced barley yield potential.
Morocco	1.6	+0.4	+32	-29	Production is forecast higher as preliminary harvest reports indicate an increase in barley area.
EU-15	102.3	+0.1	+0	-2	Production is forecast higher due to increases in Germany's barley area and Denmark's mixed grain area that more than offset a decrease in France's corn area.

RICE (MILLED BASED)

RICE (MILLED BASED) FORECAST FOR 1999/00: World production is forecast at a record 389.8 million tons, up 7.6 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. Foreign production for 1999/00 is forecast at a record 383.0 million tons, up 7.0 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. Rice production in the United States is forecast at a record 6.8 million, up 0.7 million or 11 percent from 1998/99.

OILSEEDS

OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1999/00: World oilseed production is forecast at a record 298.0 million tons, up 6.3 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. Foreign production for 1999/00 is forecast at 208.3 million tons, up 1.5 million or 1 percent from last year. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast at a record 89.7 million tons, up 4.8 million or 6 percent from last year.

COTTON

COTTON FORECAST FOR 1999/00: World cotton production is forecast at 87.0 million bales, up 2.7 million or 3 percent from 1998/99. Total foreign production for 1999/00 is forecast at 69.0 million bales, down 1.4 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. United States production is forecast at 18.0 million bales, up 4.1 million or 29 percent from 1998/99 based on recovery from last year's adverse weather.

PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99

June 1999

WHEAT

	------ 1998/99 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	587.9	-0.1	-0	-4	Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total-foreign category.
United States	69.4	NC	NC	+3	Production is unchanged this month.
Total Foreign	518.5	-0.1	-0	-4	Production is estimated slightly lower this month.

COARSE GRAINS


	------ 1998/99 -------
	Country	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	878.2	+0.4	+0	-0	Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total-foreign category.
United States	271.6	NC	NC	+4	Production is unchanged this month.
Total Foreign	606.7	+0.4	+0	-2	Production is estimated higher as increases in South African corn, Australian oats and sorghum, and Argentine sorghum output more than offset declines in Mexican sorghum and Australian barley crops.

WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)

	------ 1998/99 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	382 .2	+2.6	+1	-1	Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total-foreign category.
United States	6.1	NC	NC	+3	Production is unchanged this month.
Total Foreign	376.0	+2.6	+1	-1	Production is estimated higher based on increases in Bangladesh and India.
Bangladesh	19.1	+1.3	+7	+1	Production is estimated at a record due to a record boro crop.
India	84.0	+1.0	+1	+2	Production is estimated at a record due to excellent weather throughout the growing season. Also, the recently harvested rabi crop is much above average.

OILSEEDS

	------ 1998/99 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	291.7	-0.4	-0	+2	Production is estimated down due to a decrease in the total-foreign category.
United States	84.9	NC	NC	+2	Production is unchanged this month.
Total Foreign	206.8	-0.4	-0	+2	Production is estimated lower as decreases in Italy, Argentina, and India more than offset an increase in China.
Italy	1.6	-0.4	-20	-11	Production is estimated down as a result of unfavorable weather for the soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed crops.
Argentina	25.6	-0.3	-1	-1	Production is estimated lower due to rainfall that was excessive for the cottonseed and peanut crops, and earlier weather damage to the soybean crop.
India	25.8	-0.2	-1	+8	Production is estimated lower as reduced yields for cottonseed and peanuts more than offsets increased soybean output.
China	43.0	+0.4	+1	-1	Production is estimated higher as official government data increases cottonseed and peanut output.

PALM OIL

	------ 1998/99 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	18.8	+0.4	+2	+11	Production is estimated higher due to an increase in Malaysia.
Malaysia	9.3	+0.4	+4	+9	Production is estimated higher because of a higher extraction rate and higher fruit production.

COTTON

	------ 1998/99 -------
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MBALES	MBALES	(%)	(%)
World Total	84.4	+0.3	+0	-8	Production is estimated up due to an increase in the total-foreign category.
United States	13.9	NC	NC	-26	Production is unchanged this month. This is the smallest crop since 1989 reflecting mostly the drought in the high plains of Texas.
Total Foreign	70.4	+0.3	+0	-3	Production is estimated higher due to increases in China and Brazil more than offsetting lower production in India and Argentina.
China	20.7	+0.5	+2	-2	Production is estimated up based on official government data.
Brazil	2.0	+0.1	+5	+15	Production is estimated up as harvest results indicate an increase in yield, reflecting the very favorable harvest weather.
India	12.8	-0.1	-1	+4	Production is estimated lower as the central and southern crops were slightly below previous expectations.
Argentina	1.0	-0.1	-9	-29	Production is estimated down as yield was reduced by cool, wet weather in the main cotton producing states of Chaco and Formosa.

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