PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99
December 1998
WHEAT
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 585.8 | -2.5 | -0 | -4 | Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 69.6 | NC | NC | +1 | Production is unchanged this month. |
| Total Foreign | 516.2 | -2.5 | -0 | -5 | Production is forecast lower as reductions in Australia, Russia, India, and Argentina more than offset an increase in Canada. |
| Australia | 21.0 | -1.0 | -5 | +8 | Production is forecast lower due to excessive rainfall in News South Wales and dry conditions in Victoria. |
| Russia | 27.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -39 | Production is estimated lower due to harvest progress reports that indicate reduced yield. |
| India | 66.1 | -1.0 | -1 | -5 | Production is forecast down based on official reports indicating lower yield, but higher area. |
| Argentina | 10.0 | -0.5 | -5 | -32 | Production is forecast lower due to dryness in southern Buenos Aires province that reduced harvested area and yield potential. |
| Canada | 24.4 | +1.1 | +5 | +0 | Production is estimated higher based on a Statistics Canada report indicating increased area and yield. |
COARSE GRAINS
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 882.2 | -1.7 | -0 | -0 | Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 273.7 | NC | NC | +3 | Production is unchanged this month. |
| Total Foreign | 608.5 | -1.7 | -0 | -2 | Production is forecast lower as decreases in Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia more than offset increases in Canada, Romania, and South Africa. |
| Argentina | 17.5 | -1.5 | -8 | -29 | Production is forecast lower as corn area and yield are reduced due to continued dry weather. |
| Brazil | 34.3 | -1.0 | -3 | +8 | Production is forecast lower as dry weather at planting has forced producers to plant less corn area. |
| Ukraine | 10.3 | -0.8 | -7 | -33 | Production is estimated lower due to harvest reports indicating lower yields. |
| Russia | 20.9 | -0.2 | -1 | -49 | Production is estimated lower due to lower corn yield caused by drought. |
| Zambia | 1.1 | -0.2 | -16 | +49 | Production is forecast lower as fertilizer and input shortages continue to plague producers. |
| Australia | 8.1 | -0.2 | -2 | -14 | Production is forecast lower due to an ABARE report indicating a decrease in barley yield. |
| Canada | 26.5 | +1.3 | +5 | +6 | Production is estimated higher due mainly to record corn yield and output as reported by Statistics Canada. |
| Romania | 9.8 | +0.6 | +7 | -35 | Production is estimated up as preliminary harvest results indicate higher corn area and yield. |
| South Africa | 9.6 | +0.5 | +6 | +19 | Production is forecast higher due to an upward adjustment in corn area due to favorable weather during planting. |
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
------ 1998/99 ------- |
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| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 377.4 | +0.7 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 5.9 | NC | NC | +1 | Production is unchanged this month. |
| Total Foreign | 371.5 | +0.7 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher as increases in China, Vietnam, and South Korea more than offset decreases in India, Egypt, and Bangladesh. |
| China | 133.0 | +1.0 | +1 | -5 | Production is forecast higher based on an increase in yield due to favorable rainfall and no reports of pest problems in the late-rice crop. |
| Vietnam | 18.5 | +0.5 | +3 | -2 | Production is forecast higher, in part, due to reports of record yield for the 10th month crop. Also, last season's output is revised higher. |
| South Korea | 5.0 | +0.3 | +6 | -8 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in potential yield. Typhoon damage was not as-bad-as previously estimated and reports of much higher input use buoyed production prospects. |
| India | 81.0 | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | Production is forecast lower as heavy post monsoon rain at harvest negatively affected yield. In addition, last year's crop is revised lower based on official data. |
| Egypt | 3.1 | -0.4 | -11 | -15 | Production is forecast lower as producers reduced area in expectation that government fines would be levied against expanded area. However, yield is at a record level due to increased use of high yielding varieties. |
| Bangladesh | 17.8 | -0.3 | -1 | -5 | Production is forecast lower due to damages caused by excessive rainfall during the aman harvest and insect problems. |
OILSEEDS
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 288.0 | -0.0 | -0 | +1 | Production is estimated down slightly as a decrease in the total foreign category more than offset an increase in the United States. |
| United States | 84.2 | +0.1 | +0 | +1 | Production is estimated up slightly due to higher cottonseed output. |
| Total Foreign | 203.8 | -0.1 | -0 | +1 | Production is estimated lower as decreases in the Former Soviet Union and India more than offset increases in Canada, Argentina, and South Africa. |
| FSU-12 | 8.9 | -0.7 | -7 | -3 | Production is estimated lower based on harvest results indicating that Russian and Ukranian sunflower yields were hurt more by the summer drought than previously estimated. |
| India | 26.7 | -0.4 | -1 | +10 | Production is estimated lower due primarily to unfavorable weather that reduced peanut output. Cottonseed production is estimated higher, while soybean and rapeseed output are estimated lower. |
| Italy | 2.1 | -0.1 | -5 | +12 | Production is estimated lower due to unfavorable growing and harvest weather for the soybean crop. |
| Canada | 10.5 | +0.5 | +5 | +14 | Production is estimated higher based on a survey by Statistics Canada which showed higher area and yields for rapeseed and soybeans. |
| Argentina | 24.8 | +0.4 | +2 | -2 | Production is forecast higher because of increased soybean planted area. Dry conditions in some areas caused producers to shift area into soybeans from corn. |
| South Africa | 1.2 | +0.4 | +45 | +33 | Production is forecast higher based primarily on increased planting intentions for sunflowerseed. |
| Germany | 3.4 | +0.1 | +3 | +15 | Production is estimated up based on a higher official rapeseed production estimate. |
PALM OIL
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 17.7 | NC | NC | +5 | No change this month. Production is estimated at a record. |
COTTON
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MBALES | MBALES | (%) | (%) | ||
| World Total | 84.2 | +0.5 | +1 | -8 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 13.5 | +0.2 | +2 | -28 | Production is estimated up due to a slight increase in yield, mainly in Texas. |
| Total Foreign | 70.8 | +0.3 | +0 | -3 | Production is forecast higher as increases in India and Australia more than offset losses in Egypt and other minor producers. |
| India | 13.0 | +0.5 | +4 | +6 | Production is forecast higher due to record area and increased yield potential as favorable weather allowed for additional pickings in the central cotton zone states. |
| Australia | 3.3 | +0.1 | +3 | +8 | Production is estimated up reflecting an increase in rain fed area due to abundant rainfall. |
| Egypt | 1.1 | -0.2 | -13 | -32 | Production is forecast down due to decreased yield potential as unfavorable hot weather reduced yield potential during the latter portion of the growing season. |
