In Memoriam
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is saddened by the death of one of its employees, Evans Onsongo, as a result of the terrorist bombing of the American Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, on August 7, 1998. Mr. Onsongo, a Kenyan working as an FAS agricultural specialist, was one of the many casualties in the tragedy. He is survived by his wife and two children. Two other FAS employeesLydia Mbithi, the office secretary, and Moses Kinyua, the clerk-messenger for the Nairobi office, were seriously injured. Marketing Specialist Carol Ngugi was injured, but she was treated and released.
This is the first time in recent memory than an FAS employee has been killed in the line of duty. Mr. Onsongo was a dedicated employee who gathered vital information for USDA's worldwide information system by analyzing agricultural production, supply, and distribution. By serving as a key analyst, he also became well-known among farmers and producers in his homeland, becoming an important resource for the FAS office. With his leadership and diplomacy, Onsongo helped to forge a link between FAS and local farmers in Kenya.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99
August 1998
WHEAT
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| World | 597 .7 | -3.7 | -1 | -2 | Production is forecast lower this month as a decrease in the total foreign category more than offset an increase in the United States. |
| United States | 69.4 | +0.7 | +1 | +1 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in yield. Yield is at a record and output is the highest since 1990/91. |
| Total Foreign | 528.3 | -4.4 | -1 | -3 | Production is forecast lower as decreases in Russia, China, Ukraine, Kazakstan, Romania, and South Africa more than offset increases in the EU-15, Australia, Afghanistan, Brazil, Morocco, and Yugoslavia. |
| China | 110.0 | -8.0 | -7 | -11 | Production is forecast lower due to a preliminary official report for winter wheat indicating lower yield. |
| Ukraine | 15.0 | -1.5 | -9 | -18 | Production is forecast lower as heavy rains in the west and dry, hot weather in the east reduced winter wheat yield. |
| Kazakstan | 6.5 | -1.5 | -19 | -27 | Production is forecast lower as persistent hot, dry weather during heading and flowering reduced yield prospects. |
| Romania | 5.2 | -0.5 | -9 | -28 | Production is forecast down as harvest results indicate lower yield. |
| South Africa | 2.1 | -0.5 | -19 | -8 | Production is forecast lower as weak prices reduced area below last season's level. |
| EU -15 | 103.3 | +2.2 | +2 | +9 | Production is forecast at a record due to increases in yield for France and Spain which more than offset declines in the United Kingdom and Germany. |
| Australia | 21.5 | +1.5 | +8 | +16 | Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather across most of the growing areas. |
| Afghanistan | 2.8 | +1.1 | +65 | +3 | Production is forecast at a record level. Also, data for previous years have been revised. |
| Uzbekistan | 3.5 | +0.5 | +17 | +13 | Production is forecast higher as preliminary harvest results indicate an increase in yield. |
| Brazil | 2.6 | +0.4 | +19 | -10 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in area and yield. The weather has been generally favorable. |
WHEAT, continued |
|||||
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| Yugoslavia | 5.1 | +0.5 | +11 | +2 | Production is forecast higher due to harvest reports in Serbia indicating an increase in yield. |
| Morocco | 4.4 | +0.4 | +10 | +90 | Production is forecast up due to official reports indicating higher yield. |
COARSE GRAINS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| World | 893.9 | -4.7 | -1 | +0 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and total foreign category. |
| United States | 268.1 | -0.9 | -0 | +1 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in corn, oats, and barley which more than offset an increase in sorghum. |
| Total Foreign | 625.8 | -3.9 | -1 | -0 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria; however, output in the EU-15 increased. |
| Russia | 26.9 | -2.6 | -9 | -34 | Production is forecast lower as persistent hot, dry weather in the Volga Valley and Urals reduced barley and corn yield. |
| Ukraine | 12.8 | -0.7 | -5 | -17 | Production is forecast lower due to hot, dry weather that reduced corn yield potential. Area for barley, oats, and rye are revised higher based on official area statistics. |
