Included This Month: 1998/99 Forecasts:
This month, USDA forecasts outyear (1999/00) wheat and coarse grain production for all countries. Only aggregate foreign and U.S. rice, total oilseeds, and cotton production are forecast. In July, individual foreign country production numbers will be released for these commodities. World 1999/00 wheat production is forecast down from 1998/99, primarily in the United States, China, EU-15, and Eastern Europe. However, wheat production is forecast higher than last year in Russia, India, Argentina, Australia, and Canada. World 1999/00 coarse grain production is forecast higher due to increases mainly in South Africa, Russia, China, and Argentina, while lower in the United States and EU-15. World 1999/00 rice production is forecast at a record level due to a projected records in both the United States and total foreign output. World oilseed production for 1999/00 is forecast higher. Larger plantings and favorable weather has been reported for foreign winter rapeseed. The copra and palm kernel production may increase as palm stands recover from the regional effects of low rainfall in 1997, but soybean production will likely be limited by low world soybean prices. World cotton production for 1999/00 is forecast up from 1998/99 as the U.S. recovers from last year's West-Texas drought. Preliminary forecast suggest a slight drop in foreign production while the U.S.'s larger production more than offsets the drop in foreign output, pushing world production above 1998/99.