PRODUCTION
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99
November 1998
WHEAT
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 588.3 | -2.3 | -0 | -4 | Production is forecast lower due to a decline in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 69.6 | NC | NC | +1 | Production is unchanged this month. |
| Total Foreign | 518.7 | -2.3 | -0 | -4 | Production is forecast lower due to reductions in Australia, Russia, Kazakstan, Brazil, and South Africa. |
| Australia | 22.0 | -1.5 | -6 | +13 | Production is forecast lower based on excessive rainfall in News South Wales that reduced yield potential. |
| Russia | 28.0 | -0.5 | -2 | -37 | Production is forecast lower due to harvest progress reports that indicate reduced yield. |
| Kazakstan | 5.0 | -0.5 | -9 | -44 | Production is forecast down based on preliminary harvest results indicating lower yield. |
| Brazil | 2.2 | -0.2 | -6 | -8 | Production is forecast lower as prolonged rains during the harvest in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul reduced yield. |
| South Africa | 1.5 | -0.1 | -8 | -35 | Production is forecast lower due to official estimates lowering yield prospects. |
| Pakistan | 18.7 | +0.2 | +1 | +12 | Production is forecast at a record due to an upward revision in yield. |
COARSE GRAINS
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 883.9 | +0.9 | +0 | -0 | Production is forecast higher as an increase in the United States more than offsets a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 273.7 | +2.4 | +1 | +3 | Production is forecast higher due mainly to an increase in corn. Corn output and yield is estimated to be the second highest in history. |
| Total Foreign | 610.2 | -1.4 | -0 | -2 | Production is forecast lower as decreases in the EU-15, Belarus, Brazil, Russia, and Australia more than offset increases in Mexico and Yugoslavia. |
| EU-15 | 104.1 | -0.9 | -1 | -5 | Production is forecast lower mainly due to yield reductions for corn in France and Italy and for barley in the United Kingdom. |
| Belarus | 4.2 | -0.7 | -14 | -19 | Production is forecast lower for barley and rye based on initial harvest results. |
| Brazil | 35.3 | -0.5 | -1 | +11 | Production is forecast lower due to a downward adjustment in expected corn area. |
| Russia | 21.1 | -0.5 | -2 | -48 | Production is forecast lower based on preliminary harvest progress results that indicate lower barley yield. |
| Australia | 8.3 | -0.5 | -6 | -10 | Production is forecast lower as prospective barley yield is reduced based on unfavorable weather. |
| Ethiopia | 6.5 | -0.4 | -5 | +23 | Production is forecast lower for sorghum and millet output. |
| Mexico | 25.1 | +1.1 | +4 | +8 | Production is forecast higher as late-planted corn benefitted from a long rainy season. Also, corn production for 1997/98 is revised lower. |
| Yugoslavia | 8.9 | +0.5 | +6 | -16 | Production is forecast higher due to increased corn output in Serbia and Croatia. |
| Indonesia | 6.3 | +0.3 | +5 | +11 | Production is forecast higher due to adequate rainfall and increased use of hybrid corn. |
| Kenya | 2.9 | +0.3 | +12 | +14 | Production is forecast higher due to favorable rainfall that boosted corn yield. |
| Thailand | 4.7 | +0.2 | +4 | +21 | Production is forecast higher due to favorable rainfall and increased use of high yield corn varieties. |
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
------ 1998/99 ------- |
|||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 376.6 | +0.4 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher as an increase in the total foreign category more than offsets a decrease in the United States. |
| United States | 5.9 | -0.0 | -1 | +1 | Production is estimated lower due to a decline in yield. |
| Total Foreign | 370.7 | +0.4 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher as increases in Thailand, Iran, Brazil, Australia, and Tanzania more than offset decreases in the Philippines and EU-15. |
| Thailand | 15.0 | +0.2 | +1 | -1 | Production is forecast higher based on an increase in yield due to favorable rainfall. |
| Iran | 1.8 | +0.2 | +9 | +9 | Production is forecast higher due to reports of increased yield. |
| Brazil | 6.8 | +0.1 | +2 | +17 | Production is forecast higher due to increased area. |
| Australia | 0.9 | +0.1 | +12 | -8 | Production is forecast higher based on an ABARE report citing increased area. Rainfall has been plentiful. |
| Tanzania | 0.6 | +0.1 | +29 | +53 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in area and yield. |
| Philippines | 6.9 | -0.3 | -4 | +7 | Production is forecast lower due to extensive damage caused by two typhoons that reduced area and yield prospects. |
| EU-15 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -6 | -2 | Production is forecast lower mainly due to an area reduction in Italy. |
OILSEEDS
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 288.0 | -0.3 | -0 | +0 | Production is estimated lower due to reduction in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 84.1 | -0.2 | -0 | +1 | Production is forecast down as lower yields for soybeans and cottonseed more than offset an increase for peanuts. |
| Total Foreign | 203.9 | -0.2 | -0 | +0 | Production is estimated lower as decreases in Uzbekistan and Sudan more than offset an increase in Paraguay. |
| Uzbekistan | 2.0 | -0.2 | -9 | -13 | Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in cottonseed yield. |
| Sudan | 0.5 | -0.1 | -17 | -9 | Production is estimated lower because of declines in cottonseed area and yield. |
| Paraguay | 3.3 | +0.2 | +6 | +10 | Production is forecast higher as improved cultural practices for soybeans increase potential yield. |
PALM OIL
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MMT | MMT | (%) | (%) | ||
| World | 17.7 | NC | NC | +5 | No change this month for 1998/99, but production for 1997/98 was estimated lower by 0.1 million tons because of a reduction in Malaysia. |
COTTON
| ------ 1998/99 ------- | |||||
| Country | Current Estimate | Monthly Change | Monthly Change | Change from 1997/98 | Comments |
| MBALES | MBALES | (%) | (%) | ||
| World Total | 83.7 | -1.1 | -1 | -8 | Production is forecast down based on lower production in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 13.2 | -0.1 | -0 | -30 | Production is estimated lower due to a small drop in yield offsetting a slight gain in area. |
| Total Foreign | 70.5 | -1.0 | -1 | -3 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in Uzbekistan, Sudan, Argentina, and Azerbaijan. |
| Uzbekistan | 4.6 | -0.4 | -8 | -13 | Production is forecast lower due to decreased yield potential as unfavorable weather hindered production. |
| Sudan | 0.3 | -0.2 | -40 | -25 | Production is estimated down reflecting the effect of intense rainfall during recent months, reducing area and yield. |
| Argentina | 1.5 | -0.1 | -6 | +11 | Production is forecast down as reduced cotton area reflects a shortage of credit due to the recent decline in world cotton prices. |
| Azerbaijan | 0.2 | -0.1 | -33 | +5 | Production is forecast lower due to decreased yield potential as unfavorable weather and economic problems hampered production. |
