PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1999/2000
May 1999
WHEAT
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 572.4 | NA | NA | -3 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and the total-foreign category. |
| United States | 61.1 | NA | NA | -12 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in area and yield. |
| Total Foreign | 511.3 | NA | NA | -1 | Production is forecast lower due mainly to reductions in the EU-15, Eastern Europe, and China. |
| Morocco | 2.0 | NA | NA | -55 | Production is forecast lower for both area and yield. Planting conditions were poor due to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. Spring rainfall was sparse, eroding yield prospects. |
| Hungary | 3.0 | NA | NA | -40 | Production is forecast lower as a wet fall limited winter wheat area. |
| Syria | 2.5 | NA | NA | -39 | Production is forecast lower as area and yield are reduced by drought. |
| Iran | 9.5 | NA | NA | -21 | Production is forecast lower due to unfavorable dry conditions, reducing yield potential. |
| Romania | 4.5 | NA | NA | -13 | Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in area as unusually wet weather in the fall stalled plantings. |
| EU-15 | 95.1 | NA | NA | -8 | Production is forecast lower due to reduced area because of the higher set-aside and lower yield prospects in some countries, especially Spain. |
| Poland | 9.0 | NA | NA | -6 | Production is forecast lower as yield returns to a more normal level. |
| China | 106.0 | NA | NA | -4 | Production is forecast lower as a very dry fall and winter negatively affected germination. Spring rainfall in the eastern North China Plain has continued to be below normal. |
| Tunisia | 2.0 | NA | NA | +48 | Production is forecast at a bumper level due to an increase in yield. Rainfall was generally favorable across the growing regions. |
WHEAT, continued |
|||||
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| Kazakstan | 6.0 | NA | NA | +28 | Production is forecast higher due to a rebound in yield potential following last year's sever drought. |
| Russia | 34.0 | NA | NA | +26 | Production is forecast higher due to increased area and a return to more-normal yield. Winter wheat prospects are guarded due to a very dry fall; however, soil moisture is adequate for spring wheat plantings. |
| Brazil | 2.5 | NA | NA | +14 | Production is forecast up due to increased area based on higher domestic prices. |
| Argentina | 12.0 | NA | NA | +12 | Production is forecast higher due to increased area and yield. The anticipation of relatively stronger prices than competing crops and normal planting conditions raised area potential. |
| India | 71.5 | NA | NA | +8 | Production is forecast at a record level due to increases in area and yield. The crop benefitted from favorable weather throughout the growing season. |
| Pakistan | 17.5 | NA | NA | -6 | Production is forecast down due to slight decreases in area and yield. Input use is reportedly lower this season. |
| Australia | 22.0 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is forecast higher due to expected area and yield increases. Planting conditions are generally favorable. |
| Ukraine | 15.5 | NA | NA | +4 | Production is forecast higher as favorable spring weather compensates for a dry fall. Area is similar to last season's level. |
| Mexico | 3.3 | NA | NA | +2 | Production is forecast higher as an increase in area offsets a decrease in yield. |
| Canada | 25.0 | NA | NA | +2 | Production is forecast higher as area is similar to last season. Yield is slightly higher than average due to a large area change from durum to spring wheat varieties. |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged due to a Government production quota. |
| Turkey | 18.5 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast similar to last season as an area increase offsets a slight decrease in yield prospects. |
COARSE GRAINS
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 884.7 | NA | NA | +1 | Production is forecast higher as an increase in the total-foreign category more than offsets a decline in the United States. |
| United States | 262.4 | NA | NA | -3 | Production is forecast lower due mainly to decreases in corn and barley. Corn area and yield are projected down this year. |
| Total Foreign | 622.3 | NA | NA | +3 | Production is forecast higher due mainly to increases in China, South Africa, Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine. |
| Russia | 28.9 | NA | NA | +53 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in barley, oats, rye, and corn crops that were drought- reduced last season. |
| South Africa | 8.5 | NA | NA | +32 | Production is forecast higher as corn yield returns to an average level from 1998/99 drought reduced crop. Area increased slightly. |
| Ukraine | 13.1 | NA | NA | +25 | Production is forecast higher due to increases mainly in barley and corn yields. Also, corn area is projected to rebound from last season's drought reduced level. |
| Romania | 11.8 | NA | NA | +16 | Production is forecast higher as corn area is up from last season. A wet fall prevented some area from being planted to wheat. This area is expected to be planted to corn this spring. |
| Hungary | 8.7 | NA | NA | +14 | Production is forecast up as corn area may be sown on fields that were too wet to plant with wheat, last fall. |
| Argentina | 20.1 | NA | NA | +10 | Production is forecast higher as corn area is above last year's level. Yield is projected to be unchanged. |
| China | 141.1 | NA | NA | +4 | Production is forecast higher as corn area and yield are up. Corn output is projected to be a record. |
| Mexico | 25.1 | NA | NA | +2 | Production is forecast higher as an increase in corn area more than offsets a decrease in sorghum. |
| Brazil | 33.9 | NA | NA | +1 | Production is forecast higher as corn area is increased and yield is near-average levels. |
| Turkey | 10.6 | NA | NA | +1 | Production is forecast slightly higher due to an increase in corn yield potential. Barley output is forecast unchanged from last year. |
COARSE GRAIN, continued |
|||||
| ------ 1999/00 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1998/99 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| Kazakstan | 1.1 | NA | NA | -20 | Production is forecast down due to continued decrease in barley area. |
| Indonesia | 5.8 | NA | NA | -11 | Production is forecast down due to lower corn area and yield. |
| Poland | 15.9 | NA | NA | -10 | Production is forecast lower as crops return to a near-average yield. |
| Thailand | 4.2 | NA | NA | -7 | Production is forecast lower due to an area decrease for corn. |
| Australia | 7.9 | NA | NA | -6 | Production is forecast slightly lower due to decreases in barley and sorghum from 1998/99. |
| Canada | 25.9 | NA | NA | -2 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in barley, corn, rye, and oats. Oats area is down nearly 6 percent from last year. |
| EU-15 | 102.1 | NA | NA | -2 | Production is forecast down from last season as a decrease in barley area more than offsets an increase in corn yield. |
RICE (MILLED BASED)
RICE (MILLED BASED) FORECAST FOR 1999/00: World production is forecast at a record 388.8 million tons, up 9.2 million or 2 percent form 1998/99. Foreign production for 1999/00 is forecast at a record 382.0 million tons, up 8.6 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. Rice production in the United States is forecast at a record 6.8 million, up 0.6 million or 10 percent from 1998/99.
