April 1999

Total foreign winter grain area for 1999/2000 most likely will be below the level achieved last season with regional differences. In the European Union, area is expected to be lower for winter grain crops due to relatively weaker prices, weather difficulties, and increased set-aside. Generally, crop prospects are favorable, but below normal rainfall in Portugal and Spain and excessive rainfall in northern Europe delayed or prevented planting. For Eastern Europe, area is projected lower as rain and snow along with cold weather in late-October and early-November delayed winter grain planting in southeastern Europe. Initial crop prospects are below last season's level, but above average. In Russia, winter grain area is reportedly lower than last season's level, as below-normal precipitation last fall in southern Russia hampered plantings. In Ukraine, winter grain area is expected to match only last season's reduced level due to drought that persisted through the middle of October in the eastern growing regions. For India favorable weather pushed projected area above last season's level, while Pakistan's area is virtually unchanged. In China, based on planting intentions by the State Statistical Burea, winter wheat area is projected slightly higher. The fall of 1998 and winter of 1999 were among the driest on record in the North China Plain, but irrigation aided winter wheat. Crop prospects are guarded at this time. In the Middle East, grain area is projected to be relatively unchanged and crop prospects are generally favorable in most of Turkey but poor from Syria east to Iran. In Northwest Africa, area is projected below last season's level due to fall dryness in Morocco; however, in Algeria and Tunisia area is projected to be similar to 1998/99. In Canada, winter wheat area is similar to the previous year and crop prospects are favorable. In Mexico, area is projected slightly higher than last season, but irrigation supplies continue to be low.