| Romania | 11.1 | -0.5 | -4 | -26 | Production is forecast lower as below-normal rainfall and hot temperatures negatively affected the corn crop. |
| Bulgaria | 1.8 | -0.3 | -15 | -26 | Production is forecast lower due to hot, dry weather that negatively affected corn yield potential. |
| Kazakstan | 2.0 | -0.3 | -12 | -37 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in barley and oat yields. The crops were stressed by hot, dry weather this month. |
COARSE GRAINS, continued |
|||||
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| EU-15 | 106.5 | +1.3 | +1 | -3 | Production is forecast higher as increases for corn in Italy and barley in France and Spain more than offset a decrease for barley in the United Kingdom and Germany. Also, rye production in Germany is reduced, while oat output in Spain is increased. |
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| World | 386.3 | -1.6 | -0 | +0 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 5.8 | -0.4 | -6 | -1 | Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in yield. |
| Total Foreign | 380.5 | -1.3 | -0 | +0 | Production is forecast lower this month due to a reduction in China which more than offset an increase in Thailand. Production is forecast at a record. |
| China | 138.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -2 | Production is forecast lower due to reductions in area and yield. Reports of lower early-rice area and the affects of flooding reduced area and yield forecasts. |
| Thailand | 14.8 | +0.2 | +1 | NC | Production is forecast higher due to increased area for the main-season crop and an upward revision of last year's second-season crop. |
OILSEEDS
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| World | 288.1 | -0.2 | -0 | +0 | Production is forecast lower this month as a decrease in the United States more than offset an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 86.0 | -0.5 | -1 | +2 | Production is forecast lower this month due to decreases in soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed. |
OILSEEDS, continued |
|||||
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| Total Foreign | 202.1 | +0.3 | +0 | -0 | Production is estimated marginally higher primarily because of an increase in Argentina. |
| Argentina | 22.5 | +0.2 | +1 | -10 | Production is forecast higher based on an increased yield for sunflowerseed. |
PALM OIL
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| World | 18 .1 | +0.3 | +2 | +2 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in Indonesia. |
| Indonesia | 6.0 | +0.3 | +5 | +4 | Production is forecast at a record based on an expansion in palm oil area. |
COTTON
Country |
--------- Current Estimate |
1998/99 Monthly |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| World Total | 86.2 | -0.2 | -0 | -6 | Production is forecast down due to a decrease in the United States. |
| United States | 14.3 | -0.7 | -5 | -24 | Production is forecast lower as hot, dry conditions during the growing season reduced area and yield potential. |
| Total Foreign | 71.9 | +0.6 | +1 | -1 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in Turkey, Australia, Mali, Tajikistan, and Kazakstan which more than offset declines in Argentina and Cote d'Ivoire. |
| Turkey | 3.7 | +0.3 | +9 | -3 | Production is forecast higher as favorable growing conditions prevailed over the cotton areas offsetting the less-than-desirable cool, wet weather during early plant development. |
| Australia | 2.8 | +0.2 | +8 | -8 | Production is forecast higher due to an expansion in sown area as irrigation water supplies have increased. |
COTTON, continued |
|||||
Country |
--------- Current Estimate |
1998/99 Monthly |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
|
Comments |
| Mali | 1.1 | +0.2 | +17 | +6 | Production is forecast higher as recent rains improved yield potential. |
| Tajikistan | 0.6 | +0.1 | +20 | +20 | Production is forecast higher due to improved yield potential as fertilizers and other inputs have become more available to farmers. |
| Kazakstan | 0.4 | +0.1 | +40 | +23 | Production is forecast higher mainly due to increased area. |
| Argentina | 1.6 | -0.1 | -6 | +23 | Production is forecast lower as sown area is adjusted downward. |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 0.7 | -0.1 | -13 | -3 | Production is forecast lower as recent dry conditions reduced yield potential. |
