WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PART 1:
May 1998
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of
agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of
foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results
of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and
production are from the USDA's Agricultural Statistics Board,
except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;
because of this numbers may not add to totals because of
rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in
the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-338) May 12, 1998.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop
Assessment Division (PECAD), FAS/USDA, AgStop 1045, Washington,
DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to
the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202)
720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on June 15, 1998.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1998/99
May 1998
WHEAT
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1997/98 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 597.0 | NA | NA | -2 | Production is forecast lower due to reductions in the United States and total foreign category. |
| United States | 64.1 | NA | NA | -7 | Production is forecast down due to a decrease in area and yield. |
| Total Foreign | 532.8 | NA | NA | -2 | Production is forecast lower due mainly to reductions in Argentina, FSU-12, Eastern Europe, and India. |
| Brazil | 2.0 | NA | NA | -29 | Production is forecast down due to reduced area and yield, owing to low domestic prices. |
| Romania | 5.7 | NA | NA | -21 | Production is forecast lower due to reductions in area and yield. Area is down as unusually cold weather in the fall stalled sowing operations. |
| Argentina | 12.0 | NA | NA | -18 | Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and yield prospects. Weak prices and a delayed soybean harvest, due to excessively wet weather, lowers area potential. |
| Hungary | 4.5 | NA | NA | -15 | Production is forecast lower as a dry fall and winter limit yield potential. |
| Ukraine | 16.5 | NA | NA | -10 | Production is forecast lower as a wet fall and a delayed corn harvest reduced area. Yield prospects are similar to last season's level. |
| Russia | 40.0 | NA | NA | -10 | Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and a return to more average yield. |
| Kazakstan | 8.0 | NA | NA | -8 | Production is forecast lower due to reduced area as marginal land continues to be taken out of production. |
| China | 118.0 | NA | NA | -5 | Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and potential yield as a dry fall negatively affected germination. |
| Mexico | 3.6 | NA | NA | -5 | Production is forecast lower as yield is projected below last season's record level. |
WHEAT, continued
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1997/98 (%) |
Comments |
| India | 67.0 | NA | NA | -3 | Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and yield. Heavy fall rains have limited area and reduced yield potential. |
| Baltic States | 1.5 | NA | NA | -3 | Production is forecast slightly lower as yield is projected below last year level. |
| Canada | 24.0 | NA | NA | -1 | Production is forecast lower as area declines due to weak prices. Yield is projected to be near average. |
| Australia | 19.0 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged as both area and yield are expected to equal year-earlier levels. Planting conditions are generally favorable. |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged due to a Government production quota. |
| Morocco | 4.0 | NA | NA | +73 | Production is forecast higher as output rebounds from last season's drought. Area and yield are higher, but a mid-season dry period has reduced yield potential. |
| Tunisia | 1.2 | NA | NA | +33 | Production is forecast higher due to increased area and yield, although above-average rainfall delayed plantings. |
| Iran | 11.0 | NA | NA | +10 | Production is forecast higher due to generally favorable weather. Area and yield are above last year's level. |
| EU-15 | 99.7 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is forecast at a record due to favorable yield prospects for France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. |
| Poland | 8.6 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is forecast higher as favorable weather increased yield potential. |
| Pakistan | 17.5 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is forecast higher due to increased area and higher yield. Input use is reportedly greater this season. |
| Turkey | 16.5 | NA | NA | +3 | Production is forecast higher as area is shifted from barley to wheat. Favorable weather has lifted potential yield. |
COARSE GRAINS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1997/98 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 906.8 | NA | NA | +1 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in the United States and total foreign category. |
| United States | 269.9 | NA | NA | +2 | Production is forecast higher as increases in corn, barley, and oats offset a decrease in sorghum output. |
| Total Foreign | 636.9 | NA | NA | +1 | Production is forecast higher due mainly to increases in China and Brazil. |
| Brazil | 35.8 | NA | NA | +13 | Production is forecast higher as demand for corn is projected to result in increased area. Yield is forecast to be near-average. |
| Thailand | 4.1 | NA | NA | +11 | Production is forecast higher due to area and yield increases for corn. |
| China | 135.0 | NA | NA | +10 | Production is forecast higher as corn area and yield are increased over last season's drought-reduced level. |
| Canada | 26.9 | NA | NA | +6 | Production is forecast higher due to increased output of barley, corn, and oats. Oat planting intentions are up almost 15 percent from last year. |
| South Africa | 9.0 | NA | NA | +6 | Production is forecast higher as corn yield returns to an average level while area remains mostly unchanged. |
| Mexico | 25.8 | NA | NA | +6 | Production is forecast higher due to increases in sorghum and corn area. |
| Indonesia | 6.0 | NA | NA | +5 | Production is forecast up due to increased corn area and yield from 1997/98's drought-reduced level. Continuing use of high-yielding varieties should increase yield potential. |
| Australia | 8.9 | NA | NA | +0 | Production is forecast nearly unchanged as barley area and yield are mostly unchanged from last season. |
| Turkey | 10.1 | NA | NA | NC | Production is forecast unchanged from last season as a decrease in barley area is offset by an increase in yield. |
| Kazakstan | 2.3 | NA | NA | -28 | Production is forecast down due to a reduction in barley area. |
| Romania | 11.4 | NA | NA | -24 | Production is forecast lower as corn yield is projected down from last season's robust level. |
COARSE GRAINS, continued
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1998/99 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1997/98 (%) |
Comments |
| Hungary | 7.0 | NA | NA | -14 | Production is forecast down as corn yield returns to an average level. |
| Ukraine | 13.5 | NA | NA | -12 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases mainly in barley and corn. |
| Argentina | 22.2 | NA | NA | -8 | Production is forecast lower as corn yield is forecast below the 1997/98 record level. |
| Russia | 37.5 | NA | NA | -8 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in barley, oats, rye, and corn. |
| EU-15 | 103.4 | NA | NA | -5 | Production is forecast down from last season's record as some barley area is switched to wheat. |
| Poland | 16.8 | NA | NA | -3 | Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in area for barley. Yield is expected to be similar to 1997/98. |
RICE (MILLED BASED)
RICE (MILLED BASED) FORECAST FOR 1998/99: World
production is forecast at a record 387.0 million tons, up 6.6
million or 2 percent from 1997/98. Foreign production for 1998/99
is forecast at 381.0 million tons, up 6.6 million or 2 percent
from 1997/98. Rice production in the United States is forecast at
6.0 million, up 0.1 million or 2 percent from 1997/98.