OILSEEDS
OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1999/00: World oilseed production is forecast at a record 298.0 million tons, up 5.9 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. Foreign production for 1999/00 is forecast at 208.3 million tons, up 1.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast at a record 89.7 million tons, up 4.8 million or 6 percent from last year.
COTTON
COTTON FORECAST FOR 1999/00: World cotton production is forecast at 87.0 million bales, up 2.9 million or 3 percent from 1998/99. Total foreign production for 1999/00 is forecast at 69.0 million bales, down 1.2 million or 2 percent from 1998/99. United States production is forecast at 18.0 million bales, up 4.1 million or 29 percent from 1998/99 as west Texas is expected to recover from last year's drought.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99
May 1999
WHEAT
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 588.0 | +0.8 | +0 | -4 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 69.4 | NC | NC | +3 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 518.6 | +0.8 | +0 | -4 | Production is estimated higher due to increases mainly in Turkey and Algeria. |
| Turkey | 18.5 | +0.5 | +3 | +16 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in yield. |
COARSE GRAINS
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments | |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 877.8 | -0.4 | -0 | -0 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 271.6 | NC | NC | +4 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 606.2 | -0.4 | -0 | -2 | Production is estimated lower as declines in corn output for Argentina and Zimbabwe and barley in Iran more than offset increases in sorghum output for Australia and corn for Indonesia and Greece. |
| Argentina | 18.4 | -0.5 | -3 | -26 | Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in corn harvested area. |
| Zimbabwe | 1.7 | -0.4 | -19 | +4 | Production is estimate lower based on a decrease in corn yield. |
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 379.6 | +1.2 | +0 | -2 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 6.1 | NC | NC | +3 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 373.5 | +1.2 | +0 | -2 | Production is estimated higher as an increase in India more than offsets a decrease in Indonesia. |
| India | 83.0 | +2.0 | +2 | +1 | Production is estimated at a record due to excellent weather throughout the growing season. Also, the recently harvested rabi crop is above average. |
| Indonesia | 32.1 | -0.9 | -3 | +5 | Production is estimated down as the milling rate was revised lower to 0.632 for both this season and last year. |
OILSEEDS
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 292.1 | -1.1 | -0 | +2 | Production is estimated down as a decrease in the total-foreign category more than offsets an increase in the United States. |
| United States | 84.9 | +0.3 | +0 | +2 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in cottonseed yield. |
| Total Foreign | 207.2 | -1.4 | -1 | +2 | Production is estimated lower due to decreases in Argentina, India, and Paraguay. |
| Argentina | 25.9 | -0.6 | -2 | +0 | Production is estimated down primarily due to frost that affected late maturing crops, and heavy rains on mature crops. The commodities reduced are soybeans, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanuts. |
| India | 25.9 | -0.3 | -1 | +7 | Production is estimated lower because of unfavorable weather for rapeseed in Uttar Pradesh. |
| Paraguay | 3.4 | -0.1 | -3 | +7 | Production is estimated lower due to heavy rains at harvest, adversely affecting soybeans. |
PALM OIL
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 18.5 | +0.6 | +3 | +8 | Production is estimated higher due to increases in Indonesia and Malaysia. |
| Indonesia | 5.8 | +0.3 | +5 | +16 | Production is estimated higher as trees planted 3 to 4 years ago are starting to produce. |
| Malaysia | 8.9 | +0.2 | +2 | +5 | Production is estimated higher as output in the last two months has exceeded expectations. |
COTTON
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MBALES | MBALES | (%) | (%) | ||
| World Total | 84.1 | -0.6 | -1 | -8 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total-foreign category. |
| United States | 13.9 | +0.0 | +0 | -26 | Production is estimated slightly higher due to a yield increase that offsets a slight drop in area. This is the smallest crop since 1989. |
| Total Foreign | 70.2 | -0.6 | -1 | -4 | Production is estimated lower due to decreases in Argentina, Pakistan, and Australia. |
| Argentina | 1.1 | -0.3 | -21 | -19 | Production is estimated down due to cool, wet weather in the main cotton producing states of Chaco and Formosa. |
| Pakistan | 6.3 | -0.2 | -3 | -12 | Production is estimated lower based on reduced cotton arrivals at gins, resulting in lower-than-expected production. |
| Australia | 3.1 | -0.1 | -3 | +1 | Production is estimated down due to lower yield resulting from insect infestation caused by the wetter than normal growing season. |
