PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99

September 1998

WHEAT

	----- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	596 .2	-1.5	-0	-3	Production is forecast lower as a decrease in the total foreign category more than offsets an increase in the United States.
United States	69.8	+0.4	+1	+2	Production is forecast up due to higher spring wheat yield.
Total Foreign	526.4	-1.9	-0	-3	Production is forecast lower as reductions in Russia, Canada, and South Africa more than offset increases in Australia and Eastern Europe.
Russia	32.0	-3.0	-9	-28	Production is forecast lower due to hot, dry weather that reduced yield.
Canada	23.2	-0.9	-4	-5	Production is forecast down based on a Statistics Canada report indicating lower yield.
South Africa	1.6	-0.5	-24	-30	Production is forecast lower as continued weak wheat prices resulted in reduced sowing.
Mexico	3.3	-0.3	-8	-6	Production is forecast lower as initial harvest results indicate a reduction in yield.
EU-15	103.2	-0.2	-0	+9	Production is forecast at a record despite a slight reduction this month. A decrease in Germany's yield prospects more than offset an increase in France.
Australia	23.5	+2.0	+9	+21	Production is forecast higher as favorable weather and an increase in area boosts production prospects.
Poland	9.3	+0.7	+8	+14	Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather across most of the growing areas.
Hungary	5.0	+0.5	+11	-5	Production is forecast higher based on preliminary harvest reports raising yield.

COARSE GRAINS

	----- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	894 .4	+0.6	+0	+0	Production is forecast higher as an increase in the United States more than offsets a decrease in the total foreign category.
United States	271.8	+3.7	+1	+2	Production is forecast higher due mainly to an increase in corn yield. If realized, this would be the second largest production and yield on record.
Total Foreign	622.7	-3.1	-0	-1	Production is forecast lower as reductions in Russia, Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine more than offset increases in the EU-15, Hungary, Australia, and Thailand.
Russia	24.9	-2.0	-7	-39	Production is forecast lower as initial harvest results indicate a decline in barley, oats, and rye yields.
Argentina	20.6	-1.5	-7	-18	Production is forecast lower as weak world corn prices reduces planting intentions.
Mexico	24.0	-1.2	-5	+1	Production is forecast lower as corn area and yield are reduced. The 1997/98 corn output is revised lower based on harvest reports indicating a reduction in the second-season crop.
Ukraine	12.1	-0.7	-5	-21	Production is forecast lower as harvest progress reports indicate lower barley yield.
Canada	25.4	-0.2	-1	+1	Production is forecast lower based on a Statistics Canada report indicating a decline in oat area.
Romania	10.8	-0.3	-3	-28	Production is forecast lower due to a decrease in corn yield caused by hot, dry weather.
Hungary	7.5	+0.5	+7	-8	Production is forecast higher as favorable weather boosted corn yield.
EU-15	107.0	+0.5	+0	-2	Production is forecast higher as increases in barley yield for Spain and France more than offset a reduction in barley yield for Germany.
Australia	8.8	+0.4	+5	-4	Production is forecast higher as favorable weather increases barley yield potential.
Thailand	4.5	+0.4	+10	+15	Production is forecast higher as generally favorable weather and continued use of high-yielding varieties increased corn yield.

RICE (MILLED BASIS)

	----- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	378 .7	-7.6	-2	-2	Production is forecast lower as a decrease in the total category more than offsets an increase in the United States.
United States	5.9	+0.1	+2	+1	Production is forecast higher due to an increase in yield.
Total Foreign	372.8	-7.7	-2	-2	Production is estimated lower due to reductions in China, India, South Korea, Bangladesh, and Japan.
China	132.0	-6.0	-4	-6	Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in area and yield. Continued flooding has reduced the late rice crop.
India	83.0	-0.5	-1	-1	Production is forecast lower as yield is reduced due to below normal rainfall in East Madhya Pradesh and Orissa and flooding in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
South Korea	4.7	-0.5	-10	-14	Production is forecast lower due to excessive rainfall that reduced yield.
Bangladesh	18.7	-0.3	-2	+0	Production is forecast lower as area and yield are reduced due to flooding.
Japan	8.1	-0.2	-2	-11	Production is forecast lower as yield is reduced due to heavy rains and cool temperatures in the northeastern growing region.

OILSEEDS

	----- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	290.8	+2.7	+1	+1	Production is estimated higher due to increases in the United States and the total foreign category.
United States	88.1	+2.1	+2	+5	Production is estimated at a record based on improved yield prospects for soybeans and a higher area for peanuts, more than offsetting reduced yield and area estimates for cottonseed.
Total Foreign	202.7	+0.6	+0	-0	Production is estimated higher as increases in Argentina, Australia and India more than offset decreases in Brazil, China, and Romania.
OILSEEDS, continued
	----- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
Argentina	23.4	+1.0	+4	-6	Production is forecast up due to higher relative profitability of soybeans and sunflowers versus wheat and corn.
Australia	2.9	+0.4	+15	+60	Production is forecast higher based on revised area estimates and reports of favorable rainfall.
India	27.0	+0.3	+1	+5	Production is estimated higher based on an upward revision in soybean area.
Brazil	29.8	-0.5	-2	-6	Production is forecast down as lower soybean prices are expected to result in a reduction in planted area.
China	40.6	-0.4	-1	-7	Production is forecast lower because unfavorable weather has reduced yield prospects for soybeans and cottonseed.
Romania	1.1	-0.3	-19	+11	Production is estimated lower due to a downward revision in sunflower area.

PALM OIL

	----- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MMT	MMT	(%)	(%)
World	18.2	+0.1	+0	+2	Production is estimated higher due to an increase in Cameroon.
Cameroon	0.2	+0.1	+83	+3	Production is estimted higher based on revisions in the data series.

COTTON

	---- 1998/99 -----
Country	Current Estimate	Monthly Change	Monthly Change	Change from 1997/98	Comments
	MBALES	MBALES	(%)	(%)
World Total	85 .3	-0.8	-1	-6	Production is forecast lower due decreases in both the United States and the total foreign category.
United States	13.6	-0.7	-5	-28	Production is estimated lower due to hot and dry conditions in most of the cotton belt, lowering yield potential.
Total Foreign	71.8	-0.1	-0	-1	Production is forecast slightly lower due to decreases in China and Greece which more than offset higher output in Australia and Egypt.
China	18.8	-0.7	-4	-11	Production is estimated lower based on reduced yield potential due to heavy flooding in the lower Yangtze River Valley.
Greece	1.6	-0.2	-9	+3	Production is estimated lower as cool, wet weather early in the growing season cut yield potential.
Australia	3.2	+0.4	+14	+4	Production is estimated up due to an expansion in sown area resulting from increased water supplies.
Egypt	1.4	+0.2	+15	-11	Production is forecast higher due to increased sown area and improved yield potential as favorable weather during the growing season aided plant development.