PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99

October 1998

WHEAT

  ------ 1998/99 -------  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MMT MMT (%) (%)  
World 590.6 -5.6 -1 -3 Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and the total foreign category.
United States 69.6 -0.2 -0 +1 Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in area.
Total Foreign 521.0 -5.4 -1 -4 Production is forecast lower due to reductions in Russia, Argentina, Kazakstan, and Brazil.
Russia 28.5 -3.5 -11 -36 Production is forecast lower due to harvest progress reports that indicate reduced yield.
Argentina 10.5 -1.0 -9 -29 Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in harvested area and prospective yield as a result of dry weather.
Kazakstan 5.5 -1.0 -15 -39 Production is forecast down based on reports of lower yield caused by hot, dry weather earlier in the season.
Brazil 2.4 -0.2 -8 -2 Production is forecast lower as wet weather during harvest is resulting in reduced yield.
EU-15 103.4 +0.2 +0 +9 Production is forecast at a record as increases in Germany and France's yield prospects more than offset a decline in yield for the United Kingdom and Sweden.
Canada 23.3 +0.2 +1 -4 Production is forecast higher due to a report from Statistics Canada.

COARSE GRAINS

  ------ 1998/99 -------  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MMT MMT (%) (%)  
World 882.9 -11.5 -1 -1 Production is forecast lower due to reductions in the United States and the total foreign category.
United States 271.3 -0.4 -0 +2 Production is forecast down as decreases in barley, oats, and sorghum more than offset an increase in corn output.
Total Foreign 611.6 -11.1 -2 -2 Production is forecast lower as reductions in Russia, Argentina, EU-15, Romania, India, Ukraine, and Kazakstan more than offset an increase in China.
Russia 21.6 -3.3 -13 -47 Production is forecast lower as harvest progress reports indicate a decline in yield for barley, oats, corn, and rye.
EU-15 105.1 -1.9 -2 -4 Production is forecast lower as corn yield is reduced in France, Italy, and Spain. Also, barley and oats output are revised lower, while rye is estimated higher.
Argentina 19.0 -1.6 -8 -23 Production is forecast lower due to reduced corn area caused by more favorable oilseed prospects.
Romania 9.2 -1.6 -15 -39 Production is forecast lower as initial harvest reports indicate reduced corn yield.
India 30.9 -1.3 -4 +1 Production is forecast lower due to reduced yields for corn and millet.
Ukraine 11.1 -1.0 -8 -28 Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in corn yield caused by hot, dry weather during the summer.
Kazakstan 1.5 -0.5 -25 -53 Production is forecast lower due to a strong August drought that reduced barley yield.
Canada 25.2 -0.2 -1 +1 Production is forecast lower due to a report from Statistics Canada that reduced barley output.
Nigeria 17.4 -0.2 -1 +3 Production is forecast lower as a decline in millet yield more than offset an increase in sorghum.
China 135.7 +1.0 +1 +18 Production is forecast higher as favorable weather improved corn yield potential. Sorghum output is lower based on a downward revision for 1997/98.

RICE (MILLED BASIS)

 

------ 1998/99 -------

  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MMT MMT (%) (%)  
World 376.3 -2.4 -1 -2 Production is forecast lower as a decrease in the total foreign category more than offset an increase in the United States.
United States 5.9 +0 +0 +1 Production is forecast slightly higher due to an increase in yield.
Total Foreign 370.4 -2.4 -1 -2 Production is estimated lower due to reductions in India, Bangladesh, and Japan.
India 81.5 -1.5 -2 -2 Production is forecast lower as yield is reduced due to below normal rainfall in the central and western regions and floods in the Gangetic Plain.
Bangladesh 18.0 -0.7 -4 -3 Production is forecast lower as area and yield are reduced due to flooding.
Japan 7.9 -0.2 -2 -13 Production is forecast lower as yield is reduced due to excessive rains at harvest.

OILSEEDS

  ------ 1998/99 -------  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MMT MMT (%) (%)  
World 288.3 -2.5 -1 +1 Production is estimated lower as a decline in the United States, more than offset an increase in the total foreign category.
United States 84.3 -3.9 -4 +1 Production is estimated down due to lower soybean yield. Production is still a record.
Total Foreign 204.1 +1.4 +1 +0 Production is estimated higher because of increases in Argentina, Canada, Romania, India, Australia and China.
Argentina 24.4 +1.0 +4 -3 Production is forecast higher as soybean planting intentions indicate a larger area than previously expected.
Canada 9.9 +0.3 +3 +9 Production is estimated up because favorable harvest weather boosted rapeseed yield.
           

OILSEEDS, continued
  ------ 1998/99 -------  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MMT MMT (%) (%)  
China 40.7 +0.1 +0 -6 Production is estimated higher as favorable weather in peanut growing areas more than offset the effects of unfavorable weather in northern soybean areas.
Romania 1.2 +0.1 +11 +24 Production is estimated higher based on an increase in sunflower area.
India 27.1 +0.1 +0 +5 Production is forecast higher due to an increased estimate for soybeans which more than offset an area reduction for rapeseed.
Australia 3.0 +0.1 +3 +45 Production is estimated up due to a higher rapeseed area.
Spain 1.5 -0.1 -6 -5 Production is estimated lower due to a decline in sunflower yield.

PALM OIL

  ------ 1998/99 -------  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MMT MMT (%) (%)  
World 17.7 -0.5 -3 +4 Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in Indonesia.
Indonesia 5.5 -0.5 -8 +10 Production is estimated lower due to reduced yield resulting from dry, hazy conditions in 1997.

COTTON

  ------ 1998/99 -------  
Country Current Estimate Monthly Change Monthly Change Change from 1997/98 Comments
  MBALES MBALES (%) (%)  
World Total 84.8 -0.6 -1 -7 Production is forecast lower due to decreases in both the United States and the total foreign category.
United States 13.3 -0.3 -2 -29 Production is estimated down reflecting a reduction in harvested area. This year's production is the lowest since 1989/90.
Total Foreign 71.5 -0.3 -0 -1 Production is forecast lower due to decreases in Egypt and other minor producers.
Egypt 1.2 -0.2 -13 -23 Production is forecast lower due to decreased sown area and yield potential as hot, dry weather during August and September reduced boll development.