OILSEEDS
OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1998/99: World oilseed production
is forecast at 288.5 million tons, up 5.2 million or 2 percent
from 1997/98. Foreign production for 1998/99 is forecast at a
record 202.3 million tons, up 3.2 million or 2 percent from last
year. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast
at a record 86.2 million tons, up 1.9 million or 2 percent from
last year.
COTTON
COTTON FORECAST FOR 1998/99: World cotton production is
forecast at 86.5 million bales, down 2.1 million or 2 percent
from 1997/98. Total foreign production is forecast at 69.8
million bales, about equal to 1997/98. United States production
is forecast at 16.7 million bales, down 2.1 million or 11 percent
from 1997/98.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98
May 1998
WHEAT
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 610.7 | +0.9 | +0 | +5 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 68.8 | NC | NC | +11 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 541.9 | +0.9 | +0 | +4 | Production is estimated higher due to increases mainly in Argentina and FSU-12. |
COARSE GRAINS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 897.5 | -1.4 | -0 | -1 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 265.4 | NC | NC | -1 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 632.1 | -1.4 | -0 | -1 | Production is estimated lower as a decline in Brazil's corn output more than offset an increase Argentina's corn crop. |
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 380.3 | -1.1 | -0 | +0 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 5.8 | NC | NC | +7 | No change this month. |
| Total Foreign | 374.5 | -1.1 | -0 | -0 | Production is estimated lower due to reductions in Brazil, Vietnam, the Philippines, Argentina, and Uruguay. |
| Brazil | 6.0 | -0.5 | -8 | -9 | Production is estimated lower due to a decline in area and yield caused by excessive rainfall in southern growing areas and drought in the northern regions. |
| Vietnam | 17.8 | -0.2 | -1 | -1 | Production is estimated lower as unfavorable hot, dry weather in the Red River Delta reduced yield potential during the growing season. In addition, recent dryness in the Mekong River Delta has delayed planting. |
| Philippines | 6.8 | -0.2 | -3 | -6 | Production is estimated lower as below-normal rainfall reduced area and yield prospects. |
| Argentina | 0.6 | -0.2 | -24 | -25 | Production is estimated lower as excessive rainfall and flooding has reduced area and yield. |
| Uruguay | 0.6 | -0.1 | -12 | -16 | Production is estimated lower as excessive rainfall has damaged fields, reducing area and yield. |
OILSEEDS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 283.3 | +0.6 | +0 | +8 | Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category which more than offset a decline in the United States. |
| United States | 84.2 | -0.3 | -0 | +13 | Production is estimate down due to 1997 cotton ginning results. |
| Total Foreign | 199.1 | +0.9 | +0 | +7 | Production is estimated higher as increases in China and Brazil more than offset decreases in Argentina and Paraguay. |
| China | 41.7 | +0.8 | +2 | +1 | Production is forecast up based on a higher peanut estimate by the Chinese State Statistical Bureau. |
| Brazil | 31.5 | +0.7 | +2 | +15 | Production is forecast higher as harvest results indicate increased yield. |
| Argentina | 22.3 | -0.3 | -1 | +28 | Production is forecast lower as heavy and persistent rainfall at harvest reduced yield prospects for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. |
| Paraguay | 2.9 | -0.2 | -7 | -1 | Production is forecast down because of persistent rainfall during the soybean and cotton harvest. |
PALM OIL
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 Monthly Change MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 17.5 | -0.1 | -1 | +0 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in Malaysia. |
| Malaysia | 8.7 | -0.1 | -1 | -3 | Production is estimated lower due to official reports of reduced output in recent months. |
COTTON
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MBALES |
1997/98 Monthly Change MBALES |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World Total | 88.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -1 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and total foreign category. |
| United States | 18.8 | -0.0 | -0 | -1 | Production is forecast down due to slight revisions in area and yield. |
| Total Foreign | 69.8 | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in Argentina and Brazil, which more than offset higher production in Australia. |
| Argentina | 1.4 | -0.5 | -26 | -6 | Production is forecast lower due to heavy, prolonged rainfall in the main cotton area, reducing both area and potential yield. |
| Brazil | 1.8 | -0.1 | -5 | +38 | Production is forecast lower due to persistent rainfall in the southern states of Parana and Sao Paulo, reducing potential yield. |
| Australia | 3.1 | +0.1 | +3 | +11 | Production is forecast up as harvest results indicate a higher yield. |