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Production Highlights
June1998
WHEAT
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1997/98 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 598.6 | +1.7 | +0 | -2 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in the United States and total foreign category. |
| United States | 65.1 | +1.0 | +2 | -5 | Production is forecast higher based on an increase in the yield for winter wheat. |
| Total Foreign | 533.5 | +0.7 | +0 | -1 | Production is forecast higher as output increases in Australia, Pakistan, and EU-15 more than offset a decrease in Russia. |
| Australia | 20.0 | +1.0 | +5 | +8 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in area. Weather has been generally favorable and planting is well underway. |
| Pakistan | 18.5 | +1.0 | +6 | +11 | Production is forecast at a record due to increases in area and yield. A favorable growing season and increased inputs resulted in a record yield. |
| EU-15 | 100.1 | +0.4 | +0 | +6 | Production is forecast at a record as cool, wet weather in Spain boosted yield. |
| Brazil | 2.2 | +0.2 | +8 | -24 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in area. Planting has commenced. |
| Bangladesh | 1.7 | +0.2 | +10 | +10 | Production is forecast higher based on favorable weather which increased yield. |
| Russia | 38.0 | -2.0 | -5 | -14 | Production is forecast lower as weather-related spring-grains planting difficulties in the Urals and Siberia are expected to reduce area. |
COARSE GRAINS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1997/98 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 906.7 | -0.1 | -0 | +2 | Production is forecast higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 269.9 | NC | NC | +2 | Production is unchanged this month. |
| Total Foreign | 636.9 | -0.1 | -0 | +2 | Production is forecast marginally lower as reductions in Russia and Australia more than offset an increase in the EU-15. |
| Russia | 36.5 | -1.0 | -3 | -11 | Production is forecast lower as wet weather in the Urals and western Siberia is expected to prevent some barley plantings. |
| Australia | 8.4 | -0.5 | -6 | -3 | Production is forecast lower based on an ABARE report, reducing barley area. |
| Syria | 1.2 | -0.4 | -25 | -5 | Production is forecast lower as dry weather in March negatively affected barley yield for the rainfed crop. |
| EU-15 | 104.4 | +1.0 | +1 | -4 | Production is forecast higher due to favorable cool, wet weather which increased barley yield potential in Spain. |
RICE (MILLED BASED)
RICE (MILLED BASED) FORECAST FOR 1998/99: World
production is forecast at a record 387.0 million tons, up 3.8
million or 1 percent from 1997/98. Foreign production for 1998/99
is forecast at record 381.0 million tons, up 3.7 million or 1
percent from 1997/98. Rice production in the United States is
forecast at 6.0 million, up 0.1 million or 2 percent from
1997/98.
OILSEEDS
OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1998/99: World oilseed production
is forecast at 288.1 million tons, up 2.1 million or 1 percent
from 1997/98. Foreign production for 1998/99 is forecast at a
record 202.3 million tons, up 0.6 million or less than 1 percent
from last year. Total oilseed production in the United States is
forecast at a record 85.8 million tons, up 1.6 million or 2
percent from last year, but down 0.4 million from last month due
to a reduction in cottonseed.
COTTON
COTTON FORECAST FOR 1998/99: World cotton production is
forecast at 86.5 million bales, unchanged from last month as
larger prospective foreign production offsets the lower U.S. crop
projection. World production is down 3.5 million bales or 4
percent from 1997/98. United States production is forecast at
15.7 million bales, down 1.0 million from last month, due to
adverse early-seasonal weather in California and Texas. United
States production is down 3.1 million or 16 percent from 1997/98.
Total foreign production is forecast at 70.8 million bales, up
1.0 million or 1 percent from last month, but down 0.4 million
from 1997/98.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98
WHEAT
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 609.6 | -1.1 | -0 | +5 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 68.8 | NC | NC | +11 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 540.8 | -1.1 | -0 | +4 | Production is estimated lower due to reductions in Mexico and Australia. |
COARSE GRAINS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 892.4 | -5.1 | -1 | -2 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 265.4 | NC | NC | -1 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 627.0 | -5.1 | -1 | -2 | Production is estimated lower due to reductions in corn output in China and the Philippines. |
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 383.2 | +2.9 | +1 | +1 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 5.8 | NC | NC | +7 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 377.4 | +2.9 | +1 | +1 | Production is estimated higher due to increases in China, India, and Australia. |
| China | 140.0 | +1.5 | +1 | +3 | Production is estimated at a record based on a report from the Chinese State Statistical Bureau indicating record yield. |
| India | 83.5 | +1.5 | +2 | +3 | Production is estimated at a record due to official reports increasing yield to a record level. |
| Australia | 1.0 | +0.1 | +9 | -4 | Production is estimated higher based on an ABARE report indicating higher yield. |
| Brazil | 5.8 | -0.2 | -3 | -10 | Production is estimated lower as yield is reduced resulting from dry weather in the north and excessive wet conditions in the southern growing areas. |
| Philippines | 6.7 | -0.1 | -1 | -8 | Production is estimated lower as area is reduced, based on El Niņo-related dry weather. |
OILSEEDS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 286.0 | +2.6 | +1 | +9 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 84.2 | NC | NC | +13 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 201.7 | +2.6 | +1 | +8 | Production is estimated higher as increases in China, Argentina, Italy, and Spain more than offset decreases in Uzbekistan and Hungary. |
| China | 43.4 | +1.7 | +4 | +5 | Production is estimated up based on a higher soybean estimate by the Chinese State Statistical Bureau. |
| Argentina | 23.2 | +0.9 | +4 | +33 | Production is forecast higher due to favorable soybean harvest results which were partially offset by a poorer outlook for cottonseed. |
| Spain | 1.6 | +0.5 | +38 | +17 | Production is estimated higher. Favorable rains resulted in a record sunflower yield. |
| Italy | 1.8 | +0.1 | +8 | +23 | Production is estimated higher based on increased soybean area resulting from strong demand for oilseeds. |
| Uzbekistan | 1.9 | -0.5 | -20 | -7 | Production is estimated lower based on a reduced estimate of the cottonseed to lint ratio. |
| Hungary | 0.7 | -0.2 | -18 | -27 | Production is estimated lower because of excessive precipitation at harvest which reduced sunflowerseed output. |
PALM OIL
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 17.4 | -0.1 | -0 | -0 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in Malaysia. |
| Malaysia | 8.6 | -0.1 | -1 | -5 | Production is estimated lower due to lower than expected output in recent months. |
COTTON
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MBALES |
1997/98 Monthly Change MBALES |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World Total | 90.0 | +1.4 | +2 | +1 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 18.8 | NC | NC | -1 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 71.2 | +1.4 | +2 | +1 | Production is estimated higher primarily due to increases in China, which more than offset lower production mainly in Argentina. |
| China | 21.1 | +1.4 | +7 | +9 | Production is forecast higher based on a report from the Chinese State Statistical Bureau indicating a record yield. |
| Burkina Faso | 0.6 | +0.1 | +27 | +56 | Production is estimated higher due to harvest results indicating higher area and record yield. |
| Zambia | 0.2 | +0.1 | +100 | +167 | Production is forecast up as harvest results indicate a record yield. |
| Argentina | 1.2 | -0.2 | -14 | -20 | Production is estimated lower due to reduced yield caused by unfavorable weather. |